Possible January 23-31, 2007 Cold Period: Some Thoughts
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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donsutherland1
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The overall snowfall idea seems to be in good shape, so far.
My final estimates for the lowest readings on Friday are as follows:
Allentown: 9°
Baltimore: 15°
Boston: 8°
Burlington: -5°
Harrisburg: 11°
Hartford: 5°
New York City: 12°
Newark: 12°
Philadelphia: 13°
Providence: 9°
Richmond: 19°
Washington, DC: DCA: 16°; IAD: 14°
Worcester: 3°
My final estimates for the lowest readings on Friday are as follows:
Allentown: 9°
Baltimore: 15°
Boston: 8°
Burlington: -5°
Harrisburg: 11°
Hartford: 5°
New York City: 12°
Newark: 12°
Philadelphia: 13°
Providence: 9°
Richmond: 19°
Washington, DC: DCA: 16°; IAD: 14°
Worcester: 3°
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Extremeweatherguy
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hmm.. this is interesting. Check out the forecast difference between the Weather Channel and the National Weather Service for the high in New York and Boston tomorrow:
NEW YORK CITY
Weather channel - 25
NWS - 19
BOSTON
Weather Channel - 16
NWS - 12
Seems like someone (The Weather Channel) is being a little warm biased to me.
NEW YORK CITY
Weather channel - 25
NWS - 19
BOSTON
Weather Channel - 16
NWS - 12
Seems like someone (The Weather Channel) is being a little warm biased to me.
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donsutherland1
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Extremeweatherguy,
The NWS is sticking mainly to the operational guidance. The Weather Channel is leaning heavily on a blend of the MOS.
MOS:
Boston: ETA: 18; MAV: 18
New York City: ETA: 27; MAV: 24
Operational GFS:
Boston: 10
New York City: 20
With low-level Arctic air, one should probably see the operational guidance work out better than the MOS. If I were venturing a guess for the highs, I'd go with 22 in NYC and 14 in Boston (just after midnight).
The NWS is sticking mainly to the operational guidance. The Weather Channel is leaning heavily on a blend of the MOS.
MOS:
Boston: ETA: 18; MAV: 18
New York City: ETA: 27; MAV: 24
Operational GFS:
Boston: 10
New York City: 20
With low-level Arctic air, one should probably see the operational guidance work out better than the MOS. If I were venturing a guess for the highs, I'd go with 22 in NYC and 14 in Boston (just after midnight).
Last edited by donsutherland1 on Thu Jan 25, 2007 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Extremeweatherguy
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donsutherland1
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So far, my thinking with respect to the magnitude of the cold appears to be on course.
1) At 8 pm the temperatures in a number of the cities were running at or below the 18z MAV forecast for 3z (10 pm EST). Those cities from the larger sample for which I made my estimates yesterday and earlier today are:
Boston: 17° (MAV 3z Forecast: 19°)
Harrisburg: 23° ((MAV 3z Forecast: 23°)
Hartford: 15° (MAV 3z Forecast: 16°)
New York City: 23° (MAV 3z Forecast: 23°)
Providence: 19° (MAV 3z Forecast: 19°)
Washington, DC: DCA: 27° (MAV 3z Forecast: 28°); IAD: 25° (MAV 3z Forecast: 25°)
Worcester: 11° (MAV 3z Forecast: 11°)
So, for the most part, my forecast, which is colder than that shown on the 18z MAV still appears reasonable.
My final estimates for the lowest readings on Friday posted earlier were:
Allentown: 9°
Baltimore: 15°
Boston: 8°
Burlington: -5°
Harrisburg: 11°
Hartford: 5°
New York City: 12°
Newark: 12°
Philadelphia: 13°
Providence: 9°
Richmond: 19°
Washington, DC: DCA: 16°; IAD: 14°
Worcester: 3°
For purposes of comparison, the 1/25 18z MAV indicated:
Allentown: 13°
Baltimore: 19°
Boston: 11°
Burlington: -5°
Harrisburg: 18°
Hartford: 7°
New York City: 16°
Newark: 15°
Philadelphia: 19°
Providence: 11°
Richmond: 20°
Washington, DC: DCA: 20°; IAD: 19°
Worcester: 3°
That makes the MAV guidance an average of approximately 3.2° warmer than my thinking. Needless to say, given that 8 pm temperatures in a number of those cities are already running at or below the MAV guidance for 3z, I believe that the numbers I posted remain reasonable.
