TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[Portastorm]

BTW, after looking at the last several Euro runs ... and the Canadian model ... I'm going to say right now that I like Texas' chances next weekend of being as cold if not colder than this weekend. The models continue to suggest a strong high sliding down the leeside of the Rockies straight into Texas. Furthermore we may see some overunning that could end up being frozen. I'm mainly talking about central and south central Texas.

Flame away if you'd like.

[vbhoutex]

First time poster here, and I would like to thank the Pro Mets here for their analysis of all these models. I did not particularly like the analysis that AFM gave, however it was only because I wanted the cold. A very nice call on what would happen. I also like reading the analysis of some of the amateur mets here too.

I would like to not get OT here, however, I have seen several posters here from the Houston area, and was wondering if any here remember a snow fall back in Houston during Jan 1973? It was the first time I ever saw snow and we were living in Spring Branch and got around 2-3 inches I believe. It also snowed 2 more times in Feb 1973. I know because we skipped school because it wasn't called off, got caught and spent Saturday in detention. Then guess what it did that Saturday? Right, it snowed.

Then we moved to Oregon where it snowed every other day before my dad moved us back to East Texas. I seemed to remember that we have had several Feb's here where we had ice. I know we got married on Feb 17, 1979 in an ice storm here in Tyler. Maybe we'll have another shot at one more winter event before spring.

Hey Piney Woods, glad you made it back to Texas as soon as you could!!!

I was here in Spring Branch with my new wife of 8 months when that first snow out of 3 for that winter hit. We did get 2-3 inches here in Spring Branch even though I think the official shows less than that. BTW, 34 years later we are still in Spring Branch. I can tell you it isn't the SB you knew, but we still love it here. No plans to leave, even with the kids out of the nest. Still waiting for another winter like 1972-73!!! Haven't seen anything approach that in this neck of the woods since then. Definitely February seems to be when we have gotten many of our ice events(not that we get them often).

WELCOME TO STORM2K!!!

[double D]

The CPC would tend to agree with you Portastorm.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... mp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... cp.new.gif

[double D]

Well we might have something to talk about agian as a couple of NWS's offices are also indicating some cold air next weekend. Let's see if the GFS wants to join the bandwagon.

Here is the long range disco from San Angelo:

LONG TERM...
REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT SHOULD OVERALL THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE
RED RIVER AND HEAD SOUTH PRETTY QUICKLY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. WITH
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOWING THE WEST COAST RIDGE
WEAKENING...THE COLDER AIR MASS STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF HUGGING
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND DROPPING INTO TEXAS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
NUMBERS...BASED AS MUCH ON THE ECMWF AS ANYTHING ELSE. THE ECMWF
IS INDICATING A SURFACE HIGH FARTHER WEST AND COLDER 850 MB
TEMPS...SO IF IT ENDS UP HOLDING THIS TREND...WE WILL NEED TO TAKE
TEMPS DOWN EVEN MORE NEXT WEEKEND.
NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
OVERRUNNING IN PLACE...CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING IN SOME SMALL POPS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston also seems to be buying into more cold weather next weekend:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CST SAT FEB 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOSTLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR AT 850MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. AM RELUCTANT
TO KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
PROGGED TO POOL ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TX SUN AFTERNOON. BUT
WITH LOW 1000-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PROGGED ACROSS EAST TX
WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO NORTH TX SUN NIGHT
AND PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO EAST TX MONDAY BUT THE BULK OF THE
COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN GENERAL TO RETURN TO NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES IS PROGGED BY THE 12Z GFS TO FLATTEN OUT WEDNESDAY
AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WED NIGHT AS A RESULT AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TX. THE GFS PROGS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TX THURS NIGHT AND QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THURS
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BELIEVE THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURS
NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR NOW. MORE COLD AIR LOOKS ON TAP FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

[southerngale]

First of all, a big welcome to PineyWoods!! I hope you enjoy it here.


I'll buy into it when I see a snowflake or the bowl of water on my porch freezes.

My back is too sore...playing backup for Portastorm has just about killed me.

[JenBayles]

It's getting close enough to my spring garden cleanup that I'm more than ready for the end of winter. It still hasn't been cold enough to do more than brown the edges of some of my tender tropicals, and I sure hope it stays that way! Without the distraction of the Christmas holidays, this winter landscape is for the birds... literally. The goldfinches are eating me out of house and home with their thistle seed requirements.

One thing I'm very glad to see is that most of Texas has gotten some badly needed rain over the past month or so. Go El Nino!!

