TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[aggiecutter]

This is the coldest one day run of the Ensembles for one day that I've seen this year. Also, the EURO keeps the cold around until atleast Tuesday.

120 Ensemble@ Sunday:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 20_us.html

[Air Force Met]

This is the coldest one day run of the Ensembles for one day that I've seen this year. Also, the EURO keeps the cold around until atleast Tuesday.

120 Ensemble@ Sunday:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 20_us.html

It's cold in terms of the thickness values...but that is only because of the very low heights forecasted at the 500mb level. When you forecasted heghts at 500mb are below 500 decameters...with a SLP of 1020+MB...you will get some VERY low thickness values...480 or so. But...as I have said...thickness values are just that..."thickness." It is a rule of thumb to get an idea of the coolness of the COLUMN of the atmosphere...but it's a bad idea to use it to determine how cold the sfc temps are. If the 500mb heights are very low...it can skew your numbers.

In terms of REAL...ACTUAL cold? It's not that unusual. For that same time period...temp anomolies are only 1.5 standard deviations below normal. Actual values are probably on the order of -15 to -20 over the area of lowest thickness values. Given the records for those places this time of year are 20 to 30 degrees colder...and given they normally run at -5 to -10 below in that area where the lowest thickness values...then that air is just a little below normal.

Matter of fact...during the last Arctic plunge...Grand Forks got down to -20 on the 12th of Jan...they are calling for a low close to that now. Bismark was down to -23. So...in Canada during the last plunge there were spots that were colder than during this plunge.

So...the temps are about the same or a little warmer...but the thicknesses are a lot lower. Low thicknesses=a colder air column from the sfc to the top...not jsut the sfc only...

[Portastorm]

Today's 12z GFS, like several previous runs, suggests the southern branch of the jet becoming more active next week. While we've established that this weekend's airmass will be cold but nothing record-breaking, the polar airmass won't be eroding all too quickly next week and we may even see further shots of reinforcing polar air.

I'm not willing yet to sign on to the "Winter=Cancel" train for Texas. Sorry. I think Ol' Man Winter may have a few tricks up his sleeve for us before February is over.

[CaptinCrunch]

Today's 12z GFS, like several previous runs, suggests the southern branch of the jet becoming more active next week. While we've established that this weekend's airmass will be cold but nothing record-breaking, the polar airmass won't be eroding all too quickly next week and we may even see further shots of reinforcing polar air.

I'm not willing yet to sign on to the "Winter=Cancel" train for Texas. Sorry. I think Ol' Man Winter may have a few tricks up his sleeve for us before February is over.

Get the football ready again!!

[gboudx]

Today's 12z GFS, like several previous runs, suggests the southern branch of the jet becoming more active next week. While we've established that this weekend's airmass will be cold but nothing record-breaking, the polar airmass won't be eroding all too quickly next week and we may even see further shots of reinforcing polar air.

I'm not willing yet to sign on to the "Winter=Cancel" train for Texas. Sorry. I think Ol' Man Winter may have a few tricks up his sleeve for us before February is over.

Get the football ready again!!

Cue AFM to play the role of Lucy.

[Air Force Met]

Today's 12z GFS, like several previous runs, suggests the southern branch of the jet becoming more active next week. While we've established that this weekend's airmass will be cold but nothing record-breaking, the polar airmass won't be eroding all too quickly next week and we may even see further shots of reinforcing polar air.

I'm not willing yet to sign on to the "Winter=Cancel" train for Texas. Sorry. I think Ol' Man Winter may have a few tricks up his sleeve for us before February is over.

Get the football ready again!!

Cue AFM to play the role of Lucy.

Bringing people crashing back to reality is my job.

[Yankeegirl]

I am paying attention to all the talk of the cooler weather for next week, but I am not into it as much as the last time we had the freezing rain.... I dont think I am completely sold on the cold temps. I dont know why, maybe its just a gut... I guess I will know more of whats going to happen later on in the week... then I might go get some firewood... maybe....

[jasons2k]

FYI - 2007 Houston-Galveston hurricane workshop plans have been posted in the Talkin' Tropics forum.

[GeneratorPower]

Bringing people crashing back to reality is my job.

We'd be most honored if you'd bring our Southern States discussion back to reality.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

FYI - 2007 Houston-Galveston hurricane workshop plans have been posted in the Talkin' Tropics forum.

Do we have to talk about "that" season right now?

If only we could cancel hurricane season.........

[aggiecutter]

AFM, the huge difference between the air mass coming in this weekend-early next week and the one in mid January is the one in January came on the back end of 3+ weeks of record warmth in the plains and Texas. The January front ran into 70 degree temps with dew points to match. The coming front is coming into an area that has been below normal for nearly a month and on the back end of 3-5 feeder shots of cold air. Point is, the air with this front is not going to modify nearly as much as the last one as it will be coming into an environment that is much cooler than the January front. Ground temps are a good 15 degrees cooler than back in mid January.

