TSR Febuary forecast=16/9/4=81% probability landfalls in U.S

[cycloneye]

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

This Febuary forecast from the TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) folks is an increase from the January one that had 15/8/4.The most important thing are the landfalls and they are predicting an 81% chance of landfalls in the U.S coastline.Also they have the landfall probabilities high for the Lesser Antilles.

[MiamiensisWx]

Link won't work. Could a server error or issue with the site be responsible?

[Lindaloo]

It works for me.

[ncupsscweather]

link worked fine for me too

[Rainband]

me too

[MiamiensisWx]

Now it is loading successfully for me at last on my new laptop. It might have been a server issue on my original PC.

[cycloneye]

Ok,the PC issue of our friend,Miamieniswx has been resolved,now those who haved read the Febuary outlook from TSR can comment about it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

El ninos forecast to diminish...yikes that means we could be looking at a pretty active season..also ssts are forecast to increase...

We'll watch temperatures and ssts over the next several months to see how much of an increase ssts show.

[harmclan]

El Nino conditions continue to rapidly decrease towards neutral ENSO. La Nina conditions could be present come start of hurricane season at current rate. Winter here in central Florida has been relatively mild this season. No significant cooling was ever apparent, and it appears, besides a few more cold fronts knocking the temps into the 60s in the future forecast, that winter is beginning to subside. This mirrors the SST's being historically high.

Although last year was quiet in regards to U.S. strikes, one reoccuring theme was impressive waves apparent on satellite images. However, El Nino conditions and the presence of SAL and high shear prevented these waves from developing into potent storms. With neutral - La Nina conditions present, it allows for the POTENTIAL for a more active season.