TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[wall_cloud]

Actually, I have thought about moving north. I wouldn't want to live in a place like Michigan where they have to shovel snow all the time and the temperature is unbearable for a lot of the winter, but a place like Amarillo or Dalhart seems just about perfect. Will I do it? I don't know.

dude, Dalhart? Have you ever been there?

[aggiecutter]

The NAM @84hrs is really driving the cold air into Texas. It has highs, one after the other, coming down the front of range Rockies heading for the central part of the state. This is quite the opposite of the runs of the GFS, which has had the highs coming into Montana, then heading through the central plains and off to the east. The NAM is driving that air deep into the heart of Texas, no doubt about it.

NAM@84hrs 0Z run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[GeneratorPower]

Actually, I have thought about moving north. I wouldn't want to live in a place like Michigan where they have to shovel snow all the time and the temperature is unbearable for a lot of the winter, but a place like Amarillo or Dalhart seems just about perfect. Will I do it? I don't know.

dude, Dalhart? Have you ever been there?

I *HAVE* been to Dalhart (Channing, TX) and it is AWFUL. I love all kinds of weather and that place has just ONE kind. DRY and WINDY.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Southerngale is your MSN forecast forecast for Bmt legit????

I'm in PN and our MSN forecast on Feb 8 is Hi 70 Lo 50.

it was legit earlier, but it has since changed.

The MSN forecasts are pretty much useless. They tend to flip aroud every 6 hours and if it is not less than 2 days out, it is likely wrong.

However, it is fun to look at when it shows forecasts like it did earlier. Always nice to see a snow symbol for a place where it is rare.

[southerngale]

Southerngale is your MSN forecast forecast for Bmt legit????

I'm in PN and our MSN forecast on Feb 8 is Hi 70 Lo 50.

It was earlier. BreinLa told me about it because it said something similar for Lafayette, La. as well.

Now it looks more like yours... the GFS has ran again since then.

[southerngale]

Actually, I have thought about moving north. I wouldn't want to live in a place like Michigan where they have to shovel snow all the time and the temperature is unbearable for a lot of the winter, but a place like Amarillo or Dalhart seems just about perfect. Will I do it? I don't know.

dude, Dalhart? Have you ever been there?

dude?

Nope, never been there and now I'm guessing I don't want to. lol
I just like their NWS forecasts.

[double D]

The NAM @84hrs is really driving the cold air into Texas. It has highs, one after the other, coming down the front of range Rockies heading for the central part of the state. This is quite the opposite of the runs of the GFS, which has had the highs coming into Montana, then heading through the central plains and off to the east. The NAM is driving that air deep into the heart of Texas, no doubt about it.

NAM@84hrs 0Z run:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

The 0z GFS is starting to look somewhat similar the NAM, while the NAM shows a 1040mb high sliding down the Rockies, the GFS has a 1036. The GFS has shifted it's high further west from preivous runs, it will be interesting to see if it holds this trend.

[aggiecutter]

double d, the upper air pattern of the two models is almost identical, but the NAM is definitely driving the cold air a lot more south than the GFS. The GFS just shunts everything off to the east with only a glancing blow to Texas. At the surface, there is a big disparity between the two models. If you'll remember, the GFS held the January front stationary at the Oklahoma-Kansas border. Yet, it made it all the way into Central Mexico.

[wall_cloud]

Actually, I have thought about moving north. I wouldn't want to live in a place like Michigan where they have to shovel snow all the time and the temperature is unbearable for a lot of the winter, but a place like Amarillo or Dalhart seems just about perfect. Will I do it? I don't know.

dude, Dalhart? Have you ever been there?

dude?

Nope, never been there and now I'm guessing I don't want to. lol
I just like their NWS forecasts.

sorry, my high school vernacular shows up sometimes

[southerngale]

N/P - I really don't mind being called a dude. Down here, everyone is a dude, but just wanted to point out I wasn't REALLY one. lol

[Yankeegirl]

Southerngale would be a dude if Bon Jovi wanted her to be.... His little dude...

[wall_cloud]

N/P - I really don't mind being called a dude. Down here, everyone is a dude, but just wanted to point out I wasn't REALLY one. lol

poor perception on my part. i didn't know that you weren't a dude! southerngale is sort of unisex

[Extremeweatherguy]

1039mb high in NW Canada has strengthened to 1041mb overnight...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

[TexasStooge]

I could be wrong on the areas where the precip may fall, because the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the central portion of North Texas including Dallas/Fort Worth until 9:00AM CST This Morning. That advisory also goes in effect for Northwestern areas of North Texas including Gainesville, Decatur, Graham, and Mineral Wells until 1:00PM CST this afternoon.

AREAS OF LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM
COMANCHE AND STEPHENVILLE...INTO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX
THROUGH MID MORNING. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...
GENERALLY ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
VERY QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...THUS SOME VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH
AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...OR ON GRASSY AREAS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

The Significant Weather Advisory pretty much sums up the morning commute:

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BOSQUE COUNTY
SOUTHWESTERN COLLIN COUNTY
DALLAS COUNTY
SOUTHERN DENTON COUNTY
NORTHERN ELLIS COUNTY
EASTERN ERATH COUNTY
HAMILTON COUNTY
NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTY
HOOD COUNTY
SOUTHERN JACK COUNTY
JOHNSON COUNTY
EASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY
PARKER COUNTY
SOMERVELL COUNTY
TARRANT COUNTY
SOUTHERN WISE COUNTY

AT 659 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
AREA OF SLEET AND SNOW...FROM DECATUR AND JACKSBORO...TO MINERAL
WELLS AND WEATHERFORD...TO GRANBURY...GLEN ROSE...STEPHENVILLE AND
DUBLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED...
THOUGH AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH...BUT MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS. INITIAL SLOW AND
SLEET MIX WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN LATER IN THE MORNING. LOCAL
REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METROPLEX INDICATE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS TO ONE HALF INCH
OCCURRING ON MAINLY GRASSY AREAS IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...WITH A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3320 9843 3240 9818 3195 9816 3134 9852
3209 9742 3244 9654 3318 9656 3321 9735

[Air Force Met]

1039mb high in NW Canada has strengthened to 1041mb overnight...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

OK...met lesson:

A two MB change overnight on the sfc chart is diurnal...not strengthening.

Here is the "rules of thumb" to use (or at least the ones they taught us back in the old days):

Below the LND (SFC, 850 charts), expect a 2-3 MB rise in pressures on the 12z chart and a 2-3 mb drop in pressure on the 00Z chart due to dirunals (if you are compairing the previous 12 hr chart). On the 850...expect a 10-20 meter rise on the 12Z & a 10-20 meter drop on the 00Z.

Above the LND...on the 700, 500, 300..etc....expect a 10-20 meter DROP in heights on the 12Z chart and a 10-20 meter rise on the 00Z chart.

This is useful during hurricane season if you want to see if a high over the SE US is breaking down or not. If the 12Z chart at 500mb showes height falls of 20 meters...then what you actually have is no height falls at all.

If...on the other hand...you have the same heights on the 12z cahrt...then you actually have 10-20 meter height rises.

But...+2 mb change on the "cold chart" (which is what the 12Z chart is called) is not a change...it's static....just like a -2mb change on the "hot chart" (the 00Z chart).

[Yankeegirl]

Its funny... the local mets are saying we are going to have a cold weekend, when the actual temps they are forecasting for Saturday and Sunday are warmer than today and yesterday... They didnt say anything about today or yesterday being cold... I guess its all in the news hype... ?

[HouTXmetro]

What's up with the snow in Oklahoma and Winter weather along the I-35 corridor this morning? Doesn't that mean the temps might be a colder when this blast comes through?

[aggiecutter]

The EURO for about the 6th run in a row still has the southern plains and Texas very cold Sat-Mon.. Also, the NAM continues its trend of driving the cold air deep into Texas.

0z EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

6zNAM@ 84hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[Air Force Met]

The EURO for about the 6th run in a row still has the southern plains and Texas very cold Sat-Mon.. Also, the NAM continues its trend of driving the cold air deep into Texas.

0z EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

6zNAM@ 84hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Gotta question. Off of the charts you are posting for the Euro...where are you seeing the very cold air being driven into the southern plains and into Texas?

[HouTXmetro]

The EURO for about the 6th run in a row still has the southern plains and Texas very cold Sat-Mon.. Also, the NAM continues its trend of driving the cold air deep into Texas.

0z EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

6zNAM@ 84hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

What type of cold are we speaking of and to what extent in Texas? How far South are we talking? I don't know how to read those maps.