TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[wxman57]

So AFM, can I quote you that this is going to be a run-of-the-mill winter cold front for Texas and nothing to get excited about?

There appears to be disagreement in the pro met community over how this next 7-10 days will play out. Unless I misinterpreted, your colleague Wxman57 appears to be more bullish on this event. So are JB (Accuwx) and DT (wxrisk.com).

Never confuse the mention of a possibility with an actual forecast. I think it's quite possible that the Gulf coast may see extreme cold with such a pattern setting up. For now though, it looks like at the very least we'll likely see temps significantly below normal but not record-breaking. That could change very quickly with just minor fluctuations in the upper-level flow.[/b]

[Portastorm]

So AFM, can I quote you that this is going to be a run-of-the-mill winter cold front for Texas and nothing to get excited about?

There appears to be disagreement in the pro met community over how this next 7-10 days will play out. Unless I misinterpreted, your colleague Wxman57 appears to be more bullish on this event. So are JB (Accuwx) and DT (wxrisk.com).

Never confuse the mention of a possibility with an actual forecast. I think it's quite possible that the Gulf coast may see extreme cold with such a pattern setting up. For now though, it looks like at the very least we'll likely see temps significantly below normal but not record-breaking. That could change very quickly with just minor fluctuations in the upper-level flow.[/b]

Duly noted!

In the weather enthusiast world, once a possibility is mentioned and that "possibility" suggests a more extreme event ... some of us tend to forget that "may happen" does not mean "will happen."

[southerngale]

So AFM, can I quote you that this is going to be a run-of-the-mill winter cold front for Texas and nothing to get excited about?

There appears to be disagreement in the pro met community over how this next 7-10 days will play out. Unless I misinterpreted, your colleague Wxman57 appears to be more bullish on this event. So are JB (Accuwx) and DT (wxrisk.com).

Well...JB is only calling for temps that are cold...its "from the northern and central plains to the east coast there may be some challenges or broken."

I agree with that. With the polar vortex like it is...the cold air will get pulled down from the poles and wrapped south then east over the central then eastward parts of the country. There is cold air there...it's sitting over the pole. In order for it to make it here it has to be embedded in some really high pressure coming down the lee-side of the rockies....and right now I don't see that happening. I do think it will get colder than the GFS numbers and I do think the Houston area will see a night in the 20's...maybe mid-upper 20's at IAH before it is all said and done (not by late week though...probably by early next week/late weekend...)...but unless there is a high that builds ... the cold well get pushed east and we will get the backdoor.

Now...if a high builds over Siberia...it will get pushed over the pole and will travel down the lee-side...because that is the way the flow is going...and we will get it. It won't be 1983/1989 cold because the source isn't as cold as we usually see...but we will see more than the alternative.

It's all about the strength of the high for us because of the NW flow. It will be dry and you will need a lot colder air than two weeks ago to get the same amount of cold. Problem is the GFS just doesn't handle "building" arctic highs very well...so who knows?

So it may not even be as cold as two weeks ago (where I couldn't get water to freeze at 30°) and even if it does, it will be dry?

Bleh!

Btw, great story about Dr. Scoggins. I can't stand know-it-alls.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Bastardi has been using the 94 analog for 5-6 days now. I mentioned it a couple days ago on here as I was concerned that the brunt of the cold would go to the North and East of Texas.

the strange thing is that even though he uses that analog...he still has been calling for highs as cold as the teens in Dallas and 20s in Houston.

Seems he must think something will be different.

[Air Force Met]

Bastardi has been using the 94 analog for 5-6 days now. I mentioned it a couple days ago on here as I was concerned that the brunt of the cold would go to the North and East of Texas.

the strange thing is that even though he uses that analog...he still has been calling for highs as cold as the teens in Dallas and 20s in Houston.

Seems he must think something will be different.

Yeah...because we didn't have that in 94 down here...94 was a Midwest...east US event.