2) In terms of the snowfall amounts I posted yesterday, as testament to the current relatively dry pattern, a number of places saw even less than what I had anticipated.
Yesterday, I noted:
An Arctic front will push through the region tomorrow, touching off snow showers and some locally-heavier snow squalls. Allentown, Boston, Harrisburg, Hartford, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Providence, and Worcester should all pick up a coating to perhaps an inch of snow.
A few of those places might pick up somewhat more than an inch of snow. The best prospect for that somewhat heavier accumulation exists in Allentown, Harrisburg, Newark, and Philadelphia.
Final Amounts were:
Allentown: Trace
Boston: None
Harrisburg: Trace
Hartford: None
New York City: 0.1" (the "jackpot")
Newark: Trace
Philadelphia: Trace
Providence: None
Worcester Trace
1) At 8 pm the temperatures in a number of the cities were running at or below the 18z MAV forecast for 3z (10 pm EST). Those cities from the larger sample for which I made my estimates yesterday and earlier today are:
Boston: 17° (MAV 3z Forecast: 19°)
Harrisburg: 23° ((MAV 3z Forecast: 23°)
Hartford: 15° (MAV 3z Forecast: 16°)
New York City: 23° (MAV 3z Forecast: 23°)
Providence: 19° (MAV 3z Forecast: 19°)
Washington, DC: DCA: 27° (MAV 3z Forecast: 28°); IAD: 25° (MAV 3z Forecast: 25°)
Worcester: 11° (MAV 3z Forecast: 11°)
So, for the most part, my forecast, which is colder than that shown on the 18z MAV still appears reasonable.
My final estimates for the lowest readings on Friday posted earlier were:
Allentown: 9°
Baltimore: 15°
Boston: 8°
Burlington: -5°
Harrisburg: 11°
Hartford: 5°
New York City: 12°
Newark: 12°
Philadelphia: 13°
Providence: 9°
Richmond: 19°
Washington, DC: DCA: 16°; IAD: 14°
Worcester: 3°
For purposes of comparison, the 1/25 18z MAV indicated:
Allentown: 13°
Baltimore: 19°
Boston: 11°
Burlington: -5°
Harrisburg: 18°
Hartford: 7°
New York City: 16°
Newark: 15°
Philadelphia: 19°
Providence: 11°
Richmond: 20°
Washington, DC: DCA: 20°; IAD: 19°
Worcester: 3°
That makes the MAV guidance an average of approximately 3.2° warmer than my thinking. Needless to say, given that 8 pm temperatures in a number of those cities are already running at or below the MAV guidance for 3z, I believe that the numbers I posted remain reasonable.
2) In terms of the snowfall amounts I posted yesterday, as testament to the current relatively dry pattern, a number of places saw even less than what I had anticipated.
Yesterday, I noted:
An Arctic front will push through the region tomorrow, touching off snow showers and some locally-heavier snow squalls. Allentown, Boston, Harrisburg, Hartford, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Providence, and Worcester should all pick up a coating to perhaps an inch of snow.
A few of those places might pick up somewhat more than an inch of snow. The best prospect for that somewhat heavier accumulation exists in Allentown, Harrisburg, Newark, and Philadelphia.
Final Amounts were:
Allentown: Trace
Boston: None
Harrisburg: Trace
Hartford: None
New York City: 0.1" (the "jackpot")
Newark: Trace
Philadelphia: Trace
Providence: None
Worcester Trace
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donsutherland1
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Comparison of 10 pm EST (3z) temperatures vs. 18z MAV forecast for 3z:
Allentown: 16° (MAV 3z Forecast: 19°)
Baltimore: 24° (MAV 3z Forecast: 26°)
Boston: 12° (MAV 3z Forecast: 19°)
Burlington: 1° (MAV 3z Forecast: 1°)
Harrisburg: 20° ((MAV 3z Forecast: 23°)
Hartford: 12° (MAV 3z Forecast: 16°)
New York City: 19° (MAV 3z Forecast: 23°)
Newark: 19° (MAV 3z Forecast: 22°)
Philadelphia: 20° (MAV 3z Forecast: 26°)
Providence: 17° (MAV 3z Forecast: 19°)
Richmond: 30° (MAV 3z Forecast: 29°)
Washington, DC: DCA: 25° (MAV 3z Forecast: 28°); IAD: 23° (MAV 3z Forecast: 25°)
Worcester: 6° (MAV 3z Forecast: 11°)
Overall, readings are averaging 3.1° colder than the 18z MAV guidance suggested. My forecast was an average of 3.2° colder than the 18z MAV figures.
