12P/Tropical Cyclone Nelson (E. Gulf of Carpentaria)

[Chacor]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:10 pm CST Tuesday 30 January 2007

A weak tropical low, 1006 hPa, is situated over Melville Island. The low is
expected to move slowly east and gradually deepen during the next three days.

If the low moves offshore, the potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone
in the southern Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria is estimated to be:

Wednesday: low,
Thursday: low,
Friday: moderate.

The low previously located in the Gulf of Carpentaria has moved east over Cape
York Peninsula.

NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.




No mention from the JTWC as yet.

[Chacor]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST Wednesday 31 January 2007

A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from Elcho
Island to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

At 3:30 pm CST TROPICAL LOW was centred in the southern Arafura Sea about 80
kilometres north of Elcho Island and 165 kilometres northwest of Nhulunbuy
moving east at 15 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move southeast
into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday or Friday.

There is the possibility of a TROPICAL CYCLONE developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop
later.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 3:30 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 135.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the east at 15 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WATCH is now current from Elcho Island to Numbulwar,
including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

People from Elcho Island to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt
should listen for the next advice which will be issued at 11:00 pm CST


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Chacor]

If this storm is named, it will be "George".

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LISTED ON THE INDIAN
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE REF A) LOCATED NEAR 11.1S
134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 135.1E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 310051Z AMSU IMAGE REVEAL FLARING CONVECTION ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY
OFFSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE WESSEL ISLANDS WITHIN AN AREA OF TIGHT
SURFACE TROUGHING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT BUT MODERATE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

As of 0600UTC from the JTWC.

[Chacor]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:06 pm CST Wednesday 31 January 2007

A CYCLONE WATCH has been extended to include coastal and island communities from
Elcho Island to Port McArthur, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

At 9:30 pm CST a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the southern Arafura Sea about 135
kilometres north of Nhulunbuy and 155 kilometres northeast of Elcho Island
moving east northeast at 20 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move
southeast into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday.

There is the possibility of a TROPICAL CYCLONE developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop
later.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 9:30 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.0 degrees South 136.6 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the east northeast at 20 kilometres per
hour
. Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WATCH is now current from Elcho Island to Port McArthur,
including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

People from Elcho Island to Port McArthur, including Nhulunbuy and Groote
Eylandt should listen for the next advice which will be issued at 5:00 am CST


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Chacor]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [11:30 am EST] Thursday 1 February 2007

A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Elcho
Island in the Northern Territory to Weipa in Queensland, including Nhulunbuy,
Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island.

At 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Arafura Sea
about 140 kilometres north northeast of Nhulunbuy and 330 kilometres north
northeast of Alyangula moving east northeast at 8 kilometres per hour. The low
is expected to move southeast into the Gulf of Carpentaria later today.

There is the possibility of a TROPICAL CYCLONE developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop
later.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST]:
. Centre located near...... 11.1 degrees South 137.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 37 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the east northeast at 8 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WATCH is current from Elcho Island in the Northern
Territory to Weipa in Queensland, including Nhulunbuy, Groote Eylandt and
Mornington Island.

People from Elcho Island in the Northern Territory to Weipa in Queensland,
including Nhulunbuy, Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island should listen for the
next advice which will be issued by 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST]


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Coredesat]

TCFA:

Code: Select all

WTXS21 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 010151Z FEB 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN A 205 NM RADIUS OF 11.2S 138.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
AT 010000Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
11.2S 138.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.2S 138.0E, APPROXIMATELY
430 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CONVECTION
IS DIRECTLY OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS
CLEARLY DEFINED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, AND A 312253Z
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND IS ENTERING A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO
35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE
TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 020300Z.//

[Chacor]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:08 pm CST [5:38 pm EST] Thursday 1 February 2007

A CYCLONE WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Nhulunbuy to Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt .
A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for coastal and island communities from Numbulwar
in the Northern Territory to Weipa in Queensland, including Mornington Island.
The CYCLONE WATCH between Elcho Island to Nhulunbuy has been cancelled.