[PTPatrick]

I would love to see the pattern that begat the freak cold in Mid December of 1996 down in the southeast. I dont know how much of a teaxas event that was, but on the bayou on the coast of Missisippi it got down to 12 degrees...and the day before it snowed 2-3 inches(mobile got like 4-5 Inches). Nobody really ever mentions that one. I can remember the Feb 1996 cold but I dont remember it being that bad down at the coast in Mississippi. I think December 96 was the last time Mobile or Pascagoula saw low teens, but then again, that may have been a much more focused east cold that didnt give Texas more than Low 20's.

I know that was the case when i was at FSU in Tallahassee FL. I remember well, a low of 12 degrees(i believe Jan or Feb of 2003). That was when Daytona saw snow enhanced by onshore flow. What was odd though, was that desppite the arctic air necessary to bring FL to the teens, The Upper midwest and Great lakes werent that cold. I remember looking at obs that morning and it was like almost the same temp In Minneapolis and Chicago as it was in Tallahassee.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would love to see the pattern that begat the freak cold in Mid December of 1996 down in the southeast. I dont know how much of a teaxas event that was, but on the bayou on the coast of Missisippi it got down to 12 degrees...and the day before it snowed 2-3 inches(mobile got like 4-5 Inches). Nobody really ever mentions that one. I can remember the Feb 1996 cold but I dont remember it being that bad down at the coast in Mississippi. I think December 96 was the last time Mobile or Pascagoula saw low teens, but then again, that may have been a much more focused east cold that didnt give Texas more than Low 20's.

I know that was the case when i was at FSU in Tallahassee FL. I remember well, a low of 12 degrees(i believe Jan or Feb of 2003). That was when Daytona saw snow enhanced by onshore flow. What was odd though, was that desppite the arctic air necessary to bring FL to the teens, The Upper midwest and Great lakes werent that cold. I remember looking at obs that morning and it was like almost the same temp In Minneapolis and Chicago as it was in Tallahassee.

The 1996 event brought Houston a low of 19-degrees. That was the last time the airport here (IAH) has been below 20.

[PTPatrick]

You mean 19 in feb 96 or 19 in Dec 96?

[PTPatrick]

Overall I would say that my experience in tallahassee was usually that when we were freakish cold in FL, Texas could just be regular cold and same goes for LA and MS. I remember lots of times where north FL(which mind you is a little ice box for some reason that often colder than places farther north in Georgia and AL) would be in teens when Mobile and Pascagoula would be low 30s. I guess it is just really sharp troughs that caused that, dont really know, just always seemed wierd to me.

[aggiecutter]

The noon Ensembles bring a 1048mb high over from Siberia-Northern Alaska next week. That is pretty impressive for an Ensemble run.

Noon Ensembles:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12712.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Another non-impressive Houston AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
200 PM CST SAT JAN 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SHOULD APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING...CENTRAL ZONES MID TO LATE EVENING AND NEAR COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUD COVER ONCE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARDS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUNCH THROUGH REGION. ANOTHER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH REGION MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL REFLECTION WILL BE A
COASTAL TROUGH/LOW WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST GULF/COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE LIKE A RERUN OF WHAT HAPPENED EARLY
TODAY. WE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN DEVELOPING INLAND AREAS WITH CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER REGION BY WEDNESDAY BUT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDICATED OVER SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS CWFA THURSDAY. DRIER MID- UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED BY GFS LATE FRIDAY WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF
REGION. THE COMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY (DESPITE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH REGION LATE SATURDAY) WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. FOR THE MOST PART...GFS MOS TEMPERATURES APPEARS
REASONABLE AND WE SHALL STAY CLOSE.

What ever happened to their "polar bear watch"? I mean come on here folks! This is not some dinky-little October-strength front we are talking about here! Hopefully they will get with it soon.

BTW: That "GFS MOS TEMPERATURES APPEARS REASONABLE" statement really bugs me. Hasn't the NWS learned how bad the GFS MOS numbers usually are this far out?

[Extremeweatherguy]

You mean 19 in feb 96 or 19 in Dec 96?

