TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[Portastorm]

The computer model fun continues.

The 12z European brings a 1049mb high into the northern Plains by Day 7:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

And the 500 mb flow looks out of the northwest for the southern Plains.

Not sure what I was looking at earlier today on the actual ECMWF site but this sure looks much different and MUCH COLDER for the middle of next week.

[double D]

Portastorm I think you might be flip-flopping more than the GFS.

Seriously though, if that verifies, then maybe we can actually have two months below normal (WOW!)

[southerngale]

Amarillo....BRRRR!!

I guess if I really want some cold and snow, I could be in Amarillo by Morning.

we've only had 18 inches of snow so far.

only?

I'd be thrilled with a fraction of that.

[wall_cloud]

When I lived in Corpus (2003-early 2006) we only managed to see snow during one event (of course the big Christmas event). It just doesn't happen with any kind of frequency. If you want snow, you have to move north. I left Corpus because the weather, frankly put, bored me. Sea-breezes and afternoon thunderstorms in the summer, occasional cold rains in the winter but nothing of any real significance aside from the hurricane watch every few years. The Panhandle is an awesome location to forecast for. We get the dryline in the spring, the eastern periphery of the "monsoon" in the summer, cold intrusions in the fall (sometimes a secondary severe peak as well) and some of the highest snowfall amounts in TX during the winter.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm I think you might be flip-flopping more than the GFS.

Seriously though, if that verifies, then maybe we can actually have two months below normal (WOW!)

I know, I know ... pathetic, isn't it?

[Extremeweatherguy]

that latest ECMWF run is very impressive portastorm. That just screams cold for all areas east of the rockies.

[wxman57]

that latest ECMWF run is very impressive portastorm. That just screams cold for all areas east of the rockies.

I find it interesting that while the ECMWF is forecasting that 1048+mb high dropping down the Plains on Tuesday with strong cold advection into Houston that the NWS is forecasting a warming trend and mid 60s Tuesday afternoon. Obviously, they're only looking at the GFS. That looks like it could be some pretty cold air coming down. Maybe a low in the mid 20s here by Wednesday. Upper teens possible in the FL panhandle Wednesday, maybe colder Thursday.

[Air Force Met]

that latest ECMWF run is very impressive portastorm. That just screams cold for all areas east of the rockies.

I hate to tell you this...but the coldest surge is still going east of us

We are not going to get the push of this cold air...even what the 12Z Euro is showing. That setup screams "Go EAST young man." The high is too far east...and so is the cold air...and the flow is too strong from the west.


Now folks east of the Mississippi? That is a cold setup for you all.

[aggiecutter]

The CPC thinks the only places that will be spared much below normal temperatures are the immediate gulf coast areas and about a 100-150 miles inland. They have pretty much the rest of the country much below normal.

CPC 6-10 day:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... hreats.gif

[wxman57]

I hate to tell you this...but the coldest surge is still going east of us

We are not going to get the push of this cold air...even what the 12Z Euro is showing. That setup screams "Go EAST young man." The high is too far east...and so is the cold air...and the flow is too strong from the west.


Now folks east of the Mississippi? That is a cold setup for you all.

I agree, the colder air will be east of here. Going to have some frozen orange juice in Florida. But I still think we could see 25 out of this. That could equate to the low teens in the FL panhandle and mid 20s south of Orlando, perhaps, with the colder air to our east.

And there may be more cold surges after next Tuesday.

[NDG]

I went back 10 days and the Euro has been very consistant on its 12z runs and have verified very well up 7 days out (counting out most 00z runs), so today's 12z run (very similar to yesterday's 12z run) could very well verify on its forecast for early next week.

[Air Force Met]

The CPC thinks the only places that will be spared much below normal temperatures are the immediate gulf coast areas and about a 100-150 miles inland. They have pretty much the rest of the country much below normal.

CPC 6-10 day:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... hreats.gif

NOt sure what definition the COS is using for "much below normal." I think it's 10 degrees...maybe 15. That would fit into what I see coming. Up to 20 below normal for spots to the north and east of Tejas in the mid-west. Less "below normal" the further south and west you are form the polar vortex.

[Extremeweatherguy]

that latest ECMWF run is very impressive portastorm. That just screams cold for all areas east of the rockies.

I hate to tell you this...but the coldest surge is still going east of us

We are not going to get the push of this cold air...even what the 12Z Euro is showing. That setup screams "Go EAST young man." The high is too far east...and so is the cold air...and the flow is too strong from the west.


Now folks east of the Mississippi? That is a cold setup for you all.

I never said the coldest air was coming for us in my statement did I? I will openly admit that I also think that the coldest is going east of here. However, that does not mean we will still not be in a "cold" setup. Temperatures well below normal (10 to 15+ degrees) for highs and lows for a few days sounds pretty cold to me and if we hit 25-degrees at IAH, like wxman is saying is possible, then that would be very cold to myself and probably many others. IAH has not hit 25 or below since March 2002.

[Furious George]

Didn't JB call for highs in Dallas in the teens at one point? Oops, that will likley not play out. Just goes to show, when it comes to Arctic air, no one is perfect. I'm glad I don't put out forecasts for people to rely on - this one is tough.

[icicle]

wouldnt that be something if he's right.

Go Bastardi, It's your birthday... uh huh

[Air Force Met]

:D wouldnt that be something if he's right.

Go Bastardi, It's your birthday... uh huh

Yeah...especially since he won't be. He won't be right about highs in the 20's for Houston either. Not from this round. Maybe when the pattern reloads in a couple of weeks well have another shot...but not from this one.

[aggiecutter]

Bastardi is the batter that is always swinging for the fence. He strikes out a lot more than he connects. However, when he hits a grand slam, people forget about all the strike outs.

[southerngale]

When I lived in Corpus (2003-early 2006) we only managed to see snow during one event (of course the big Christmas event). It just doesn't happen with any kind of frequency. If you want snow, you have to move north. I left Corpus because the weather, frankly put, bored me. Sea-breezes and afternoon thunderstorms in the summer, occasional cold rains in the winter but nothing of any real significance aside from the hurricane watch every few years. The Panhandle is an awesome location to forecast for. We get the dryline in the spring, the eastern periphery of the "monsoon" in the summer, cold intrusions in the fall (sometimes a secondary severe peak as well) and some of the highest snowfall amounts in TX during the winter.

While everyone to my east and west, including right down the coast to where you were saw a good bit of snow, you can see what I got in this thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... wing+house

Needless to say, it still left me desperately wanting snow!

While the weather certainly isn't boring here (how do you like floods pretty often?), you're right about the snow...just not much chance of it happening! I do love the thunderstorms we get here... when my electricity stays on.

Actually, I have thought about moving north. I wouldn't want to live in a place like Michigan where they have to shovel snow all the time and the temperature is unbearable for a lot of the winter, but a place like Amarillo or Dalhart seems just about perfect. Will I do it? I don't know.

[Air Force Met]

Bastardi is the batter that is always swinging for the fence. He strikes out a lot more than he connects. However, when he hits a grand slam, people forget about all the strike outs.

He's the Babe Ruth of weather...without as many homers.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Southerngale is your MSN forecast forecast for Bmt legit????

I'm in PN and our MSN forecast on Feb 8 is Hi 70 Lo 50.