Allentown: 16° (MAV 3z Forecast: 19°)
Baltimore: 24° (MAV 3z Forecast: 26°)
Boston: 12° (MAV 3z Forecast: 19°)
Burlington: 1° (MAV 3z Forecast: 1°)
Harrisburg: 20° ((MAV 3z Forecast: 23°)
Hartford: 12° (MAV 3z Forecast: 16°)
New York City: 19° (MAV 3z Forecast: 23°)
Newark: 19° (MAV 3z Forecast: 22°)
Philadelphia: 20° (MAV 3z Forecast: 26°)
Providence: 17° (MAV 3z Forecast: 19°)
Richmond: 30° (MAV 3z Forecast: 29°)
Washington, DC: DCA: 25° (MAV 3z Forecast: 28°); IAD: 23° (MAV 3z Forecast: 25°)
Worcester: 6° (MAV 3z Forecast: 11°)
Overall, readings are averaging 3.1° colder than the 18z MAV guidance suggested. My forecast was an average of 3.2° colder than the 18z MAV figures.
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Lowpressure
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donsutherland1
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- Location: New York
Updated snow figures for 1/25 and revised Verification:
On Wednesday, I noted:
An Arctic front will push through the region tomorrow, touching off snow showers and some locally-heavier snow squalls. Allentown, Boston, Harrisburg, Hartford, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Providence, and Worcester should all pick up a coating to perhaps an inch of snow.
A few of those places might pick up somewhat more than an inch of snow. The best prospect for that somewhat heavier accumulation exists in Allentown, Harrisburg, Newark, and Philadelphia.
Final Amounts were:
Allentown: Trace
Boston: None
Harrisburg: 0.5"
Hartford: None
New York City: 0.1"
Newark: Trace
Philadelphia: 0.3" (Philly has now had 1.0" snow this winter!)
Providence: None
Worcester Trace
On Wednesday, I noted:
An Arctic front will push through the region tomorrow, touching off snow showers and some locally-heavier snow squalls. Allentown, Boston, Harrisburg, Hartford, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Providence, and Worcester should all pick up a coating to perhaps an inch of snow.
A few of those places might pick up somewhat more than an inch of snow. The best prospect for that somewhat heavier accumulation exists in Allentown, Harrisburg, Newark, and Philadelphia.
Final Amounts were:
Allentown: Trace
Boston: None
Harrisburg: 0.5"
Hartford: None
New York City: 0.1"
Newark: Trace
Philadelphia: 0.3" (Philly has now had 1.0" snow this winter!)
Providence: None
Worcester Trace
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Extremeweatherguy
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donsutherland1
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Verification of High Temperatures:
With low-level Arctic air, one should probably see the operational guidance work out better than the MOS. If I were venturing a guess for the highs, I'd go with 22 in NYC and 14 in Boston (just after midnight).
Actual Highs:
Boston: 13° (during afterenoon); Error: 1°
New York City: 22° (during afternoon); Error: None
The low temperatures will be verified later, as there's still a chance that Burlington could exceed its early day low of -3°.
With low-level Arctic air, one should probably see the operational guidance work out better than the MOS. If I were venturing a guess for the highs, I'd go with 22 in NYC and 14 in Boston (just after midnight).
Actual Highs:
Boston: 13° (during afterenoon); Error: 1°
New York City: 22° (during afternoon); Error: None
The low temperatures will be verified later, as there's still a chance that Burlington could exceed its early day low of -3°.
