Florida thread for potential cold outbreaks

[boca]

I know that Texas might have a potential cold weather situation that might rival 1989. What about Florida, will it move east and affect our citrus belt areas too. The reason why I started this thread is to keep up with Florida weather just like the Texas thread.

[Aquawind]

Were back to normal around here. Feels good for a change! Still high's in the 60's an 70's down here. Yeahhh Winter has finaly arrived! I think we will have a frost threat or 2 down here yet this year. Heck inland it's in the 30's this morning with alot of winter left.

[NDG]

I don't see any subfreezing weather making its way down to Central or Southern FL, I see more of a normal El Nino pattern coming back, rainy and cool periods at times. The way the PV and trough's axis is setting up over the next couple of weeks, it will keep a strong SW subtropical jet over FL.

[Patrick99]

Wow, we finally got back down to normal for this time of year. hehe

[Ed1]

My low this morning in Central FL was 37.2 F at 7:46am ET

[Burn1]

Looks like another little shot of cool air Monday, Tuesday etc.... Then it's back under the protection of the SE ridge which has been so constant this winter and keeping our temps way above normal.... We should be back to above average temps end of next week while central and eastern U.S. possibly fall under coldest temps in a long time....

[cpdaman]

not so sure about that SE ridge comeback just yet


MIAMI NOAA DISC

says that after a cold front sweeps thru sunday morning a cool spell will last thru tuesday and then there are indications a warm front will move back up thru cent florida circa wednesdayISH BEFORE another cold front slips south of the area

[boca]

Any more arctic fronts for Florida? The Euro thinks so the GFS doesn't. Tallahasse discussion said that we might go back to a zonal flow late next week due to the fact that the high which is over Western Canada will pinch off in Alaska and allow the pacific jet to take over once again.

[gatorcane]

Any more arctic fronts for Florida? The Euro thinks so the GFS doesn't. Tallahasse discussion said that we might go back to a zonal flow late next week due to the fact that the high which is over Western Canada will pinch off in Alaska and allow the pacific jet to take over once again.

I do expect Feb to be below normal temps for Florida. But that is just based on it being so warm this winter. Mother nature *usually* finds a way to balance things out....

You can thank El Nino for keeping lows only in the mid to upper 40s along the metro SE Coast of Florida last night (when forecasters were calling for lower 40s).....el nino shot shot moisture from the EPAC over the GOM into Florida....

So I don't expect any major freezes in South Florida the rest of this year. Maybe one more threat for central inland Florida (Orlando area, Lakeland, etc)...

[NDG]

Early to middle of next week has to be watched, the subtropical jet enhanced by El Nino saved central FL last night from freezing temps, I don't know about next week though, if it will be there for us, let see if during the next few days the models keep it over us or not.

[LarryWx]

Nonweak El Nino climo since the 1800's says the chances of a major citrus freeze are minimal. Out of ~20 nonweak El Nino winters since 1877, only one (5%) has produced a major citrus freeze. I assume this low % is due to the too strong subtropical jet. That being said, that doesn't mean it can't happen obviously. It just means that the chances are quite low based on El Nino history, which makes sense due to the stronger than normal subtropical jet. So, the relatively (not absolutely) safe prediction would be to say no major freeze this winter.

[Wacahootaman]

What has been most disappointing about this El Nino winter is the lack of predicted rainfall in north central Florida. It seems rain is passing north of us in the panhandle or across southern Georgia.

Ocala had just over 50 percent of rainfall for 2006 and with the exception of a front between Christmas and New Years, the fronts have dropped minimal rainfall.

I was hoping for a lot more rain. If you are gonna have the clouds and the cold why not get the rain too?

[HURRICANELONNY]

I live about 5 miles from the stadium. I'm hoping the weather is dry for the game. Looking at the long range it doesn't look to good but it's long range and the GFS usually is wrong. Everytime they say rain for the weekend during the middle of the week I know it will be a nice weekend. So I think the front will clear enough to be a nice SuperBowl:
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale