Moderate TS Enok 08R east of Madagascar - JTWC: TC 13S

[Chacor]

350
TPXS10 PGTW 060911

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE E OF MADAGASCAR

B. 06/0830Z

C. 19.0S/0

D. 51.1E/7

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/STT: D0.5/09HRS (06/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

JAYKOSKI

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 18.5S 50.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A
051701Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WEST OVER
LAND WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL DEVEL-
OPING. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

06/0830 UTC 19.1S 51.3E T1.5/1.5 98S -- South Indian Ocean

[Chacor]

WTXS21 PGTW 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070951Z FEB 07//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 071000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7S 50.9E TO 15.4S 55.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 080600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 51.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
50.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 51.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), ALTHOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. A 080318Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS WEAK BANDING ON
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUR-
RENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS SUPPRESSING POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN
THE SHORT TERM. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS, AND AN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS BACK OVER THE DISTURBANCE, ABUNDANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE LLCC. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. SINCE A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC PERSISTS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091000Z.//

[P.K.]

This got a mention in the last Dora advisory.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION :
INTENSITY OF THE LLCC LOCATED AT 0930UTC NEAR 16.2S/51.5E DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF WARNING AT 1200UTC.
IT'S HOWEVER MONITORED BY RSMC AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE BULLETIN
FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN (AWIO20) ISSUED TODAY.

The MetArea bulletin has it as a 1002hPa low.

[HURAKAN]

Shear seems to be affecting the disturbance.

08/1430 UTC 16.0S 52.2E T2.0/2.0 98S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Another cyclone is possible is a few days!!!

[HURAKAN]

Becoming better organized!!!

[Aslkahuna]

JT issued their first advisory on TC13S at 09/0900Z.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

09/0830 UTC 15.2S 54.4E T2.5/2.5 13S -- South Indian Ocean

[P.K.]

A little old but I'll post it anyway.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/8/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8

2.A POSITION 2007/02/09 AT 0600 UTC :
15.3S / 53.7E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/09 18 UTC: 15.9S/56.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/02/10 06 UTC: 17.4S/58.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/02/10 18 UTC: 19.4S/60.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2007/02/11 06 UTC: 21.7S/62.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2007/02/11 18 UTC: 23.7S/62.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2007/02/12 06 UTC: 25.3S/62.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS FLARED ABOVE THE LLCC DURING THE LAST NIGHT.
THE STRONEST WINDS ARE LOCATED INTO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
THE
MONSOON FLOW.
CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION (RATHER GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, NO VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). IN LOW LEVELS, THE
NORTHERN INFLOW IS GOOD, BUT IT REMAINS POOR POALEWARDS DUE TO DORA.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING
MONSOON
FLOW, THEN MORE SOUTHWARDS DUE TO THE TROUGH ARRIVING AT THE END OF
FORECAST PERIOD.=

[P.K.]

08R is now a 30kt TD increasing to a 40kt moderate TS within 12 hours and a 50kt severe TS in 24 hours.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/8/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8

2.A POSITION 2007/02/09 AT 1200 UTC :
15.1S / 55.4E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/10 00 UTC: 16.2S/57.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2007/02/10 12 UTC: 17.9S/60.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/02/11 00 UTC: 19.7S/62.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/02/11 12 UTC: 21.7S/63.6E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/02/12 00 UTC: 23.4S/64.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/02/12 12 UTC: 26.4S/65.1E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS FLARED ABOVE THE LLCC DURING THE LAST NIGHT.
THE STRONEST WINDS ARE LOCATED INTO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE
MONSOON FLOW.
CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION (RATHER GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, NO VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). IN LOW LEVELS, THE
NORTHERN INFLOW IS GOOD, BUT IT REMAINS POOR POALEWARDS DUE TO DORA.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING MONSOON
FLOW, THEN MORE SOUTHWARDS DUE TO THE TROUGH ARRIVING AT THE END OF
FORECAST PERIOD.

[HURAKAN]

"Enok" will be the next name!!!

[Chacor]

624
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070951Z FEB 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 53.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 53.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.7S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.0S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.3S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.7S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 54.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 090319Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES WELL
DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY BEING PARTIALLY RESTRICTED BY THE REMNANTS
OF 10S TO ITS SOUTHEAST. TC 13S IS CURRENTLY ON THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE STORM WILL CONTINUE
ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL
TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
NER.
THE DYNAMICAL AIDS ARE INDICATING A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN, WITH MANY
OF
THE MODELS ABSORBING TC 13S INTO AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 10S. THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU
48 DUE TO THE RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 070951Z FEB 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 081000). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER
TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DORA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

[Chacor]

DEPRESSION TROPICALE ENOK

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 09 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 15.1 SUD / 55.4 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE-CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 640 KM AU NORD
DEPLACEMENT: EST A 20 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 17.9S/60.6E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.7S/63.6E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 26.4S/65.1E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
SYSTEME 08 BAPTISE ENOK A 17 LOCALES (13 UTC)

This is still a TD from MF, but Madagascar obviously consider it a moderate TS as they've named it Enok at 1300 UTC.

[P.K.]

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 09/02/2007 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENOK) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2S / 57.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 11 KT

TC strength forecast within 12 hours.

[HURAKAN]

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENOK

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 983 HPA.
POSITION LE 09 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 15.2 SUD / 57.0 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 645 KM AU NORD-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: EST-NORD-EST A 20 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 17.9S/61.4E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.9S/63.8E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 25.9S/65.5E

[HURAKAN]

Enok is well underway to become a very strong cyclone!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking very good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks good to me, about 40-45 knots if one minute.

[Chacor]

09/2030 UTC 15.6S 57.9E T3.0/3.0 ENOK -- South Indian Ocean

NRL/1-min:
/TC/tc07/SHEM/13S.ENOK/ir/geo/1km20070210.0030.meteo7.x.ir1km.13SENOK.50kts-987mb-153S-569E.100pc.jpg