Southern States - LA-MS-AL-GA-TN Winter Storm Potential

[ga_ben]

000
FXUS62 KFFC 292036
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
336 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007

.SHORT TERM...
THINGS DONT GET INTERESTING UNTIL THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. COLD...DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND GETS
REINFORCED LATE TUESDAY BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR. THIS SURGE
COMES THROUGH DRY SO THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY PROBLEMS THERE. THE 64K
DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW COLD...HOW DEEP AND HOW PERSISTENT THIS COLD
LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING LOW OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN BY SUN UP THURSDAY
MORNING...WHILE TEMPERATURES AT CLOUD LEVEL ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM FOR
SNOW. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE. THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPEED AND PATH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM SO THE FINAL SOLUTION IS STILL A GOOD BIT WOBBLY FOR NOW. I WILL
BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLOOK THE POSSIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM...
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO WARM UP ENOUGH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO
TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL LIQUID. RAIN WILL BE ENDING BY
FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW RACES UP THE EAST COAST AND DRIER AIR SPILLS IN
BEHIND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOWS SIGNS OF SHIFTING SOMEWHAT FROM ITS
RECENT STATIC PATTERN AS THE STRONG...BROAD...BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST. THIS WOULD
KEEP GEORGIA IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE DROPPING BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BE LOW ENOUGH TO MEET REQUIREMENTS ALSO...WHICH WAS THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY. I WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BE CLOSE AGAIN AND FURTHER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT.


Hopefully everyone gets some of the GOOD frozen stuff.

[HarlequinBoy]

HarlequinBoy, your profile says "The Mississippi Delta". I always thought that was near New Orleans. Can you clarify your location?

Oh, sorry about that. You're correct that the true Mississippi Delta is near New Orleans. I live about a half an hour south of Memphis and the area near the Mississippi River from just south of Memphis to Vicksburg is called The Delta by people around here. It's not an actual Delta, but is a very flat area that has rich soil due to the MS River repeatedly flooding in years past. Hope that helps!

[GeneratorPower]

NWS Huntsville, AL starting to see winter WX

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL INITIATE
A SFC WAVE ALONG THE TX/LA GULF COAST. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
BIG FACTOR IN ALL THIS WILL BE THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE COLD AND DRY (SOMETHING WE HAVE BEEN LACKING SO FAR
WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS). SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW
AIRMASS SATURATING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NAM ABOUT
3-6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. LOOKING AT THE FINER-DETAILED NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS...ENOUGH SATURATION WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
PRECIP DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WEST (AND BY 12Z/THU ACROSS
THE EAST). DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL
BE LOW WITH ITS TEMP PROFILE WELL BELOW 0C. BY 12Z/THU...NEARLY
ENTIRE COLUMN IS SATURATED AND AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C IN THE
LOWEST 7K FT. GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT ENOUGH IS THERE TO SUPPORT
THE THREAT OF -PL/-SN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z/THU. GIVEN LACK OF STRONG UVV WITH "OVERRUNNING"
SITUATION...FEEL PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE RECENT COLD TEMPS...SFC/GROUND TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL CAUSE POTENTIAL ICY/SLICK SPOTS...
ESPECIALLY OVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS...BUT IF THE NAM SOLN HOLDS UP...THE POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOW/SLEET IS POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPS) TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL OF WINTER WEATHER
LATE WED NGT INTO THU MRNG.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE FORECAST AREA...WARMER AIR WILL SURGE NORTH...CHANGING ANY
FROZEN PRECIP TO RAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEAST AL...WHERE SFC TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND 32F COULD RESULT IN -FZRA THROUGH PART OF THE AFTERNOON.

[GeneratorPower]

FXUS64 KOHX 292102
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
302 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS POSSIBILITY OF
WINTER WX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE
BELIEVE THIS WILL NOT BE "HEAVY" WINTER WX...BUT RATHER AN
"ADVISORY" TYPE OF EVENT. STILL...ANY SNOW OR ICE CAN HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON MID TN. SO WE WILL DO OUR BEST TO SORT IT
OUT AS TIME GOES ON. FOLKS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
BECAUSE THINGS USUALLY CHANGE DURING THESE EVENTS. (USUALLY
CHANGE TO RAIN!)

FOR THE SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING. LOW CLOUDS WERE BLOCKING OUT THE SUN ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY FOR TONIGHT WITH LOW DEW POINTS BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL FORECAST JUST ON THE LOW
SIDE OF MAV NUMBERS...BUT NOT AS COLD AS FWC OR MET.