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donsutherland1
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Verification:
Lowest temperatures on January 26, 2007
From: January 24:
Allentown: 9°; Actual: 7°; Error: 2°
Baltimore: 15°; Actual: 14°; Error: 1°
Boston: 9°; Actual: 3°; Error: 6°
Burlington: -5°; Actual: -11°; Error: 6°
Harrisburg: 12°; Actual: 11°; Error: 1°
Hartford: 6°; Actual: 1°; Error: 5°
New York City: 12°; Actual: 9°; Error: 3°
Newark: 12°; Actual: 9°; Error: 3°
Philadelphia: 13°; Actual: 10°; Error: 3°
Providence: 10°; Actual: 3°; Error: 7°
Richmond: 18°; Actual: 17°; Error: 1°
Washington, DC:
...DCA: 16°; Actual: 15°; Error: 1°
...IAD: 14°; Actual: 15°; Error: 1°
Worcester: 4°; Actual: -3°; Error: 7°
Average error: 3.4°
From: January 25:
Allentown: 9°; Actual: 7°; Error: 2°
Baltimore: 15°; Actual: 14°; Error: 1°
Boston: 8°; Actual: 3°; Error: 5°
Burlington: -5°; Actual: -11°; Error: 6°
Harrisburg: 11°; Actual: 11°; Error: None
Hartford: 5°; Actual: 1°; Error: 4°
New York City: 12°; Actual: 9°; Error: 3°
Newark: 12°; Actual: 9°; Error: 3°
Philadelphia: 13°; Actual: 10°; Error: 3°
Providence: 9°; Actual: 3°; Error: 6°
Richmond: 19°; Actual: 17°; Error: 2°
Washington, DC:
...DCA: 16°; Actual: 15°; Error: 1°
...IAD: 14°; Actual: 15°; Error: 1°
Worcester: 3°; Actual: -3°; Error: 6°
Average Error: 2.9°
Lowest temperatures on January 26, 2007
From: January 24:
Allentown: 9°; Actual: 7°; Error: 2°
Baltimore: 15°; Actual: 14°; Error: 1°
Boston: 9°; Actual: 3°; Error: 6°
Burlington: -5°; Actual: -11°; Error: 6°
Harrisburg: 12°; Actual: 11°; Error: 1°
Hartford: 6°; Actual: 1°; Error: 5°
New York City: 12°; Actual: 9°; Error: 3°
Newark: 12°; Actual: 9°; Error: 3°
Philadelphia: 13°; Actual: 10°; Error: 3°
Providence: 10°; Actual: 3°; Error: 7°
Richmond: 18°; Actual: 17°; Error: 1°
Washington, DC:
...DCA: 16°; Actual: 15°; Error: 1°
...IAD: 14°; Actual: 15°; Error: 1°
Worcester: 4°; Actual: -3°; Error: 7°
Average error: 3.4°
From: January 25:
Allentown: 9°; Actual: 7°; Error: 2°
Baltimore: 15°; Actual: 14°; Error: 1°
Boston: 8°; Actual: 3°; Error: 5°
Burlington: -5°; Actual: -11°; Error: 6°
Harrisburg: 11°; Actual: 11°; Error: None
Hartford: 5°; Actual: 1°; Error: 4°
New York City: 12°; Actual: 9°; Error: 3°
Newark: 12°; Actual: 9°; Error: 3°
Philadelphia: 13°; Actual: 10°; Error: 3°
Providence: 9°; Actual: 3°; Error: 6°
Richmond: 19°; Actual: 17°; Error: 2°
Washington, DC:
...DCA: 16°; Actual: 15°; Error: 1°
...IAD: 14°; Actual: 15°; Error: 1°
Worcester: 3°; Actual: -3°; Error: 6°
Average Error: 2.9°
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I would imagine it was colder than everyone forecasted..-
donsutherland1
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Verification:
From 1/17/2007:
I believe the lowest readings of the January 23-31 timeframe will be as follows:
Subzero cold in Burlington; Single digits in Boston; Lows near or below 15° in Philadelphia and New York City; Teens in Washington, DC, Richmond, and Atlanta. A single-digit low in either New York City or Philadelphia could not be completely ruled out. Subzero cold in either of these cities is very unlikely.
Coldest Readings:
Atlanta: 18°, 1/29
Boston: 3°, 1/26
Burlington: -15°, 1/27
New York City: 9°, 1/26
Philadelphia: 10°, 1/26
Richmond: 17°, 1/26
Washington, DC (DCA): 16°, 1/26
From 1/17/2007:
I believe the lowest readings of the January 23-31 timeframe will be as follows:
Subzero cold in Burlington; Single digits in Boston; Lows near or below 15° in Philadelphia and New York City; Teens in Washington, DC, Richmond, and Atlanta. A single-digit low in either New York City or Philadelphia could not be completely ruled out. Subzero cold in either of these cities is very unlikely.
Coldest Readings:
Atlanta: 18°, 1/29
Boston: 3°, 1/26
Burlington: -15°, 1/27
New York City: 9°, 1/26
Philadelphia: 10°, 1/26
Richmond: 17°, 1/26
Washington, DC (DCA): 16°, 1/26
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