TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[Furious George]

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... ature.html

Notice the bone chilling air is at a longitue almost directly north of Texas. For that to make a direct hit on the state, we'd need one of two things to happen.

1) A strong ridge sending the air on a long journey south (in all likelihood an easterly component will end up sending the bulk of cold air that way)

2) This arctic area would need to shift a bit to the west before coming down as the air Texas would see is usually from NW Canada. If Texas got the deep freeze, this is probably what would happen.

I'll be more confortable knowing what's going on when the Arctic air is actually on the move.

[double D]

I agree Furious George, I would like to see where the arctic air sets up before buying anything what the models say. The GFS has perfomed very poorly in these type of situations and I think it's a good idea to see in a couple of days where the cold air exactly sets up.

[Portastorm]

Lowest temps I can find this morning...

Canada -45 NWT is 10 degrees below normal- temps expected to rise.

NE Greenland -46 is +1 above normal - forecast temps to fall to at or below normal

NC Russia -45 is +4 degrees above normal- forecast temps to fall to at or below normal

Northway Alaska -19 above normal by 6 degrees F. forecast temps to rise even more above normal.

So there is some cold air over the ice cap in a few places but mostly at or above normal--- Except near Eureka N. W. T. where temps are 10 degrees below normal but that is where part of the this cold snap should draw air from..IMO.

First of all...we won't ever get air from NE Greenland...and it's always cold there in the winter..well...usually. Also...the air in Russia is usually cold too...which is seen in the fact it is near normal. And...while that air in Russia is cold...it's not that dense. The pressures there are 1020-1025 MB...with one report of 1040 in the coldest area...but that's in a vally and it's usually a high reading. So...there is no high pressure cell for that cold air to be transported with across the poles by the cross polar flow.

-19 in AK...by the time it works it way all the way south...and modifies...doesn't mean much. Classic cold snaps begin with MUCH colder air and much higher pressures. For instance...in Feb 1989...Northway AK had a pressure of 1078 MB and temps 50F colder...and that put us into the 20's in SETX....so do the math.

The problem is the lack of high pressure. There is an old rule of thumb in our LAFP binder (basically a forecasters rule of thumb book used in days when you didn't have fancy computers) that says look for the 1050mb plus high over Canada/AK and watch for a 1045mb high or greater to pass through Montana. If that happens...an arctic boundry will pass through SETX within 48 hours. Also watch Barrow AK temps. ONce they pass 20 degrees above normal (which is the ridge building) and you have the highs...you will get your arctic front.

So AFM, can I quote you that this is going to be a run-of-the-mill winter cold front for Texas and nothing to get excited about?

There appears to be disagreement in the pro met community over how this next 7-10 days will play out. Unless I misinterpreted, your colleague Wxman57 appears to be more bullish on this event. So are JB (Accuwx) and DT (wxrisk.com).

[pwrdog]

Lowest temps I can find this morning...

Canada -45 NWT is 10 degrees below normal- temps expected to rise.

NE Greenland -46 is +1 above normal - forecast temps to fall to at or below normal

NC Russia -45 is +4 degrees above normal- forecast temps to fall to at or below normal

Northway Alaska -19 above normal by 6 degrees F. forecast temps to rise even more above normal.

So there is some cold air over the ice cap in a few places but mostly at or above normal--- Except near Eureka N. W. T. where temps are 10 degrees below normal but that is where part of the this cold snap should draw air from..IMO.

First of all...we won't ever get air from NE Greenland...and it's always cold there in the winter..well...usually. Also...the air in Russia is usually cold too...which is seen in the fact it is near normal. And...while that air in Russia is cold...it's not that dense. The pressures there are 1020-1025 MB...with one report of 1040 in the coldest area...but that's in a vally and it's usually a high reading. So...there is no high pressure cell for that cold air to be transported with across the poles by the cross polar flow.

