Southern States - LA-MS-AL-GA-TN Winter Storm Potential

HarlequinBoy · #121 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 4:24 pm

Advisories are starting to go up.

Winter Weather Advisory over most of Central into Southern Arkansas. Snow Advisory for Northern Arkansas. And Winter Weather Advisories for Northeast Mississippi and Northern Alabama.

Currently, temps are just below freezing here south of Memphis and the high of 38 didn't materialize. No Advisories are in effect, but Sleet/Snow is expected, forecasters aren't sure if it will reach Advisory criteria yet.

It's important to note though, that it only takes a dusting of snow here to get schools closed, lol, which is what I'm hoping will happen. I'd like a snow day. :lol:

HarlequinBoy · #122 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 4:56 pm

NWS in Jackson is putting out a Winter Weather Advisory for the northern parts of their viewing area for light icing.

Roads are reported to be icy and snow covered in areas north of Memphis. Since ground and road conditions are very cold, the snow is not having any trouble accumulating once it reaches the ground. Some areas have received close to an inch of snow.

Light snow/sleet accumulations are expected late tonight in the Memphis area and into Northern Mississippi. I'm observing a temp just below 32 here with thick clouds but not a drop or flurry to report and temps are expected to hold steady or drop by a degree overnight.

It should also be noted that the precip is having a hard time reaching the ground. The atmosphere is very dry and although radar has been showing snow over some areas for several hours it hasn't reached the ground yet. That has been the case here.

HarlequinBoy · #123 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 6:41 pm

The temperature has dropped to 30 here and is in the 20s across most of the Mid South. Some areas are in the teens!! EDIT: (backup to 32 here)

It's still just cloudy and the local news says this area will remain mostly cloudy until late when snow/sleet will move in. They said possibly an inch.. and numerous school districts are already closed for tomorrow, lol.

Unfortunately there has been 1 fatality due to the snow in Jonesboro, Arkansas where an inch of snow has fallen so far.

Law enforcement in Craighead County are reporting 2 1/2 inches of snow with numerous accidents. At least 20 already.. with 10 reported in Dyer County.

HarlequinBoy · #124 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 7:31 pm

Forecast Updated at just a few moments ago.

Tonight...Periods of snow...Freezing rain and sleet. Ice accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. Snow and sleet accumulation around 1 inch. Cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Thursday...Periods of snow...Freezing rain and sleet early in the morning...Then periods of rain and light snow in the late morning and afternoon. Less than an inch snow and sleet accumulation. Cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Thursday Night...Rain and snow likely. Little if any snow accumulation. Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

And along with the forecast update comes new advisories.

Memphis is now under a Snow Advisory with 2 inches possible.

NW MS is now under a WWA with 1 inch snow/sleet 1/10 inch ice possible.

HarlequinBoy · #125 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 8:57 pm

Well, finally Wintry Precip is accumulating in the area of focus for this thread. No wintry weather here yet.. although radar has been showing precip for quite some time, but the dewpoint is 19 with a temp of 32. But here's some reports from Tallahatchie County.

0718 PM SLEET GLENDORA 33.83N 90.29W
01/31/2007 E0.00 INCH TALLAHATCHIE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED MODERATE
SLEET FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TALLAHATCHIE
COUNTY. SLEET WAS BEGINNING TO COVER THE GROUND AS OF 715
PM.

0732 PM SLEET OAKLAND 34.05N 89.91W
01/31/2007 E0.00 INCH YALOBUSHA MS TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HEAVY SLEET FALLING WHICH WAS
BEGINNING TO COVER THE GROUND IN OAKLAND IN YALOBUSHA
COUNTY.

EDIT: 8:21 PM. Very light flurries now falling.

breeze · #126 Postby **breeze** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 9:38 pm

We've had our first round of sleet before 7:00pm. The temp has dropped, and, it looks like another round of....something.....is on the horizon in a few hours.

~Annette~

icicle · #127 Postby **icicle** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 9:42 pm

very light snow has just started here.

breeze · #128 Postby **breeze** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 9:57 pm

Icicle, the Columbus AFB radar shows that you're pushing the precip my way -
BRING IT ON!!! :wink:

~Annette~

Jim Cantore · #129 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:06 pm

I just heard reports that it snowed in Birmingham, can someone confirm?

HarlequinBoy · #130 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:12 pm

Very light sleet here right now.. mixed with flurries. It's too light to accumulate to anything.

Looking on radar it doesn't look like much else is coming. Is precip supposed to redevelop later tonight?

icicle · #131 Postby **icicle** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:24 pm

Its changed over to light sleet here.

HarlequinBoy · #132 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:45 pm

There's a light dusting of snow/sleet on the tops of cars and roofs..

Still looks like the back edge of precip is moving quickly this way.

I'm not sure if there's going to be any redevelopment overnight. Anyone know?