I'm not saying it is going to be record cold, but I am saying it will be very cold, colder than what a lot of the mets are saying, and it will last longer. I dont see one day of cold and out, which is what you are saying. I think there will be 3-4 days of very cold weather in the southern plains before it starts to modify, and the models back up what I say. Even if your 20 below normal is correct, that would put me with highs in the mid-30's and lows in the mid-teens. That is very cold weather for this part of the country and something you dont see very often around here. Just because it's not record breaking cold, doesn't mean the cold is not significant.

[jasons2k]

I have a hair splitter for sale on E-bay.

[srainhoutx]

AFM, the huge difference between the air mass coming in this weekend-early next week and the one in mid January is the one in January came on the back end of 3+ weeks of record warmth in the plains and Texas. The January front ran into 70 degree temps with dew points to match. The coming front is coming into an area that has been below normal for nearly a month and on the back end of 3-5 feeder shots of cold air. Point is, the air with this front is not going to modify nearly as much as the last one as it will be coming into an environment that is much cooler than the January front. Ground temps are a good 15 degrees cooler than back in mid January.

I'm not saying it is going to be record cold, but I am saying it will be very cold, colder than what a lot of the mets are saying, and it will last longer. I dont see one day of cold and out, which is what you are saying. I think there will be 3-4 days of very cold weather in the southern plains before it starts to modify, and the models back up what I say. Even if your 20 below normal is correct, that would put me with highs in the mid-30's and lows in the mid-teens. That is very cold weather for this part of the country and something you dont see very often around here. Just because it's not record breaking cold, doesn't mean the cold is not significant.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 AM CST TUE JAN 30 2007

snipet

THE COLD FRONT THAT MODELS BRING INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ARRIVE 6 TO 12 HOURS AHEAD OF THE MODEL
SCHEDULE... IF NOT SOONER... AS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF ARCTIC
AIR MASSES THAT ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EARLY ARRIVAL WILL
PROBABLY BE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
IN THE RESULTING AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD... PROBABLY THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR... AND CERTAINLY WELL BELOW THE
CURRENT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

MODELS AGREE ON ERODING THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN IN REALITY... AND MODELS HAVE A DEFINITE TENDENCY TO
MOVE ARCTIC AIR TO OUR EAST TOO EARLY. SO... THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
COLD EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[jasons2k]

Seriously though....

I think people should be very careful how they interpret forecasts for specific zones. Texas is a BIG state and the climate varies a lot from one place to the next. When a system like this is expected to move more to the east, the impacts in a place like Texarkana will be worlds different than what happens here in Houston or San Antonio. It may be MUCH more transient down here than points further north and east. It's like when a blizzard is forecasted in Amarillo and people in South Texas get all excited - for nothing. Another example - take Florida. Try comparing Tallahassee to Miami; there is none.

So, my point is that when a met in Houston says a cold snap will be insignificant and last only a day or so, the same may NOT apply to Texarkana, Little Rock, or Vicksburg, not in the least.

[PTrackerLA]

Well they say our best shot at snow in southern LA is during the month of February but I can't remember the last time we had ANYTHING frozen in February...maybe 1996.

[Kennethb]

1988, it snowed twice in three days. I would say February 2007 offers a better opportunity than in recent years.

[BreinLa]

Forecasters down here can't even get the temperature right for a high much less forcast snow. Sorry I am cold lol High supposed to be 50 today so far we haven't gone over 45. It's not only them either accuweather has been missing it too

[Portastorm]

I just took a look at the 12z European. The 500mb pattern flow goes almost entirely zonal by the middle of next week. Maybe winter is over for us in south Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

AFM, the huge difference between the air mass coming in this weekend-early next week and the one in mid January is the one in January came on the back end of 3+ weeks of record warmth in the plains and Texas. The January front ran into 70 degree temps with dew points to match. The coming front is coming into an area that has been below normal for nearly a month and on the back end of 3-5 feeder shots of cold air. Point is, the air with this front is not going to modify nearly as much as the last one as it will be coming into an environment that is much cooler than the January front. Ground temps are a good 15 degrees cooler than back in mid January.

I'm not saying it is going to be record cold, but I am saying it will be very cold, colder than what a lot of the mets are saying, and it will last longer. I dont see one day of cold and out, which is what you are saying. I think there will be 3-4 days of very cold weather in the southern plains before it starts to modify, and the models back up what I say. Even if your 20 below normal is correct, that would put me with highs in the mid-30's and lows in the mid-teens. That is very cold weather for this part of the country and something you dont see very often around here. Just because it's not record breaking cold, doesn't mean the cold is not significant.

That is an excellent point aggiecutter and I couldn't agree more. There is going to be a lot less modification of this airmass next week...so a "similar" level of cold should end up bringing similar if not colder conditions to our area.

Also, you are right. Even non-record breaking temperatures can be cold! If wxmans prediction from yesterday that Houston could see low to mid 20s out of this ends up playing out, then that would be some very cold weather for this area.

[aggiecutter]

portastorm, the 0z EURO did the same thing--go zonal on Wednesday-- but, it brings the trough back into the central part of the country by Friday. In contrast, the 12z goes zonal from Wednesday through Friday. We'll just have to wait and see if that is a trend or an aberration.