REINFORCING COLD AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS.
NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FLURRIES...I CANNOT RULE
THEM OUT SO I WILL KEEP THEM IN. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY
COLD...LIKE THIS MORNING. READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
MORNING SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
30S AFTER A VERY COLD START. TEMPERATES WILL BE LIMITED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MORE CLOUDS START STREAMING INTO THE REGION.

AS USUAL MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON SOLUTIONS FOR WX EVENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THEY ARE ALL COMING
AROUND TO HIGH POPS. WITH COLD AIR AND A COLD GROUND ACROSS THE
REGION...WE MUST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A MIXED BAG
STARTING WITH MAINLY SNOW IN OUR NORTH COUNTIES AND A MIX CHANGING
TO RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH. GFS BRING PRECIPITATION MUCH
FASTER...WHICH WOULD YIELD MORE SNOW. IF PRECIPITATION IS SLOWER
DEVELOPING...THEN WARMER AIR WILL RESULT IN MORE SLEET OR RAIN.
WARMTH OF COLUMN WILL ALSO DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH (WETTER AND WARMER).
FOR NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS. SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN IS
VERY ACTIVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING SITUATION
WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEEP COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 40. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ICE TO DEAL
WITH...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACT APPEARS TO BE EARLY
MORNING TRAVEL ON THURSDAY.

[HarlequinBoy]

Memphis has updated zones, but no new AFD yet.

From what I can tell they appear to be holding steady with a Winter WX potential. The most significant changes are they've changed the forecast for the Memphis area and areas just to the west to Snow Likely (70%) and areas in NW Mississippi to a Wintry Mix (70%) with borderlines lows of 31 on Wednesday night. They then change precip over to all rain over Mississippi on Thursday, but keep Snow/Rain over the remainder of the area through Friday. With flurries across the area Friday night.

The temperatures, as is usually the case, are going to be tricky. Just last February temperatures fell about 2 degrees lower than expected and a "surprise" 3 inch snow occurred here. Although to give the NWS credit, they repeatedly said it would be a close call.

[HarlequinBoy]

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-301000-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
300 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007

...A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...

A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
DURING TUESDAY...BRINGING THE AREA A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
IN THE MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL START OVERSPREADING THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ENOUGH
COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...
SNOW...AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE AIRMASS
WARMS DURING THURSDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...
DUE TO FORECAST MODEL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

[GeneratorPower]

This is THREE days out, so keep in mind this forecast WILL change one way or another.

[GeneratorPower]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FORMED THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S WITH
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS
AROUND FORECAST LOWS.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THREE COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH AND CAUSE ANOTHER COOL
DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.
MODELS WANT TO BREAK OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER DO NOT BELIEVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE EXISTS TO SQUEEZE OUT ANYTHING MEASURABLE.

LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
ANOTHER OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE TEENS.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHERE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE MID SOUTH RESIDES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE REGION INDICATE PRETTY DRY LOW LEVELS DURING THE DAY AND THE
MAIN LIFT TOO FAR WEST. THEREFORE AFTER 6 PM WEDNESDAY...DUE TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RAPID MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN. AT THIS TIME...MAINLY NORTH OF
I-40 SNOW IS FORECAST. ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH OF I-40 AND NORTH OF A CLARKSDALE
TO TUPELO LINE CAN EXPECT FREEZING RAIN..RAIN OR SNOW OR A MIX OF
ANY OF THESE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH.

BY THURSDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THE WINTRY MIX
TO RAIN ACROSS NRN MS TO AS FAR NORTH AS I-40...WITH A THIN BAND OF
RAIN OR SNOW NORTH OF I-40 TO A JONESBORO TO DYERSBURG TO PARIS.
FARTHER NORTH SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.

THIS IS STILL A DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES
MADE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. THE THIRD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES
HAVE FINALLY ARRIVED IN THE MID SOUTH AND WILL STICK AROUND FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT TEN DAYS.

[GeneratorPower]

New graphic for the day 3 FZRA potential

[GeneratorPower]

LOL: Forecaster HEDGE (see above graphic)

[HarlequinBoy]

This is THREE days out, so keep in mind this forecast WILL change one way or another.

Yupp. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see precip end up being a cold rain.

[GeneratorPower]

I will say that reverse psychology does not work with weather

[HarlequinBoy]

Nothing works with weather. It does what it wants. We have no control over it.

[icicle]

It looks like the tennessee state line snow shield will be working.


from Jackson NWS.

