SW Indian Ocean: Intense Tropical Cyclone Dora 07R (10S)

[HURAKAN]

Always the latest image!!! Visir satellite.

[ncupsscweather]

that is a awesome satellite image.. Can't wait until the Atlantic 07 Season

[Chacor]

The Met Service of Mauritius has issued a bulletin for the Rodrigues:


AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE UN EST EN VIGUEUR A
RODRIGUES

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE UN EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES
6EME BULLETIN DE CYCLONE EMIS A 2230 HEURES LE 31 JANVIER 2007.

A 2200 HEURES LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DORA ETAIT CENTREE DANS
UN RAYON DE 50 KM AUTOUR DU POINT 14.0 DEGRES SUD ET 66.2 DEGRES
EST SOIT A ENVIRON 685 KILOMETRES AU NORD-NORD-EST DE RODRIGUES.
ELLE SE DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD SUD EST.
DORA REPRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE MENACE POUR RODRIGUES. DES BANDES
NUAGEUSES PEU ACTIVES INFLUENCERONT LE TEMPS A RODRIGUES .

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE 1 RESTE EN VIGUEUR A
RODRIGUES.

LE TEMPS RESTERA NUAGEUX AVEC DES AVERSES PLUS FREQUENTES SUR
LES HAUTS.

LE VENT D'EST SOUFFLERA AVEC DES RAFALES DE L'ORDRE DE
80 KILOMETRES/HEURE.

LA MER SERA FORTE .

IL EST CONSEILLE AU PUBLIC A RODRIGUES DE MAINTENIR LES
PRECAUTIONS PRELIMINAIRES.

LE PROCHAIN BULLETIN SERA EMIS DEMAIN A 0430 HEURES

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE UN EST EN VIGUEUR A
RODRIGUES
UN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE DE CLASSE UN EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES=

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks at least 85 knots to me...Nice storm

[Chacor]

BULLETIN DU 01 FEVRIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL DORA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 970 HPA.
POSITION LE 01 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 14.9 SUD / 67.2 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1380 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 16.8S/68E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 19.2S/67.2E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 20.5S/65.5E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
IL SERA REACTUALISE A 16H30

Tropical Cyclone Dora (970 hPa) 65 kt, moving SE 9 km/h. Forecast to strengthen to 70kt in 12h before weakening.

[HURAKAN]

BULLETIN DU 01 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL DORA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 955 HPA.
POSITION LE 01 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 16.1 SUD / 68.3 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1425 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 14 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 18S/68.3E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 19S/67.8E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 19.9S/66.3E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 04H30 LOCALES

80 knots. Dora has continued to intensify exceeding previous expectations.

[Chacor]

Further strengthened.

Tropical Cyclone Dora [947 hPa] near 16.9S / 68.4E. 85 kt (10-min) winds.

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/02 12 UTC: 17.7S/68.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/03 00 UTC: 18.2S/68.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/03 12 UTC: 18.7S/68.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/02/04 00 UTC: 19.0S/67.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2007/02/04 12 UTC: 19.4S/67.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/02/05 00 UTC: 20.0S/66.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-.
RAGGED EYE PATTERN RATHER COLD MAINTAINS ON THE SATTELITE IMAGERY.
DESPITE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, MATERIALIZED BY AN ARC OF
CIRRUS,
AND THE DRY AIR MASS, OBVIOUS ON THE WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, CDO BESCOMES MORE SYMETRIQUE UNDERGOING AN
VERY
GOOD OUTFLOW POLARWARD
S.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DORA
SHOULD
RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE GLOBALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.
THE RSMC SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS.=

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks good out of a slow season so far.

[HURAKAN]

This baby is not stopping, not just yet!!!

[P.K.]

Just been upgraded to Intense Tropical Cyclone Dora with 95kt winds (942hPa).

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5+
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE ANNULAR CYCLONE WHICH DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME COOLER AND EYE WARMER IMAGE AFTER IMAGE (AMSU 0909S
, 1047Z, SSMI 1355Z, SSMIS 1557Z).
SINCE 1100Z, EYE HAS APPAREAD ON THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY. IT IS A LARGE EYE
(>0.75Ao) AND THEN POSITIVE ADJUSTEMENT CAN BARELY BE DONE IN THE DT.
DORA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE IN A MID LEVEL OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
WEST. INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE HINDERED BY SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BRUTALLY BECOME UNFAVOURABLE AND THE
SYTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

02/2030 UTC 18.3S 67.9E T6.5/6.5 DORA


I would say slightly less but still 120-125 knots, This thing looks good.

[wxmann_91]

It's lacking strong deep convection, but looking pretty good with impressive structure:

[Cyclenall]

Best looking tropical cyclone of 2007 so far...

Dora appears to be a very powerful cyclone. That eye is huge! That donut of energy must be at least 120 knots by now. I'm not so sure to call it annular though, has too many rainbands. Overall, very impressive.

[AussieMark]

02/2030 UTC 18.3S 67.9E T6.5/6.5 DORA


I would say slightly less but still 120-125 knots, This thing looks good.

Remember Matt in the Southern Hemisphere Season the standard is actually 10 min winds

[Chacor]

Further strengthened - 100 kt, 930 hPa.

[wxmann_91]

Guys, you should check out this satellite image (dialup users beware: long loading times)

Link

[Coredesat]

Definitely doesn't look very healthy right now, in spite of the cloud structure:

[Chacor]

BULLETIN DU 04 FEVRIER A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


CYCLONE TROPICAL DORA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 950 HPA.
POSITION LE 04 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 18.9 SUD / 67.3 EST
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1220 KM A L'EST
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19.8S/65.4E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.1S/63.3E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 22.3S/61.2E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PRCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 16H30 LOCALES

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 081210

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 46/7/20062007
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 ( DORA)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/08 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1S / 62.6E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/09 00 UTC: 25.8S/61.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2007/02/09 12 UTC: 26.4S/60.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2007/02/10 00 UTC: 26.9S/58.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2007/02/10 12 UTC: 27.6S/56.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2007/02/11 00 UTC: 28.5S/54.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2007/02/11 12 UTC: 29.4S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DORA IS MAKING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND DVORAK DOESN'T PERMIT
WINDS INTENSITY ESTIMATION ANYMORE.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ET CAN
LOCALLY REACHING 50KT UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THIS SEMI-CIRCLE.
DORA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS WHILE ACCELERATING
GRADUALLY.
WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE
CONTRACTION OF THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION :
INTENSITY OF THE LLCC LOCATED AT 0930UTC NEAR 16.2S/51.5E DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF WARNING AT 1200UTC.
IT'S HOWEVER MONITORED BY RSMC AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE BULLETIN
FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN (AWIO20) ISSUED TODAY.

[P.K.]

ET now.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 49/7/20062007
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-DORA)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/09 AT 0600 UTC :
26.1S / 61.6E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 600 SO: 450 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/09 18 UTC: 27.0S/60.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2007/02/10 06 UTC: 28.2S/57.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2007/02/10 18 UTC: 29.0S/56.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2007/02/11 06 UTC: 29.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2007/02/11 18 UTC: 31.0S/52.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2007/02/12 06 UTC: 32.8S/50.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:

DEEP CONVECTION IS WARMING AND BECOMES ASYMMETRIC, AS DRY AIR IS
WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM BY THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DESPITE OF THE
WEAKENING
OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, THE MID-LEVELAND HIGH LEVEL CIRCURALTIONS IS
MORE
EASTWARDS THAN THE LLCC 'S ONE.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
THE
CONTRACTION OF THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ONTHE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THEN EVACUATED INTO THE NEXT TROUGH.=