At 3:30 pm CST [4:00 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Arafura Sea about
145 kilometres east northeast of Nhulunbuy and 310 kilometres northeast of
Alyangula moving southeast at 15 kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to move south into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Friday and
develop into a tropical cyclone, but is not expected to cross the coast in the
next 24 hours.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on Groote
Eylandt during Friday. GALES may extend to the mainland coast between Nhulunbuy
and Numbulwar later on Friday or during Saturday as the developing cyclone
approaches the coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the Arnhem region during Friday
night and Saturday, extending into the Roper-McArthur region later.


Details of TROPICAL LOW at 3:30 pm CST [4:00 pm EST]:
. Centre located near...... 11.6 degrees South 138.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 15 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current from Nhulunbuy to Numbulwar,
including Groote Eylandt .
A CYCLONE WATCH is now current from Numbulwar in the Northern Territory to Weipa
in Queensland, including Mornington Island.

People from Nhulunbuy to Weipa, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island
should listen for the next advice which will be issued by 8:00 pm CST [8:30 pm
EST]


This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Crostorm]

TC Advice #6 now out. System is now moving south:
"TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 8:00 pm CST [8:30 pm EST] Thursday 1 February 2007
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities
from Nhulunbuy to Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal and island communities
from Numbulwar to Weipa, in Queensland, including Mornington Island.

At 6:30 pm CST [7:00 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW
centred in the Arafura Sea about 130 kilometres east of Nhulunbuy and 270
kilometres northeast of Alyangula moving south at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to continue moving south into the Gulf of Carpentaria on
Friday and develop into a tropical cyclone, but is not expected to cross the
coast in the next 24 hours.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on Groote
Eylandt during Friday. GALES may extend to the mainland coast between Nhulunbuy
and Numbulwar later on Friday or during Saturday as the developing cyclone
approaches the coast.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the Arnhem region during Friday
night and Saturday, extending into the Roper-McArthur region later.


Details of TROPICAL LOW at 6:30 pm CST [7:00 pm EST ]:
. Centre located near...... 12.0 degrees South 138.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south at 16 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals"

[Chacor]

Very close to becoming TC George...

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [11:30 pm EST] Thursday 1 February 2007

A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
Nhulunbuy to NT/Qld Border, including Groote Eylandt.
A CYCLONE WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border
to Weipa, in Queensland, including Mornington Island.

At 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW
was relocated to be centred in the Gulf of Carpentaria about 185 kilometres east
of Nhulunbuy and 280 kilometres northeast of Alyangula moving southeast at 20
kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to continue moving south into the Gulf of Carpentaria on
Friday and develop into a tropical cyclone, but is not expected to cross the
coast in the next 24 hours.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected to develop on Groote
Eylandt during Friday. GALES may extend to the mainland coast between Nhulunbuy
and Numbulwar later on Friday or during Saturday as the developing cyclone
approaches the coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the Arnhem region during Friday
night and Saturday, extending into the Roper-McArthur region later.


Details of TROPICAL LOW at 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST ]:
. Centre relocated near...... 12.5 degrees South 138.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 20 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is now current from Nhulunbuy to NT/Qld Border,
including Groote Eylandt.
A CYCLONE WATCH is now current from NT/Qld Border to Weipa, in Queensland,
including Mornington Island.

People from NT/Qld Border to Weipa, in Queensland, including Mornington Island
should listen for the next advice which will be issued at 2:00 am CST [2:30 am
EST ]



This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[HurricaneBill]

If it gets named, it'll be the first named cyclone from the Northern Australia list since Cyclone Fay in 2004.

Also of note, Fay was the last cyclone to cause any deaths in Australia.

[AussieMark]

the Gulf of Carpentaria seem to only get cyclones in El Nino years and this is yet another one.

