TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[cajungal]

I was 13 years old in 1989. We hovered around 13 degrees here

Sure you're not confusing Feb '89 with Dec '89?

According to the Corpus NWS records, the Feb 4-8 1989 period the temp did not go above 50. The 4th thru the 6th the high never made it above 34 and the lows were in the upper 20's. In fact on the 6th it never made it above freezing. All of this means the temps were probably colder inland, because the Corpus NWS is pretty close to the bay which influneces the temps one way or another depending on the season. That is the mini outbreak they are talking about, I think.

I am not confusing the dates. It was December 23, 1989. I remember that clearly. We left to go visit my grandparents for Christmas. They lived around Marksville which is in Central Louisiana. A 3 and half hour drive from my home. Our pipes were located in our attic at the time and they burst. We came home to a huge mess. Almost all our ceiling was gone and water everywhere.

[jeff]

Extremeweatherguy,
How can you tell its gonna be cold Wed. - Mon.
I looked at noaa, but I dont understand......
Can you break it down for me

The Mon-Wed time period of next week will be below normal temp. wise but only by 2-5 degrees especially on Mon. Could be looking at a light freeze Monda AM N of I-10. Sub-tropical cloudiness should be back in force by Tuesday and Wed keeping lows up and highs down (highs may run 10 degrees below average).

Extremely amplified high latitude omega block develops toward the middle to end of the week sending arctic surge southward. Would not use the GFS for surface temps. but instead the 500mb pattern supporting an impressive cold air event. While the pattern would spell out potentially historic cold the source region is not all that cold. Real cold should arrive late next week Th-Fr time frame...just how low is still up for debate.

Will not dabble in the winter precip. prospects just yet as my head still hurts from the last event ...although one trend seems to be arctic air masses in TX come with a winter precip. threat almost every time.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I was 13 years old in 1989. We hovered around 13 degrees here

Sure you're not confusing Feb '89 with Dec '89?

According to the Corpus NWS records, the Feb 4-8 1989 period the temp did not go above 50. The 4th thru the 6th the high never made it above 34 and the lows were in the upper 20's. In fact on the 6th it never made it above freezing. All of this means the temps were probably colder inland, because the Corpus NWS is pretty close to the bay which influneces the temps one way or another depending on the season. That is the mini outbreak they are talking about, I think.

I am not confusing the dates. It was December 23, 1989. I remember that clearly. We left to go visit my grandparents for Christmas. They lived around Marksville which is in Central Louisiana. A 3 and half hour drive from my home. Our pipes were located in our attic at the time and they burst. We came home to a huge mess. Almost all our ceiling was gone and water everywhere.

was 21 at the time in dec, 1989 lived in El Campo about 70 miles southwest of houston I remember driving in the snow and 13 degrees, the morning of the 23rd we hit 7 offically at the local radio station, didnt used the front door at all as it faced north, the grass would crunch under your shoes, that was one numbing COLD! as for dec. 1983 if I do remember, at the time very cold that time too, big fish kill on the coast, was telling some people at work if they remember '83 and '89 it could get that cold they all laughed, well I consider myself forewarned on here

[aggiecutter]

I found some -54 Fahrenheit readings in Siberia.

Current temp somewhere in Siberia:
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/sfgate ... 24688.html

I also found some -44 Fahrenheit readings in the Northern Provinces of Canada:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/globa ... 71917.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like they are even forecast to get as cold as -61 degrees on Sunday night up there in that part of Siberia! That is some bitter cold air for sure. Brr...

[aggiecutter]

I found another -40+ below Fahrenheit in the northern Province of Canada:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/globa ... 71911.html

[double D]

looks like they are even forecast to get as cold as -61 degrees on Sunday night up there in that part of Siberia! That is some bitter cold air for sure. Brr...

Yeah, and on Tuesday they will have a heat wave with a high of -23F with partly sunny skies.

[double D]

Mark Murray (KVUE in Austin) said although it will be very cold next weekend, he doesn't think we will see any winter precip. this time around. He said the air mass will be extremely dry and the flow will be coming from the north and northwest instead of the southwest. I should note that he said he would not completely rule it out, just highly unlikely this time.

[aggiecutter]

I think the northern part of the state will get something significant between Monday and Friday before the coldest of the fronts comes through. The temps will be plenty cold enough during that period to support winter precip, and there are several disturbances coming a long the southern stream during that time frame. Also, during 83, I got a an inch or so of snow, it was the real fluffy stuff that you could blow off your car, on a couple different days from upper level disturbances coming down with the northern branch.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mark Murray (KVUE in Austin) said although it will be very cold next weekend, he doesn't think we will see any winter precip. this time around. He said the air mass will be extremely dry and the flow will be coming from the north and northwest instead of the southwest. I should note that he said he would not completely rule it out, just highly unlikely this time.

That's strange. From what I have heard from other mets (including the Houston NWS) is that we may actually be looking at a cloudy and somewhat wet pattern by next weekend.

From the Houston AFD:

HOWEVER OF SOME CONCERN ARE LONG
RANGE PROGS OF AN EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING O-
VER THE WRN U.S. (SOMEWHERE IN THE ORDER OF 65 DEGREES). BRR...
SHOULD THE GUIDANCE VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CLOUDY/VERY COLD CON-
DITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME
LOWISH POPS. A BEAR WATCH MAY BE IN ORDER...(A POLAR BEAR WATCH
PERHAPS?) 41

I guess only time will tell...