Although the NWS has this to say, and of course they know much better than me, lol.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
942 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007

ARZ049-MSZ001>009-TNZ090>092-010600-
ALCORN-BENTON-DESOTO-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-LEE(AR)-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-
PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CORINTH
942 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007

.NOW...

AREAS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. TRAVEL ACROSS THIS AREA THIS
EVENING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...PLEASE USE EXTREME
CAUTION. SNOW AND SLEET WILL AVERAGE HALF AN INCH THROUGH 12 AM.
ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY AS MORE SNOW AND SLEET WILL FALL OVER THE
AREA. ROADS WILL BECOME ICY.

This is reported near Tupelo:

0910 PM SLEET VERONA 34.19N 88.72W
01/31/2007 E0.00 INCH LEE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LEE COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS REPORTED THAT SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY AND
ACCUMULATING.

icicle · #133 Postby **icicle** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:01 pm

They are saying more is supposed to develop overnight, but who knows.
EDIT: I work at lee com, and I live one county east of them. Light to moderate sleet here.

HarlequinBoy · #134 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:57 pm

Up on the balcony there is now a glaze of freezing rain, with a slushy mixture of rain, sleet, and snow on the cars and roads.

At last check precip was light and was actually more rain than anything now, so at this point I'm expecting school in the morning and am going to bed, lol.

#135 Postby **baygirl_1** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 11:37 am

Here's what Mobile NWS is saying today:

SYNOPSIS...AND THE DANCE CONTINUES...WITH SEVERAL EVENTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD CREATING A HEADACHE KIND OF FORECAST.

And...

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FRIDAY STARTS WITH NEXT ROUND OF UPPER ENERGY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN (NAM ADVERTISING RIDGE BUILDING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THAN THE GFS). SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF (ACCORDING THE GFS...WITH THE NAM ADVERTISING FARTHER NORTH) THIS BUILDING RIDGE HELPS TO KEEP THE ENERGY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS FROM MOVING TOO FAR SOUTH...BUT MAINTAINING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF(NORTH-CENTRAL IN THE NAM). THIS FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY LOSES STEAM PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER GETTING SHUNTED EAST. IT DOES STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL TEMP GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT...THOUGH...SO WHEN MORE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF(AND THE BOUNDARY)...GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS SET UP OVER THE GULF COAST. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS IS WHERE THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS STARTS TO INCREASE.
WITH THE NAM ADVERTISING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH...THE PRECIP SHIELD IS FARTHER NORTH...OVER THE COLDER AIR. RESULT IS THE NAM ADVERTISING A MEASURABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 65. THE GFS...WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD AND BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH...IS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE MIXED PHASE PRECIP POSSIBILITIES....BUT IS STILL ADVERTISING IT. FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE TEMPS...BUT FEEL THAT PRECIP WILL END BEFORE ANY WINTER PRECIP CAN OCCUR. AN EYE WILL NEED TO BE KEPT UPON THIS...WITH ANY LITTLE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FRONT AND/OR PRECIP SHIELD WILL RESULT IN WINTER PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.

Yet another "maybe, maybe not" situation for this weekend. We're about to head upstate, where it seems the chances of mixed precip would probably be better. Of course, I'm lucky: DH is from the Midwest. If there's any snow, sleet, or such, he's the DD! :lol:

HarlequinBoy · #136 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 3:52 pm

Overnight the light dusting of sleet and snow melted and was replaced with a glaze of around 1/10 an inch of freezing rain, which melted by 9 AM.

Within the last 20 minutes it's started sleeting again, but is melting on contact.

HarlequinBoy · #137 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 4:50 pm

Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007

...WINTER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END ON FRIDAY.

ARZ049-MSZ001-002-007-008-020545-
/O.EXB.KMEG.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070202T1200Z/
LEE(AR)-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TUNICA-TATE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...TUNICA
340 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THIS EVENING AS
A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.
EXPECT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA TONIGHT.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

It's been sleeting here since 230 PM, with a dusting of sleet on the grass.

Radar shows this area of precip ending soon, so I'm assuming any snow we get will be with precip yet to form.

After expecting close to an inch of precip last night, and only getting a light glaze of ice and sleet, I'm not really sure that anything will be received here. Especially since we're on the southern edge of the Advisory.

HarlequinBoy · #138 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 7:38 pm

On and off snow/sleet since about 230 PM. No accumulation really.. but more precip is inching towards the Mid South and temps have dropped a degree or two.

Greenville and Cleveland are also now under a WWA.

breeze · #139 Postby **breeze** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 7:53 pm

We only had a very light dusting, this morning - looking at the radar, it looks
to be a BUST again, tonight.

(*breeze puts away her snow shoes and dreams of building a snowman...)

~Annette~

HarlequinBoy · #140 Postby **HarlequinBoy** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 10:07 pm

Don't give up hope breeze. We have snow falling here at a good clip with a dusting on the ground.

Southern States - LA-MS-AL-GA-TN Winter Storm Potential

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