[wall_cloud]

well I didn't do a great job with the last system and I'll be the first to admit it. We did undercut the guidance by a good 20 degrees in the medium range (days 4-6 or so) and we were right on. the problem was that we held on to the cold air too long. the model was actually correct this time on quickly eroding the cold dome and we thought it was the typical bias showing up. We were 29 on Friday and jumped to 51 on Saturday. Ouch.

[Kelarie]

This is kinda off topic, but because she lives in Austin and mentions the ice storm there, I thought you guys might want to see it.

Btw, it is HILARIOUS!!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 03#1515503

I'm going to be on the lookout for Gladys!!

I hate to bust your bubble, but Gladys isn't really a woman.
They were talking about this on KVET last week or maybe the week before, and it is actually a guy.

[Johnny]

Houston/Galveston Discussion This Morning.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
GFS PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE TRAPPED MOISTURE
BEHIND FRONT.


Too bad it won't be cold enough for anything of the frozen variety.

[LarryWx]

The issue though is that we have to go through the same thing with some members with every single cold threat. The pros have to counter-post some "realism" into the discussion many times over, and yet some people still don't seem to get the message. It is not a one-time occurance; it is a repeatable pattern of consistent bias.

There is nothing wrong with asking questions, learning, or even being wrong. The weather is not an exact science and opinions can vary widely. It's another thing IMO to so confidently and so forcefully say that professional sources are going to "bust badly" and give false information to users seeking weather information. It borders on irresponsible or should at least use a disclaimer as we use in the tropical forum.

If one is big enough to make such bold statements, then they should be big enough to face the music when they are wrong.

----------------------------
From 7 days out they basically missed the timing by a day. Neither they nor the NWS called for severe cold and it didn't happen; it was a run-of-the-mill front for us as forecasted. I'd hardly call that a bust. Calling for highs in the 20's here and teens in Dallas - now that was a bust.

I've been closely following this thread. I strongly agree with what jschlitz said, especially with what I highlighted. I don't think I could have said it any better.

[cheezyWXguy]

The issue though is that we have to go through the same thing with some members with every single cold threat. The pros have to counter-post some "realism" into the discussion many times over, and yet some people still don't seem to get the message. It is not a one-time occurance; it is a repeatable pattern of consistent bias.

There is nothing wrong with asking questions, learning, or even being wrong. The weather is not an exact science and opinions can vary widely. It's another thing IMO to so confidently and so forcefully say that professional sources are going to "bust badly" and give false information to users seeking weather information. It borders on irresponsible or should at least use a disclaimer as we use in the tropical forum.

If one is big enough to make such bold statements, then they should be big enough to face the music when they are wrong.

----------------------------
From 7 days out they basically missed the timing by a day. Neither they nor the NWS called for severe cold and it didn't happen; it was a run-of-the-mill front for us as forecasted. I'd hardly call that a bust. Calling for highs in the 20's here and teens in Dallas - now that was a bust.

Nonetheless, NWS did bust pretty badly too warm up in Dallas...it was supposed be flurries after midnite thu nite, but it started about 2 in the afternoon on thursday and it began to accumulate which was completely unexpected and friday morning i awoke with about an inch and a half on the grass and ice on some sidewalks...Fort Worth NWS hasnt been doing well this year, altho i can see why...its been very confusing and the littlest change can throw everything off

[double D]

I'm starting to think that next weekend will end up just cool not cold. Looking at the models this morning, it still appears that the high slides off to the east and Texas gets a glancing blow once again. It might feel a little cooler due to overrunning rains, but the brunt of the cold appears to hit the east and southeast US.

I don't think February will be our month for extreme cold.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm starting to think that next weekend will end up just cool not cold. Looking at the models this morning, it still appears that the high slides off to the east and Texas gets a glancing blow once again. It might feel a little cooler due to overrunning rains, but the brunt of the cold appears to hit the east and southeast US.

I don't think February will be our month for extreme cold.

I have no idea how u can randomly make a decision about the entire month of february based on this weekend...besides its still 7 days away...nothings written in stone...lets just wait and see...i think well have a chance, but who knows

[Portastorm]

Today's 12z GFS run shifts the polar high trajectory further west from the 0z run and more in keeping with the last few runs of the European.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml

As you can see, the 1044 mb high comes down through eastern Montana and in a better trajectory for Texas (if you want it cold) than previous GFS runs. Will be interesting to see if this trend with the GFS continues.

The 0z European actually shunts the high further east in the Plains than the 12z GFS:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

I have not done any research into source region temps so while the movement of the high would be favorable for colder weather in Texas next weekend, the source region temps may negate the previous factor.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Today's 12z GFS run shifts the polar high trajectory further west from the 0z run and more in keeping with the last few runs of the European.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _156.shtml

As you can see, the 1044 mb high comes down through eastern Montana and in a better trajectory for Texas (if you want it cold) than previous GFS runs. Will be interesting to see if this trend with the GFS continues.