I believe it was Dec. 1996, but I am not 100% sure. I didn't live here then, but I do remember hearing multiple times that Houston hit 19F in 1996.

[aggiecutter]

Here's today's 6-10 day progs from the CPC:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

[aggiecutter]

Bastardi cut a video today showing how today's EURO fit his 94 analog. He went on to say that Texas would get a little low level cold air, but it was very obvious from his graphics that the brunt of the cold will be in the Ohio-Tennessee Valley and in the east. That is assuming that today's EURO is right. Yesterday, the EURO had the trough in the western parts of the plains-rockies.

[double D]

Bastardi cut a video today showing how today's EURO fit his 94 analog. He went on to say that Texas would get a little low level cold air, but it was very obvious from his graphics that the brunt of the cold will be in the Ohio-Tennessee Valley and in the east. That is assuming that today's EURO is right. Yesterday, the EURO had the trough in the western parts of the plains-rockies.

Does that mean he thinks the air mass will be shallow for us in Texas? Just curious because everything I've heard is that the air mass would be deeper than last weeks.

[southerngale]

Bastardi cut a video today showing how today's EURO fit his 94 analog. He went on to say that Texas would get a little low level cold air, but it was very obvious from his graphics that the brunt of the cold will be in the Ohio-Tennessee Valley and in the east. That is assuming that today's EURO is right. Yesterday, the EURO had the trough in the western parts of the plains-rockies.

Does that mean he thinks the air mass will be shallow for us in Texas? Just curious because everything I've heard is that the air mass would be deeper than last weeks.

I think he means when Old Man Winter is passing out the good stuff, we're gonna be in the back of the line, getting leftovers.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's today's 6-10 day progs from the CPC:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

Looks like the CPC now thinks a beeline SSE cold event could be in the works. Interesting..

[double D]

Well I will pass on the leftovers this time, I want the good stuff.

Anyway, I wouldn't mind passing on the cold this time since it is supposed to come in dry. I would rather have some nice mild weather when it's sunny than frigid and sunny. Now if it wants to snow, then that's a different story.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Another non-impressive Houston AFD...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
200 PM CST SAT JAN 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF CWFA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SHOULD APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING...CENTRAL ZONES MID TO LATE EVENING AND NEAR COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT. TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUD COVER ONCE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CLEARING EXPECTED TOWARDS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUNCH THROUGH REGION. ANOTHER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH REGION MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL REFLECTION WILL BE A
COASTAL TROUGH/LOW WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST GULF/COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE LIKE A RERUN OF WHAT HAPPENED EARLY
TODAY. WE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN DEVELOPING INLAND AREAS WITH CONVECTION
MAINLY OVER COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER REGION BY WEDNESDAY BUT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDICATED OVER SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS CWFA THURSDAY. DRIER MID- UPPER LEVEL
FLOW INDICATED BY GFS LATE FRIDAY WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OF
REGION. THE COMING WEEKEND LOOKS DRY (DESPITE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH REGION LATE SATURDAY) WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. FOR THE MOST PART...GFS MOS TEMPERATURES APPEARS
REASONABLE AND WE SHALL STAY CLOSE.

What ever happened to their "polar bear watch"? I mean come on here folks! This is not some dinky-little October-strength front we are talking about here! Hopefully they will get with it soon.

BTW: That "GFS MOS TEMPERATURES APPEARS REASONABLE" statement really bugs me. Hasn't the NWS learned how bad the GFS MOS numbers usually are this far out?

That is pretty bad. Midland, Amarillo, Fort worth are on board the Arctic train. Houston, Corpus (which has been quite bullish this year with the different systems that have cooled us down) and Brownsville are silent. When will they learn Arctic air just does not stop north of I-20?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Wake up the rest of you Texas NWS offices that are ho-hum right now. NWS San Angelo shows where it thinks the GFS should go

EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
ALASKA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH GFS INITIALLY TRIES TO TAKE THE COLDEST AIR EAST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...WE ARE BRINGING IT INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...
GOING SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.