SW Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Dora 07R (10S)

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SW Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Dora 07R (10S)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 27, 2007 11:18 pm

Image

Image

Image

Two thousand seven's fourth named tropical cyclone could form in the center of this disturbance.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Tue Jan 30, 2007 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Chacor » Sun Jan 28, 2007 12:47 am

Dernière mise à jour, (heure de La Réunion):
Dimanche, 28 janvier 2007, 04h30 (UTC+4)

Il n´y a pas ou plus d´activité cyclonique en cours,
(ou bien le bulletin spécialisé d´information n´est pas disponible)
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#3 Postby Chacor » Sun Jan 28, 2007 2:23 am

Spoke too soon...

BULLETIN DU 28 JANVIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1003 HPA.
POSITION LE 28 JANVIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 7.9 SUD / 66.7 EST
(SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES SEPT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1865 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 5 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 9.3S/65.1E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 11.6S/63.4E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.8S/61.2E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA ACTUALISE A 16H30
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 28, 2007 5:53 am

Image
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#5 Postby P.K. » Sun Jan 28, 2007 1:57 pm

07R is down to 1001hPa with 25kt winds, but not forecast to become a TD for another 24 hours or so.
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#6 Postby Coredesat » Sun Jan 28, 2007 4:19 pm

JTWC now has this as TC 10S, still a perturbation tropicale from La Reunion.

Image
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#7 Postby P.K. » Sun Jan 28, 2007 7:13 pm

07R now down to 1000hPa, winds still at 25kts. Forecast to reach TD strength in 12 hours, and moderate tropical storm strength in 24 hours.

Might be an idea for someone to put the official number in the thread name. :)
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 28, 2007 7:22 pm

P.K. wrote:07R now down to 1000hPa, winds still at 25kts. Forecast to reach TD strength in 12 hours, and moderate tropical storm strength in 24 hours.

Might be an idea for someone to put the official number in the thread name. :)


It's 07R or 10s Peter?
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#9 Postby Coredesat » Sun Jan 28, 2007 8:30 pm

The official number is 07R, but it might be a good idea to put 10S somewhere (say, "SW Indian: Tropical Disturbance 07R (JTWC: 10S)" or something like that).
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#10 Postby Chacor » Mon Jan 29, 2007 5:09 am

Now a TD from M-F.
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#11 Postby P.K. » Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:30 am

Now up to Moderate Tropical Storm Dora. Max winds of 35kts min pressure of 996hPa.
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#12 Postby Chacor » Mon Jan 29, 2007 9:02 am

P.S. Title should be Moderate TS Dora 07R, as JTWC didn't name the storm.
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#13 Postby Chacor » Mon Jan 29, 2007 9:37 am

RSMC La Réunion forecast outlook:

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/01/30 00 UTC: 13.8S/65.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2007/01/30 12 UTC: 15.0S/64.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2007/01/31 00 UTC: 15.6S/64.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2007/01/31 12 UTC: 16.3S/64.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/02/01 00 UTC: 17.0S/64.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/02/01 12 UTC: 17.6S/64.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+.
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTRE, AS A CDO.
THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD.
MONSOON FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE TRADE WINDS SURGE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN LIGHTLY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARDS. ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION AT CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE.
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING LAST HOURS.
NWM PRODUCTS DIFFERE IN THEIR FORECATED TRACKS AND INTENSITIES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF DIFFERENTS SCENARII.
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#14 Postby P.K. » Mon Jan 29, 2007 1:45 pm

40kts, 994hPa.

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/01/30 06 UTC: 14.0S/64.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2007/01/30 18 UTC: 14.7S/64.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/01/31 06 UTC: 15.2S/64.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/01/31 18 UTC: 15.6S/63.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/02/01 06 UTC: 16.1S/63.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/02/01 18 UTC: 16.7S/63.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AS A CDO OVER THE CENTRE.
THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD.
MONSOON FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE TRADE WINDS SURGE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION WITH A FASTER RATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
THE SYSTEM HAS CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING LAST HOURS.
NWM PRODUCTS DISAGREE WITH FORECASTED TRACKS AND INTENSITIES. OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF DIFFERENT SCENARII.
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#15 Postby Chacor » Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:50 pm

Now a severe tropical storm.
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#16 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Jan 29, 2007 11:10 pm

Image

Someone was gonna do it sooner or later.
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#17 Postby P.K. » Tue Jan 30, 2007 7:52 am

Someone is going to have to explain that to me, I must be getting old... :lol:

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/7/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA)

2.A POSITION 2007/01/30 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 65.4E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/01/31 00 UTC: 13.7S/65.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/01/31 12 UTC: 14.2S/64.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/01 00 UTC: 14.7S/64.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
48H: 2007/02/01 12 UTC: 15.4S/64.4E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
60H: 2007/02/02 00 UTC: 16.3S/64.3E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.
72H: 2007/02/02 12 UTC: 17.2S/64.3E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP.
CYCL.
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.0
RECENT VISIBLE CHANNEL METEOSAT 7 IMAGERY SHOWS A FORMATIVE EYE
INCLUDED
IN A NOT REGULAR CDO.
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A
GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUSTAINED BY A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS SYSTEM BUT DISSAGREE ABOUT THE
MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTED TRACK. A PART OF THEM (UKMO, NOGAPS) FORECASTS A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK THEN THE OTHER PART (ARPEGE, CEP, GFDN)
ORECASTS A SOUTHWARDS OR A SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK.
THE RSMC SCENARIO TO FORECAST A GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOW TRACK IS
BASED FROM CONSENSUS.
THE WINDSHEAR IN THE SOUTH IS EXEPECTED TO WEAK AND THE SYSTEM WOULD
ALSO
INTENSIFY GRADUALLY.=
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#18 Postby Chacor » Tue Jan 30, 2007 7:59 am

P.K. wrote:Someone is going to have to explain that to me, I must be getting old... :lol:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dora_the_Explorer
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#19 Postby Chacor » Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:37 am

Nice eye-like feature from 0920Z MODIS:

Image
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 30, 2007 9:27 am

BULLETIN DU 30 JANVIER A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DORA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 978 HPA.
POSITION LE 30 JANVIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 13.2 SUD / 65.4 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1335 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD A 5 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 14.2S/64.7E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.4S/64.4E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 17.2S/64.3E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN MARDI 30 JANVIER A 22H30 LOCALES

60 knots!
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