[HurricaneBill]

There was Cyclone Kathy in 1984.

[Crostorm]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
System seems to be intensifying slightly.

Latest TC advisory for this system
"TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [11:30 am EST] Friday 2 February 2007
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the Northern Territory to Karumba in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt,
Borroloola and Mornington Island.

At 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Gulf of
Carpentaria about 405 kilometres east of Alyangula and 510 kilometres northeast
of Borroloola moving south southeast at 22 kilometres per hour.
The low is forecast to move southwards during today before turning southwest
overnight. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone tonight, but is not
expected to cross the coast in the next 24 hours.
GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop on Groote Eylandt or
Mornington Island early on Saturday morning. GALES may extend to the mainland
coast between Cape Shield in the Northern Territory and Karumba in Queensland
later Saturday morning as the system approaches the coast.
HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the Arnhem district during tonight
and Saturday, extending further west into the Top End and Roper-McArthur
district during the weekend.
Details of TROPICAL LOW at 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST]:
. Centre relocated near.... 13.3 degrees South 140.1 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 22 kilometres per
hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals"

[Chacor]

WTPS21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 020251ZFEB07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8S 140.0E TO 16.6S 138.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
139.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.4S
139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, A
012238Z SSMI PASS, AND A 012051Z QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICT A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS RAPIDLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTH. DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALY-
SIS INDICATES THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED AS THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD TOWARD AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030300Z.//

[HurricaneBill]

Hopefully, it won't be a rapid developer like Harvey in 2005.

[Crostorm]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:00 pm CST [2:30 pm EST] Friday 2 February 2007

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the Northern Territory to Karumba in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt,
Borroloola and Mornington Island.

At 12:30 pm CST [1:00 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Gulf of
Carpentaria about 340 kilometres east of Alyangula and 450 kilometres northeast
of Borroloola moving south southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to move southwest during today and tonight. The low may
develop into a tropical cyclone early Saturday morning, and is expected to move
closer to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop on Groote Eylandt early
on Saturday morning. GALES may extend to Mornington Island and the mainland
coast between Cape Shield in the Northern Territory and Karumba in Queensland
during Saturday morning.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast between
Port Roper and Karumba tonight and Saturday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End and
Roper-McArthur District.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 12:30 pm CST [1:00 pm EST ]:
. Centre relocated near.... 13.5 degrees South 139.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 18 kilometres per
hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING continues from Cape Shield in the Northern
Territory to Karumba in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Borroloola and
Mornington Island.

The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST ].



This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm just hoping these people upgrade this to a cyclone at all.

[Coredesat]

I doubt it:

[Crostorm]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY



TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [5:30 pm EST] Friday 2 February 2007

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the Northern Territory to Karumba in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt,
Borroloola and Mornington Island.

At 3:30 pm CST [4:00 pm EST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Gulf of
Carpentaria about 175 kilometres east of Alyangula and 295 kilometres northeast
of Borroloola moving southwest at 20 kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to move southwest tonight and tomorrow. The low may develop
into a tropical cyclone early Saturday morning, and is expected to cross the
southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Port Roper and Port McArthur during
Saturday.

GALES with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between
Port Roper and the Queensland border early Saturday morning. GALES may extend
north to Cape Shield in the Northern Territory or east to Karumba in Queensland
if the system changes direction.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to cause MINOR FLOODING at the coast between
Port Roper and Karumba tonight and Saturday.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the eastern Top End and
Roper-McArthur District.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 3:30 pm CST [4:00 pm EST ]:
. Centre relocated near.... 14.0 degrees South 138.0 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 20 kilometres per hour
. Wind gusts near centre... 75 kilometres per hour
. Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING continues from Cape Shield in the Northern
Territory to Karumba in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt, Borroloola and
Mornington Island..

The NEXT ADVICE will be issued at 8:00 pm CST [8:30 pm EST].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre