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aggiecutter wrote:portastorm, the 0z EURO did the same thing--go zonal on Wednesday-- but, it brings the trough back into the central part of the country by Friday. In contrast, the 12z goes zonal from Wednesday through Friday. We'll just have to wait and see if that is a trend or an aberration.
NWS - Foprt Worth wrote:...A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG
THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY MORNING...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SUBSEQUENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO PALO PINTO LINE. THIS WINTRY MIX WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT BY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE RAIN. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL BE LIMITED. REGARDLESS...MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY WHILE TRAVELING ON ELEVATED
ROADWAYS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE RED
RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
37°F | 31°F
40°F | 28°F
37°F | 24°F
33°F | 23°F
41°F | 33°F
41°F | 25°F
32°F | 23°F
34°F | 21°F
32°F | 18°F
23°F | 12°F
24°F | 14°F
43°F | 29°F
41°F | 25°F
double D wrote:If you look at the 18z NAM at hour 84, it shows a 1040 high in the rockies and the 0c 2 meter line in central Texas and the -10c 2 meter line south of Lubbock. So it looks like this weekend could be pretty chilly, even with sunshine. I have a feeling that the models actually might trend colder with future runs....we shall see.
Quite a bit cooler than the 12z GFS at hour 90.
aggiecutter wrote:Just watched Bastardi's videos. HE IS VERY BULLISH ON A MID-SOUTH, SOUTHERN PLAINS, ON UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SNOW STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK . He mentioned the towns of Shreveport and OKC being affected. He drew the line of heaviest snow from about Dallas, across Northern Texas into Southern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi then heading up toward the NE. He defined heavy as being greater than 4 inches. This is the snowstorm that was on a GFS a couple days ago @ 192. I mentioned at the time that it would lose it and pick it up again about 3 days out. Anyway, Bastardi said the other models have picked up on it now. Speaking of the GFS, he showed several examples of where the model was in la la land.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 52.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 59.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 41.
wall_cloud wrote:double D wrote:If you look at the 18z NAM at hour 84, it shows a 1040 high in the rockies and the 0c 2 meter line in central Texas and the -10c 2 meter line south of Lubbock. So it looks like this weekend could be pretty chilly, even with sunshine. I have a feeling that the models actually might trend colder with future runs....we shall see.
Quite a bit cooler than the 12z GFS at hour 90.
they have done that multiple times this season already. They pick up a solution about 7-10 days out, then moderate with it, then when its gets a few days out it jumps back on board. The ECMWF has been much more stable and consistent.
double D wrote:I noticed that Amarillo NWS really dropped thier temperature this afternoon. I guess they are tired of playing the GFS game too.
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