ATM though, I am hoping the cloudier, wetter pattern wins out and we get a good snowfall! That would be nice.

[double D]

Mark Murray (KVUE in Austin) said although it will be very cold next weekend, he doesn't think we will see any winter precip. this time around. He said the air mass will be extremely dry and the flow will be coming from the north and northwest instead of the southwest. I should note that he said he would not completely rule it out, just highly unlikely this time.

That's strange. From what I have heard from other mets (including the Houston NWS) is that we may actually be looking at a cloudy and somewhat wet pattern by next weekend.

I guess only time will tell...

ATM though, I am hoping the cloudier, wetter pattern wins out and we get a good snowfall! That would be nice.

I'm with you on that EWG, I would love to see some snow out of this too. Plus if it stays cloudy that might save us from reaching into the teens or even single digits (hill country).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mark Murray (KVUE in Austin) said although it will be very cold next weekend, he doesn't think we will see any winter precip. this time around. He said the air mass will be extremely dry and the flow will be coming from the north and northwest instead of the southwest. I should note that he said he would not completely rule it out, just highly unlikely this time.

That's strange. From what I have heard from other mets (including the Houston NWS) is that we may actually be looking at a cloudy and somewhat wet pattern by next weekend.

I guess only time will tell...

ATM though, I am hoping the cloudier, wetter pattern wins out and we get a good snowfall! That would be nice.

I'm with you on that EWG, I would love to see some snow out of this too. Plus if it stays cloudy that might save us from reaching into the teens or even single digits (hill country).

That's a good point. Temps. in the lower 20s with snow would be a lot better than in the lower teens under clear skies. It would mean the difference between a nice, insulated winter wonderland and a damaging, plant-killing freeze.

[southerngale]

You and me both, EWG. What good is the cold without snow? I was reading the thread where people were posting the lowest temperature they've personally witnessed. Jumping marshmallows....why would anyone want to live where it gets below zero quite regularly or even NEAR zero? Teens and twenties are bitter cold to me and I don't need anything colder than that...ever. I like the cold so I can enjoy having fires in the fireplace, near Thanksgiving and Christmas because that's the way it should be, for a nice change from the heat, and I want cold for the main purpose of getting some snow to magically form and accompany it! But I just can't imagine having to bundle up, with scarves, hats, and gloves/mittens for most of the winter. Geesh, what a pain.

With that said, bring on the cold...with a big helping of snow on the side!

[wxman57]

I am not confusing the dates. It was December 23, 1989. I remember that clearly. We left to go visit my grandparents for Christmas. They lived around Marksville which is in Central Louisiana. A 3 and half hour drive from my home. Our pipes were located in our attic at the time and they burst. We came home to a huge mess. Almost all our ceiling was gone and water everywhere.

FYI, here's a sood site to check up on monthly stats for just about anywhere. I plotted daily max and min temps for Dec. 1989 for New Orleans. On Dec. 23, 1989 it got down to 11 degrees with a high of 27. I was there. Flew into the airport that day and there was no power.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/onl ... rray1.html



February 1989 -- not even close:

[Furious George]

So many variables still in place that makes it hard to pinpoint how extreme this arctic blast will be for SE Texas. Looking at the temps in Canada, it appears that it's Central Northern Canada that has the bitterly cold air (just west of Baffin Sea). That area is due North of Texas. It would take a true cross polar event to funnel that arctic air directly into the state. We'll likely get most of our air from NW Canada, which doesn't have the extreme cold. However, even a graze of the good stuff could push our lows near 20F and our highs near freezing. I expect cities in the Southeast to be in an even crazier situation (Atlanta for example).

One thing is for sure - it's going to be interesting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The European seems to build that cold air more westward though, and if that occurs then the cold air will probably end up being lined up perfectly for a direct hit on Texas.

However, Nothing is set in stone yet though.

As you said, it is going to be interesting...

[GeneratorPower]

The "wobble wars" have begun.

[cajungal]

I lived in the same town in SE Louisiana all of my life. I am now 30 and only seen snow a total of 3 times my whole life here. The first was February 1988, then December 1989, and Christmas Day 2004. The winters here are usually very boring. I don't think I could stand living in Minnesota, Nebraska, the Dakotas, etc because I am not used of anything that frigid. I really don't like anything cold at all unless there is a possibility of snow then I get excited. Anything below 50 and I am in a jacket freezing. But, at least this will give us something interesting to talk about in the days to come. I live for interesting and exciting weather!

[aggiecutter]

George, the for the last 3 days the EURO, GFS ENSEMBLES, and the Canadian have been showing cross polar flow straight down into Texas. Here is the 12z EURO @ 168. That is about as brutal as it gets. The 192 and 216 dig the trough even further south.

EURO 12z @ 168hrs:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[hriverajr]

I tend to agree with most, that at least in texas we will get quite cold. How cold is still open to question. I had contact with a tv meteorologist out of corpus christi. He thinks I am on crack that I believe an arctic boundary is coming down. to quote him "the bottom line is that some arctic air is coming into the U.S. but not here"I vehemently disagree with him. I guess we will see who will end up with egg on his face. hehe one of us will.

Hector