I have not done any research into source region temps so while the movement of the high would be favorable for colder weather in Texas next weekend, the source region temps may negate the previous factor.

Here is a link showing current temperatures in Canada: http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather ... anada.html

The cold air is a little further west in Canada than before this last outbreak.

[double D]

I'm starting to think that next weekend will end up just cool not cold. Looking at the models this morning, it still appears that the high slides off to the east and Texas gets a glancing blow once again. It might feel a little cooler due to overrunning rains, but the brunt of the cold appears to hit the east and southeast US.

I don't think February will be our month for extreme cold.

I have no idea how u can randomly make a decision about the entire month of February based on this weekend...besides its still 7 days away...nothings written in stone...lets just wait and see...i think well have a chance, but who knows

Well considering that this weekend will be the 10th and 11th of Feb., our time for cold is running out. Most of our arctic outbreaks come from western Canada, and all the very cold air is in central and eastern Canada. The time it takes for the arctic air to build back up, we will be into the latter part of February and it's very rare for Texas to have extreme cold that late in February. If you live in Dallas, then your chances of cold are a little better than for us in central and southeast Texas. Also, there were a couple of pro mets from various sources forecasting VERY COLD historic outbreaks for Texas, and that's what I meant by " I don't think February will be our month for extreme cold".

[Portastorm]

I'm starting to think that next weekend will end up just cool not cold. Looking at the models this morning, it still appears that the high slides off to the east and Texas gets a glancing blow once again. It might feel a little cooler due to overrunning rains, but the brunt of the cold appears to hit the east and southeast US.

I don't think February will be our month for extreme cold.

I have no idea how u can randomly make a decision about the entire month of February based on this weekend...besides its still 7 days away...nothings written in stone...lets just wait and see...i think well have a chance, but who knows

Well considering that this weekend will be the 10th and 11th of Feb., our time for cold is running out. Most of our arctic outbreaks come from western Canada, and all the very cold air is in central and eastern Canada. The time it takes for the arctic air to build back up, we will be into the latter part of February and it's very rare for Texas to have extreme cold that late in February. If you live in Dallas, then your chances of cold are a little better than for us in central and southeast Texas. Also, there were a couple of pro mets from various sources forecasting VERY COLD historic outbreaks for Texas, and that's what I meant by " I don't think February will be our month for extreme cold".

Don't disagree with you double D ... but I do want to remind you that the last winter we saw a waning El Nino (2003), we had quite a major winter weather event here in central Texas during late February ... 2 days of sleet, snow, and ice. Not saying that will happen ... but it's not unprecedented. No denying though that time is quickly running out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Time is certainly running out, but that doesn't mean we will be spared from any more cold. A few notable events late in the winter season (for the Houston area only), include...

-Mar. 10th and 11th, 1932 ~ Nearly an inch of snow falls in Houston

-Feb. 24th, 1965 ~ Glaze of ice in Houston

-Feb. 17th and 18th, 1973 ~ About 1.5" of snow falls in Houston

-Feb. 21st, 1964 ~ Trace of snow falls in Houston

-Feb. 14th and 15th, 1895 ~ 20+" of snow falls across SE Texas

-Feb. 16th, 1895 ~ Houston hits 13-degrees

-Feb. 13th and 14th, 1899 ~ Houston hits 6-degrees on the 13th and 10-degrees on the 14th.

In recent years...

Feb. 27th, 2002 = Houston hits 22-degrees
Mar. 4th, 2002 = Houston hits 22-degrees
Feb. 19th, 2006 = High of 38 degrees in Houston.

[srainhoutx]

Time is certainly running out, but that doesn't mean we will be spared from any more cold. A few notable events late in the winter season (for the Houston area only), include...

-Mar. 10th and 11th, 1932 ~ Nearly an inch of snow falls in Houston

-Feb. 24th, 1965 ~ Glaze of ice in Houston

-Feb. 17th and 18th, 1973 ~ About 1.5" of snow falls in Houston

-Feb. 21st, 1964 ~ Trace of snow falls in Houston

-Feb. 14th and 15th, 1895 ~ 20+" of snow falls across SE Texas

-Feb. 16th, 1895 ~ Houston hits 13-degrees

-Feb. 13th and 14th, 1899 ~ Houston hits 6-degrees on the 13th and 10-degrees on the 14th.

In recent years...

Feb. 27th, 2002 = Houston hits 22-degrees
Mar. 4th, 2002 = Houston hits 22-degrees
Feb. 19th, 2006 = High of 38 degrees in Houston.

great post EWG. I feel some people forget how interesting Feb and early Mar can be in SE TX for Winter Weather Events...