An uncertain time ahead

[azsnowman]

The headline says it all....we are indeed faced with an uncertain time ahead This is very indicative of a normal winter in Pinetop, Feb. and March can be a SOB and it appears that's JUST what's in store


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY...DOWN STREAM AND AT THE BASE OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW NEAR 140W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST...THE GFS INDICATES THIS MOISTURE WILL BE INGESTED IN TIME INTO THE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HALF WHAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...MAINLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE MODELS WILL HANDLE THIS BLOCKING PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY.


ANOTHER MUCH COLDER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHC`S OF PRECIP BACK TO ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT MODEL FORECAST TAKES MOST OF THE ENERGY TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE WEST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A COLDER AND WETTER SCENARIO FOR ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED MORE CLOSELY AS IT GETS CLOSER.

[azsnowman]

I am SO confused as well are the models

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST SUN JAN 28 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-290700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST SUN JAN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET. A CLOSED LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEK AND DRAW UPON SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST MODELS ON WHERE AND WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL ACT TO MOVE THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LOW EAST ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH STORM SYSTEMS AND THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STORM ARE FORECAST
TO COMBINE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND TRACK EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH EARLY ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY ACT TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING LONGER EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE TRACK OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
MOTORIST AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD CHECK BACK FOR
LATER UPDATES.
$$

[azsnowman]

Well folks.....here we GO aGAIn And as I've said before....I get it first before it heads east, could be ANOTHER whopper for y'all in Texas and elsewhere!


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AS THIS SYSTEM HAS SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO IT FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE BAJA COAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS. IN ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY REACH AS LOW AS 4000 FEET DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...TIMING UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HEADLINE PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.