I AM CONFIDENT IN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP OCCURRING WED N THROUGH
THUR...IT IS THE PRECIP TYPE THAT HAS ME ON EDGE AND CONCERNED. TO
BEGIN...THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WED WILL BE QUITE COLD AND
DRY WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS.
ADDITIONALLY...ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE THE COLDEST WE
HAVE HAD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO FALL. I`M PRETTY CONFIDENT
THAT THE ONSET OF PRECIP WILL FALL AS SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW AS EVAPORATION AND WET-BULBING OCCUR WED NIGHT. INTENSE WAA
JUST OFF THE SFC LOOK TO HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z THUR MORNING. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH PREV THINKING. MY CONCERN BECOME JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL
FALL OVERNIGHT WHEN THE AIRMASS IS STILL COLD. ADDITIONALLY...WHAT
IF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH AND PRESSURES ARE
HIGHER TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL MEAN THAT IT WILL BE HARDER FOR THE
WAA RAINS TO WARM THE SFC ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL ONSET OF
WINTRY PRECIP WILL NEVER CHANGE OVER. IF THIS OCCURS...WE WILL HAVE
BIG PROBLEMS ACROSS THE N WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR .25 TO .50 OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. IT IS JUST TOO TOUGH TO BE EXACT AS FIGURING OUT THE
IMPACT OF SUCH INTENSE WAA AND ITS ROLE IN KEEPING SFC CONDITIONS
ABOVE FREEZING. MY GUT IS TELLING ME THAT THE N WILL SEE SOME WINTRY
PRECIP AT FIRST...WITH SOME ACCUM...THEN CHANGE TO LIQUID AS THE
INTENSE WAA WORKS ITS WAY DOWN AND WARMS THE SFC TO ABOVE FREEZING.
THE BIG THING I WAN`T TO MENTION IS THAT ONLY A FEW DEGREES (1-3F)
WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THE NORTH GETTING AN ICE STORM OR JUST RAIN
WITH NO MAJOR IMPACTS.

[breeze]

Latest out of Nashville.

~Annette~



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...KINGSTON SPRINGS...NASHVILLE...
LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...
COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...ALLARDT...LINDEN...
LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...
COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...
SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...FAIRFIELD GLADE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...
MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...TRACY CITY...ALTAMONT...COALMONT...
SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
335 PM CST MON JAN 29 2007

...SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST...CAUSING MOISTURE
TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW AND SLEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN ON THURSDAY.

EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS COULD HAVE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR
UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

$$

[icicle]

memphis has lowered their forecast hi's for thursday. It was low 40's...now low to mid 30's.

http://www.wreg.com/Global/category.asp?C=5492&nav=3HvG

http://www.myeyewitnessnews.com/weather/default.aspx

from NWS, memphis tenn.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT 4:17 AM CST TUE JAN 30 2007

...POSSIBLE WINTER STORM TO AFFECT MIDSOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL START OVERSPREADING THE REGION
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET... SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME AREAS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE COULD SEE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INCLUDING THE
MEMPHIS METRO AREA...COULD SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT TYPE AND AMOUNTS OF THE
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO FORECAST MODEL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES AND
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS...OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

[GeneratorPower]

Looks like the players are on the field. It's almost a wait-and-see game, now.

[icicle]

looks like it has changed yet again.

[icicle]

wow, memphis seems to be sounding the alarm. It all depends on the track of the low now.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER ON EXACT
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WHICH WILL HELP TO HINDER CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODELS ARE DEFINITELY FURTHER NORTH WITH PLACEMENT
OF LOW THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE NAM BRINGING LOW ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH GFS KEEPING FURTHER SOUTH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE ALSO HIGHER FROM PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH THAT MODELS ARE DEPICTING WITH CURRENT RUN. EXACT TRACK OF
LOW AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL HELP DETERMINE WHAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE OCCURS OVER THE MIDSOUTH. WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION ON
TRACK OF LOW AND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE WITH
EXCEPTION OF FWC HAS BEEN TO QUICK ON WARMING TEMPERATURES AFTER
THESE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL
LEAN TOWARD AN ALL SNOW FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THIS AREA...FROM COVINGTON TO JACKSON...EXPECT SLEET OR SNOW. FOR
MEMPHIS METRO AREA...PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...TO NEAR SAVANNAH EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND RAIN. FOR TUPELO SOUTHWARD...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN.
STILL EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT SIGNIFICANT ICING AND SNOW
AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE KEY ON PRECIP TYPE. A
1 TO 2 DEGREE DIFFERENCE COULD CAUSE A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE. AGAIN
UNTIL MODELS BECOME CONSISTENT...CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW ON EXACT
SOLUTION. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR
POSSIBLE CHANGES OF FORECAST AND FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS OR
ADVISORIES.

[Lowpressure]

Looks as if the system is about 6 hours slower than forecast, but track and the amount of cold air being in place or drawn in may be more condusive for winter weather. Models once again can not come to a conclusion and we are less than 48 hours out-amazing!