TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[aggiecutter]

Actually, Bastardi has been saying the past 4 days that the brunt of the cold would be in the center part of the country, not the east. He said as much last night. Yet, he has been espousing the 94 analog during this same time-frame, which from his own graphics show the brunt of the cold in the Ohio-Tennessee valley and the east, not the plains or the midwest. I guess that he is throwing it against the wall and hope something sticks. BTW, he mentioned once again last night that Dallas would have a day with highs in the teens. That is something he has been saying for the past 4 or 5 days, also. And, as I mentioned above, the runs of yesterday's EURO are much different than today's. Another thing, his 94 analog is not an Elnino year like this year.

To be honest, I dont think he really knows. There are too many variables on the table , too much time between now and the event, and too much model waffling to really know what is going to happen.

[Furious George]

Bastardi cut a video today showing how today's EURO fit his 94 analog. He went on to say that Texas would get a little low level cold air, but it was very obvious from his graphics that the brunt of the cold will be in the Ohio-Tennessee Valley and in the east. That is assuming that today's EURO is right. Yesterday, the EURO had the trough in the western parts of the plains-rockies.

So I take it he hasn't said anything more about temps in the teens and twenties for Dallas and Houston respectively like he did before? Or will it not take the brunt of cold air to give us those temps?

Update - your post above just answered that - thanks.

[double D]

Actually, Bastardi has been saying the past 4 days that the brunt of the cold would be in the center part of the country, not the east. He said as much last night. Yet, he has been espousing the 94 analog during this same time-frame, which from his own graphics show the brunt of the cold in the Ohio-Tennessee valley and the east, not the plains or the midwest. I guess that he is throwing it against the wall and hope something sticks. BTW, he mentioned once again last night that Dallas would have a day with highs in the teens. That is something he has been saying for the past 4 or 5 days, also. And, as I mentioned above, the runs of yesterday's EURO are much different than today's. Another thing, his 94 analog is not an Elnino year like this year.

To be honest, I dont think he really knows. There are too many variables on the table , too much time between now and the event, and too much model waffling to really know what is going to happen.

It seems that he can't miss either way with that forecast. He has both bases covered by saying central US in his post and eastern US in his graphics. I think this upcoming pattern is giving lot's of forecasters headaches right now.

[aggiecutter]

double d, I think past experience tells him in this type of pattern that the brunt of the cold will be in the central part of the country. As a matter of fact, he has said that on his videos and written it in his columns many times the past 4 or 5 days. At the same time, he has been espousing 94 and showing graphics to support it that contradict the cold being centered in the center of the country. However, today's run of the EURO is the only evidence that he has that supports his 94 analog. As you pointed out, he is covering all his bases because the models have been all over the place as to where they want to put the brunt of the cold air.

Personally, basing this on past experience from 83 and 89, I think the cold will come in and overwhelm the country east of the Rockies. First, the center third and then the eastern third. The weather the next week follows what happened those years. There were 3 or 4 feeder shots in a 7-10 day period, and then the big one came. That is probably what will happen this time. I'm not saying it will be as cold as was back then, but at the very least, it will be very cold.

[southerngale]

I don't think it's giving the NWS in Lake Charles any headaches. I keep checking the discussions for here and they haven't even mentioned it at all, not even to say that it should miss us. Nothing. I really don't want to criticize, but I wish they would give more in depth discussions.

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, the 18z GFS continues to look very cold and even brings the arctic air in much sooner than some previous runs. If it is right, then the first arctic front will likely be cutting through the state by next Friday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif
^^Fri. afternoon (12pm)^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif
^^Sat. afternoon (12pm)^^

**The run is only out to Saturday so far..more to be posted later if need be.**

[double D]

I'm still not impressed with the GFS surface features as it really never shows much in the way of real cold temperatures for Texas. I wonder when the GFS will catch up with the 500mb features and give us a sense of how cold it will get in Texas?

[ETXHAMXYL]

From the FTW.NWS afternoon report
LONG TERM...
230 PM CST SAT JAN 27 2007
WE`LL REMAIN JUST ON SOUTH SIDE OF MID-UPPER LVL SPLIT FLOW THRU
LATE THURS...AS UPSTREAM KICKER HELPS DEVELOP MID LVL OMEGA/REX
RIDGE OFF THE WRN CONUS/CANADIAN COASTLINE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
RE-ENFORCING COLD SURGES/FRONTS ARRIVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON TUES
...AND AGAIN THURS. AFOREMENTIONED S/W ARRIVES WED INTO THURS WITH
BEST CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH...BUT VERY LOW POPS AS FRONTOGENESIS WILL
BE WEAK IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...ABOVE THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE.
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW FLAKE OR TWO MIXING IN WITH ANY
VERY LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK N-W OF THE D/FW METROPLEX FOR NOW.

BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...STEEP RIDGING OVER THE WRN CANADA/
CONUS OCCURS WITH STEEPENING OVER POLAR BRANCH OF JET STREAM DOWN
INTO S TX/NRN MEXICO. THOUGH IT WILL BE COLD THIS WEEK...THIS MARKS
FOR EVEN COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEPER/COLDER
BAROCLINIC AIRMASS ARRIVES FRI NIGHT/SAT. /05

Going all the way to MEXICO? and What the Heck is Baroclinic airmass?

[wall_cloud]

I'm still not impressed with the GFS surface features as it really never shows much in the way of real cold temperatures for Texas. I wonder when the GFS will catch up with the 500mb features and give us a sense of how cold it will get in Texas?

I've not been impressed by the GFS for much of this cold season. It handles arctic notoriously bad so I wouldn't put THAT much stock in it.

[wxman57]

The 850mb temps just keep getting colder and colder north of Minnesota and the Dakotas by next weekend. 12Z EC has temps down to -37.1C:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

And look at the 500mb flow!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like no matter what we are going to get a good hard freeze out of this. The big questions just still remain to be exactly how cold it gets (the difference between a hard freeze at 27F and 18F is huge) and if there are clouds/moisture around after the frontal passage.

Should be an interesting week next week as all the answers start to come together.

[jasons2k]

I wouldn't say "no matter what" to that this early. Much can change before then and there is still a good chance it goes east.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wouldn't say "no matter what" to that this early. Much can change before then and there is still a good chance it goes east.

that's what I mean. Even if it goes east, a "glancing blow" from this type of airmass would still likely mean a hard freeze for at least one night here (27F or below for the northern Houston suburbs).

If it makes a direct hit on us, however, then it will likely get colder.

Really, it all depends on cloud cover too (more clouds = warmer lows and colder highs). We will know more as we get closer..

[A1A]

The 850mb temps just keep getting colder and colder north of Minnesota and the Dakotas by next weekend. 12Z EC has temps down to -37.1C:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

And look at the 500mb flow!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

I am reading this right - it's colder in Wisconsin than it is at the North Pole and Alaska??

[wxman57]

The 850mb temps just keep getting colder and colder north of Minnesota and the Dakotas by next weekend. 12Z EC has temps down to -37.1C:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

And look at the 500mb flow!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

I am reading this right - it's colder in Wisconsin than it is at the North Pole and Alaska??

That would be correct, colder in Wisconsin. It's an 850mb (5000 ft) chart, but it's safe to say Wisconsin is going to get quite cold (and a lot of other areas).

[Janie2006]

I am reading this right - it's colder in Wisconsin than it is at the North Pole and Alaska??

This situation isn't all that unusual during arctic outbreaks. I've seen temperatures colder in southern Mississippi than in Alaska on several occasions.

[Yankeegirl]

Still a few days away.... Im not getting scared yet... lol...

[Kennethb]

Lots of uncertainty to the extent of the potential arctic out break for early February. Seems that the 1050+ highs of the GFS continue to be 10 days away. Why don't we just turn our PCs off for the week and return next Friday afternoon and see just where the 1050+ high is. Or just wait until the 1050+ high is on the 72 hr page.

In general can only analog 2007 because this outbreak has potential, especially since it appears to be arriving at the climatology peak of coldest weather and most wintry precip occurrences for us in the South. On the other hand, I can recall for over 20 years past watching WGN and the people up around Chicago flirting with 0F, while I was walking around in shorts and flip flops.

Seems to me that the kicker to the outcome will be the system in the southwest will ever come out. As long there is a system in the southwest, most likely we will not get the entire north flow to phase and allow the coldest air to drop in. Or maybe we can get just enough of the heavy cold air to drop south and stay while the southern stream awards us. We will have climotology on our side for the timing of this outbreak.

[wall_cloud]

the last bit of arctic air that hit the TX Panhandle occured while there was still a closed upper-low over the SW CONUS. with air that dense, you really don't need the dynamics to phase to bring it south.

[Extremeweatherguy]

lol. This local forecast is really quite laughable:

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

Many people probably expect next weekend to be a "nice" one when they look at something like this. Temps. in the 60s with partly sunny skies sounds pretty good.

Too bad that forecast will bust badly..