South Pacific: TD 09F (Invest 96P) T2.5

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 02/0909 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [1002 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11S 178E AT
020600 UTC MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARDS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 28 TO 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

09F LIES UNDERNEATH A LOW LEVEL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SHEAR TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT.CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH ORGANISATION BECOMING APPARENT.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE INITIALISED THE SYSTEM AND AGREES WITH
INITIAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT BEFORE STEERING IN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

____________________________________________________________

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7S 176.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 405 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO EVIDENT IN A
02/0135Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY
ALSO REVEALS THAT CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERIES OF THE CIRCULATION AND IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT
THE SOUTHWESTERN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME WELL-ORGANIZED
AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.



02/1433 UTC 11.9S 176.3E T2.5/2.5 96P -- South Pacific Ocean

The next storm is brewing!!!

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 03/0157 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [1000HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
175.2E AT 030000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURAFACE OBSERVATIONS.
DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 07 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TURN AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. 09F LIES
UNDERNEATH A 250HPA DIFLLUENT REGION WITH RELATIVELY MODERATE TO
STRONG SHEAR. LATEST CIMSS INDICATE SHEAR INCREASING TO NORTH BUT
DECREASING TO SOUTH. CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED SPATIALLY.
SOME WARMING OCCURED PAST 3 HOURS THOUGH. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH,
DEVELOPING TO SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED TO WEST. DVORAK BASED ON 0.4 WRAP
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT2.5. MET AND PAT AGREE AT 2.0, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREE CELCIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON GRADUAL TURN AND ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 09F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 030800 UTC.

Next name is Becky.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 03/0756 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [1000HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
176.6E AT 030600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HRES MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURAFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION
MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

SYSTEM APPEARS DISORAGNISED WITH NO CONTINUES BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED JUST SOUTH OF LLCC IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT EVIDENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 09F HAS BEEN
INFULENCED BY SHORTWAVE UPPER [250HPA] TROUGH, IN WEAK SHEAR. OUTFLOW
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK BASED ON 0.2 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT2.0. MET AND PAT AGREE AT 2.0, THUS T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
SST AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREE CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 09F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 031400 UTC.

[Chacor]

325
WTPS21 PGTW 030200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 030151ZFEB07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 12.6S 175.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 030000Z
INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 175.0E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S
176.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 175.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL
CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW (EQUATORWARD AND WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE) THAT
IS MERGING WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW (EQUATORWARD AND EAST OF THE
DISTURBANCE) TO CREATE A STRONG CONVERGENT BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF A PRE-EXISTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 021844Z
QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 022021Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEAL ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZATION
OF THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. MOREOVER, A PERSISTENT AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN EVIDENT NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS.
THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION,
SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS, AND A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040200Z.//

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 177.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTH OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. TC 11P IS TRACKING SOUTH-
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED EAST OF THE TC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEPENING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED UPSTREAM, WHICH WILL FURTHER ACT TO STEER
THE TC SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. TC 11P WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES
OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 030151Z
FEB 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 030200).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.//

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0747 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [997 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S
180.0E AT 040600 UTC. POSITION FAIR. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION INCREASED PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ABOUT LLCC, INCREASING SPATIALLY AS WELL. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED
TO THE WEST BUT GOOD ELSWHERE. DVORAK BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT2.5. MET AND PAT AGREE AT 2.5, THUS
T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREE CELCIUS. 09F MAY
DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE NEX 6 TO 12 HOURS, BEFORE RUNNING INTO
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR SOUTH OF 20S.
DEPRESSION CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHEAST AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST
TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 09F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 041400 UTC.

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 041200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 04/1400 UTC 2007 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F [997 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
179.5W AT 041200 UTC. POSITION POOR. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS.

SYSTEM IS SHEARED. MAJOR CONVECTION NOW LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF LLCC.
OUTFLOW BECOMING RESTRICTED OVER THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ON 1130Z SATPIX
BASED ON 0.25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT2.0. MET = PAT = 2.0,
THUS T2.0/2.5/S0./24HRS. SST AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREE CELCIUS. 09F
DEVELOPMENT IS BEING RESTRICTED. THERE APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER
SECONDARY CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH OF LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS RUNNING
INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND RELATIVELY STRONGER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. DEPRESSION CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHEAST AROUND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS LOW.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 09F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 042000 UTC.