-19 in AK...by the time it works it way all the way south...and modifies...doesn't mean much. Classic cold snaps begin with MUCH colder air and much higher pressures. For instance...in Feb 1989...Northway AK had a pressure of 1078 MB and temps 50F colder...and that put us into the 20's in SETX....so do the math.

The problem is the lack of high pressure. There is an old rule of thumb in our LAFP binder (basically a forecasters rule of thumb book used in days when you didn't have fancy computers) that says look for the 1050mb plus high over Canada/AK and watch for a 1045mb high or greater to pass through Montana. If that happens...an arctic boundry will pass through SETX within 48 hours. Also watch Barrow AK temps. ONce they pass 20 degrees above normal (which is the ridge building) and you have the highs...you will get your arctic front.

You didn't tell me anything I didn't already know... I'm sure it will help somebody though.. I was just showing temps up north...

[Air Force Met]

You didn't tell me anything I didn't already know... I'm sure it will help somebody though.. I was just showing temps up north...

I don't know what you know or don't. However...there may be others on the board who don't know...hence the comment. When you've been here for a while...you'll see that is how it works...and people will then know that you know stuff....and you'll know they know stuff.

And we'll all know stuff.

[double D]

"If" this arctic air doesn't pan out for us in Texas, then our time for any more snow/cold will be running out of time as well. After this event has come and gone, we will be in the middle to later part of Feburary, and March will be right around the corner. At least for us in central and southeast Texas, winter events are hard to come by when we enter March.

[Furious George]

You didn't tell me anything I didn't already know... I'm sure it will help somebody though.. I was just showing temps up north...

I don't know what you know or don't. However...there may be others on the board who don't know...hence the comment. When you've been here for a while...you'll see that is how it works...and people will then know that you know stuff....and you'll know they know stuff.

And we'll all know stuff.

Well said AFM! That cracked me up. Oh by the way, I guarantee no one knew all that info you posted - thanks for enlightening us.

Also, I read some of the morning NWS discussions for the northern plains (ND, SD in particular). They seem to expect the major arctic intrusion on Friday, so I"m assuming if we saw anything brutal, we'd be looking at later on in the weekend if this is correct.

[Air Force Met]

So AFM, can I quote you that this is going to be a run-of-the-mill winter cold front for Texas and nothing to get excited about?

There appears to be disagreement in the pro met community over how this next 7-10 days will play out. Unless I misinterpreted, your colleague Wxman57 appears to be more bullish on this event. So are JB (Accuwx) and DT (wxrisk.com).

Well...JB is only calling for temps that are cold...its "from the northern and central plains to the east coast there may be some challenges or broken."

I agree with that. With the polar vortex like it is...the cold air will get pulled down from the poles and wrapped south then east over the central then eastward parts of the country. There is cold air there...it's sitting over the pole. In order for it to make it here it has to be embedded in some really high pressure coming down the lee-side of the rockies....and right now I don't see that happening. I do think it will get colder than the GFS numbers and I do think the Houston area will see a night in the 20's...maybe mid-upper 20's at IAH before it is all said and done (not by late week though...probably by early next week/late weekend...)...but unless there is a high that builds ... the cold well get pushed east and we will get the backdoor.

Now...if a high builds over Siberia...it will get pushed over the pole and will travel down the lee-side...because that is the way the flow is going...and we will get it. It won't be 1983/1989 cold because the source isn't as cold as we usually see...but we will see more than the alternative.

It's all about the strength of the high for us because of the NW flow. It will be dry and you will need a lot colder air than two weeks ago to get the same amount of cold. Problem is the GFS just doesn't handle "building" arctic highs very well...so who knows?

[Air Force Met]

NEWS...New GFS is rolling in and NOW it is showing a large high building...close to 1050...over the NW territories and the Yukon...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

That is what was missing. We'll have to see if future runs continue the trend...

144 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

150 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

500mb...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

[pwrdog]

You didn't tell me anything I didn't already know... I'm sure it will help somebody though.. I was just showing temps up north...

I don't know what you know or don't. However...there may be others on the board who don't know...hence the comment. When you've been here for a while...you'll see that is how it works...and people will then know that you know stuff....and you'll know they know stuff.

And we'll all know stuff.

No biggy I was just clarifying what my post was about (purely temps) The implication was there is not any real cold air anywhere which usaully goes hand and hand with no really strong anticyclones either...

That 31.85 in 1989 was awesome..

I did notice the 12Z GFS is now developing a 1050+ high on feb 1st over the yukon/nwt... Much higher than anything around right now..but nothing earth shattering.

[pwrdog]

NEWS...New GFS is rolling in and NOW it is showing a large high building...close to 1050...over the NW territories and the Yukon...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

That is what was missing. We'll have to see if future runs continue the trend...

Opp's beat me too it.. That would help transport compared to other runs...

[Air Force Met]

You didn't tell me anything I didn't already know... I'm sure it will help somebody though.. I was just showing temps up north...

That 31.85 in 1989 was awesome..

I did notice the 12Z GFS is now developing a 1050+ high on feb 1st over the yukon/nwt... Much higher than anything around right now..but nothing earth shattering.

Yep...got in a fight with one of my profs over that one. I had just had military duty and heard a bunch of the "old timers" talking about the huge high sitting over Alaska and the fact it was about to get real cold here...and so when I went back up to A&M I was talking about it on the 12th floor (map room)...and the associate dept. chair said "nope...won't happen. We're too zonal (which we were VERY zonal)...it will go east. I made the comment about it being very dense...extremely cold and high arctic pressure and that it would slide down the east side of the rockies...like happened in 1983...we were zonal then too...and he said..."No...the Jet is over the Dakotas...won't happen."

I said "we'll see". He said...in front of an entire class of students "Your just a stupid freshman...what do you know?"

It was Dr. Scoggins...WXMAN57 will remember him....well I am sure.

BWAHAHAHA. Well...after 2 days of cancelled classes on account of ice...I saw him again walking to the elevator...as I was standing in front of the same class...(I was getting out of Met 204)...I said: "Good morning Dr. Scoggins...I hope you didn't slip on any of that ice you said wasn't going to be there." Everyone laughed and he ignored me.

Given he held grudges...probably wasn't the smartest thing to do...but he asked for it.

[richtrav]

Just curious, but why do people seem to think that whenever Texas is going to have a severe Arctic outbreak that it is going to rival Dec '83 or '89? Those were extremely rare events. It is (or USED to be, pre'90s) much more common for us to get cold outbreaks more along the lines of a Jan '48, Jan '63, Jan '82, Jan or Feb '85, Feb '89, Dec '90, or Feb '96 etc etc etc etc rather than a monster '83 or '89 event. Even Dec '83 and '89 had some smaller outbreaks in them more like the ones above before the big one hit.

There have been MANY more of these in the history books than the really big outbreaks (the San Antonio NWS site has the hi/lo temps for every day they've been open on their website, that's an excellent place to check). We haven't seen a freeze even like one of those in over 10 years, it's been an exceptionally mild decade, just going by the odds alone you would think that IF (and right now it's still a big "if") a bad freeze were coming it would turn out being something more like one of those above.

[Furious George]

NEWS...New GFS is rolling in and NOW it is showing a large high building...close to 1050...over the NW territories and the Yukon...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

That is what was missing. We'll have to see if future runs continue the trend...

Looks like that setup is for next Thursday. If this is the case, how long from that point would the air likely settile into Texas? Next weekend?

[aggiecutter]

Rich makes a good point. The cold can be severe(as compared to normal) without it being record breaking. Rich also brings up a point about the smaller outbreaks before the big one in 83 and 89. That is exactly what is going to happen this week. There will be feeder shots as I like to call them on Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday. The big shot might not be as bad as 83 or 89, but the progression of the pattern to get there is exactly the same as those year--- 3 or 4 smaller feeder shots---then the big one. Regardless of what the models say between now and next weekend, that makes me think, or gives me hope, that shot coming the weekend-early next week will be severe and possibly extreme.

[HouTXmetro]

Does the latest GFS indicate really cold stuff will make it into Texas vs being shunted N and East?

[Air Force Met]

Just curious, but why do people seem to think that whenever Texas is going to have a severe Arctic outbreak that it is going to rival Dec '83 or '89? Those were extremely rare events. It is (or USED to be, pre'90s) much more common for us to get cold outbreaks more along the lines of a Jan '48, Jan '63, Jan '82, Jan or Feb '85, Feb '89, Dec '90, or Feb '96 etc etc etc etc rather than a monster '83 or '89 event. Even Dec '83 and '89 had some smaller outbreaks in them more like the ones above before the big one hit.

There have been MANY more of these in the history books than the really big outbreaks (the San Antonio NWS site has the hi/lo temps for every day they've been open on their website, that's an excellent place to check). We haven't seen a freeze even like one of those in over 10 years, it's been an exceptionally mild decade, just going by the odds alone you would think that IF (and right now it's still a big "if") a bad freeze were coming it would turn out being something more like one of those above.

I think because those are good benchmarks. In terms of events...the Jan '82 event is very simliar...at least in the upper levels...to what will be around next week. The sfc is still lacking the high support.

Dec 90 was GREAT in terms of an ice storm...at least in College Station. Again...a monster high at the sfc and over AK was involved. I think we ended up with 3/4" of ice there.

Late Jan-Early Feb 85...also very simliar upper air pattern. Big high at the sfc...ridging over AK and the PV over Ontario.

Same scenario in '63 as well...

[Air Force Met]

NEWS...New GFS is rolling in and NOW it is showing a large high building...close to 1050...over the NW territories and the Yukon...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

That is what was missing. We'll have to see if future runs continue the trend...

Looks like that setup is for next Thursday. If this is the case, how long from that point would the air likely settile into Texas? Next weekend?

Probably next weekend.

[Tireman4]

You didn't tell me anything I didn't already know... I'm sure it will help somebody though.. I was just showing temps up north...

That 31.85 in 1989 was awesome..

I did notice the 12Z GFS is now developing a 1050+ high on feb 1st over the yukon/nwt... Much higher than anything around right now..but nothing earth shattering.

Yep...got in a fight with one of my profs over that one. I had just had military duty and heard a bunch of the "old timers" talking about the huge high sitting over Alaska and the fact it was about to get real cold here...and so when I went back up to A&M I was talking about it on the 12th floor (map room)...and the associate dept. chair said "nope...won't happen. We're too zonal (which we were VERY zonal)...it will go east. I made the comment about it being very dense...extremely cold and high arctic pressure and that it would slide down the east side of the rockies...like happened in 1983...we were zonal then too...and he said..."No...the Jet is over the Dakotas...won't happen."

I said "we'll see". He said...in front of an entire class of students "Your just a stupid freshman...what do you know?"

It was Dr. Scoggins...WXMAN57 will remember him....well I am sure.

BWAHAHAHA. Well...after 2 days of cancelled classes on account of ice...I saw him again walking to the elevator...as I was standing in front of the same class...(I was getting out of Met 204)...I said: "Good morning Dr. Scoggins...I hope you didn't slip on any of that ice you said wasn't going to be there." Everyone laughed and he ignored me.

Given he held grudges...probably wasn't the smartest thing to do...but he asked for it.

Thank you for the great story. We as teachers (I teach college history) should learn humility. I know I have been wrong more times than I can count. Just goes to show you that ALL of us must continue to learn. Just because we have a PhD does not make us immune to learning from students.

[PTrackerLA]

No one seems to mention February of '96 where we had a major arctic front and dropped down into the teens 3 nights in a row. This is the last time I can remember us being this cold and at the time it was called the coldest weather since '89. This is a much more reasonable arctic outbreak given the set up but I doubt we will even get this cold. Here are the temperatures from the first 5 days of Feb '06. We also had a little freezing rain and flurries with this event as well.

High Low
1 38 32
2 34 25
3 31 19
4 33 18
5 48 16