Southern States - LA-MS-AL-GA-TN Winter Storm Potential

[Lowpressure]

NWS Charlotte mentioning too far out for details, but climatology suggests this looks like the set up for an ice storm. See Charlotte forecast discussion.

[icicle]

seems we have some wintry mix moving through the area. frz rain advisories are out, but it doesnt look all that bad on radar.

[HarlequinBoy]

Yeah, icicle, some parts of North MS and TN saw some light freezing rain last night.

Where I live I didn't noticed anything, but cars at my school had ice on them from some light freezing rain in the north part of the county and some school districts were out again due to icy roads.

For some people that's 3 days off in the last week. I only got one though, lol.

[HarlequinBoy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1013 AM CST THU FEB 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ALLOW FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
TEMPERATURES WHERE PRECIP WAS FALLING ARE BEGINNING TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AND RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIP DIMINISHING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTH MS. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FROM CLARKSDALE
TO TUPELO AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THAT COULD STILL MOVE
INTO THAT AREA. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS BOTH HINTED AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS IS A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS MORNING. THE AREA AFFECTED
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH...MORE CONTAINED TO NORTH MS.
THIS IS DUE TO THE COLD AIR PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH. THE MECHANISMS
RESPONSIBLE ARE A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS AT
THIS TIME. THE 12Z SOLUTIONS ARE HINTING AT IT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
HAVE NOT HAD MUCH OF A CHANCE TO THOROUGHLY EXAMINE THE 12Z DATA
WHICH IS WHY THERE IS NOT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST YET.

[icicle]

We didnt get much here, and while these little events are nice, I would much rather have some decent snowfall for a change. we havent had anything over 3'' here where I live since 87 or 88. (we have had a couple of ice storms though) My daughter, who is 12, has never saw anything more than a dusting here, maybe I should take here up to the G.L. region Lol. Anyway, time is running out for us to get a shot of snow this winter. Its late in the game, but the games not over yet, because the end of next week looks like it MIGHT be interesting. EDIT: I forgot about the 4 '' of sleet here in 96.

Yeah, icicle, some parts of North MS and TN saw some light freezing rain last night.

Where I live I didn't noticed anything, but cars at my school had ice on them from some light freezing rain in the north part of the county and some school districts were out again due to icy roads.

For some people that's 3 days off in the last week. I only got one though, lol.

[HarlequinBoy]

Potential for light icing tonight.

Freezing Rain Advisory Issued By Memphis TN:

PHILLIPS-COAHOMA-QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE(MS)-
ITAWAMBA-TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HELENA...CLARKSDALE...BATESVILLE...
OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...TUPELO...AMORY...ABERDEEN
305 PM CST THU FEB 8 2007

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM CST FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW THE FREEZING
POINT. AS A RESULT...FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY
AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


Freezing Rain Advisory Issued By Jackson MS:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM CST FRIDAY.

MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAINS CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. INITIALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT ANY IMPACT ON ROAD
SURFACES HOWEVER AS THE RAINS INCREASE...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
ENOUGH TO REACH FREEZING OR JUST BELOW FREEZING EARLY FRIDAY. AT
THIS POINT...BRIDGES AND ELEVATED OBJECTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE LIGHT ICING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCLUDING THE
USUAL MORNING COMMUTE TIME FRAME.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS FROM AROUND GRENADA TO WEST POINT
AND COLUMBUS COULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST BY ICING OF AROUND ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH THICK FRIDAY MORNING.

Winter Weather Advisory Issued By Birmingham AL:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM CST
FRIDAY.

A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 4 AM AND
6 AM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA STATE LINE. THE WINTRY MIX
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON. SPOTTY ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.05 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...THEN REMAIN NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON EXPOSED OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES AND BRIDGES...AND MAY
PRODUCE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP OFF INTO THE MID 20S.
THEREFORE...ANY ICE THAT ACCUMULATES WILL LIKELY NOT MELT UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS MAY EXIST INTO SATURDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.


Special Weather Statement Issued by Memphis TN:
...LIGHT ICY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD DEVELOP
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO PARSONS
TENNESSEE. THIS INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS METROPOLITAN AREA. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. THERE COULD BE A FEW
TROUBLE SPOTS ON THE ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

[HarlequinBoy]

We didnt get much here, and while these little events are nice, I would much rather have some decent snowfall for a change. we havent had anything over 3'' here where I live since 87 or 88. (we have had a couple of ice storms though) My daughter, who is 12, has never saw anything more than a dusting here, maybe I should take here up to the G.L. region Lol. Anyway, time is running out for us to get a shot of snow this winter. Its late in the game, but the games not over yet, because the end of next week looks like it MIGHT be interesting. EDIT: I forgot about the 4 '' of sleet here in 96.

Yeah, icicle, some parts of North MS and TN saw some light freezing rain last night.

Where I live I didn't noticed anything, but cars at my school had ice on them from some light freezing rain in the north part of the county and some school districts were out again due to icy roads.

For some people that's 3 days off in the last week. I only got one though, lol.

Yeah, I've noticed that even though Tupelo is only really a little bit south of the Memphis area, latitude wise, it tends to get a lot less wintry precip, especially snow. I wonder why that is?

The first winter storm I remember is The Ice Storm of 1994, but only vaguely. I always hear about how bad it was. After that I remember a few ice and snow events and since 2000 the only really significant events was about 6 inches of snow in January 2000 and an ice storm in December 2000, followed by snow on New Year's Eve. The next few winters brought one or two 1 inch snowfalls each and then in December 2004 about 2 inches of sleet and ice fell giving us a White Christmas and the sleet stayed on the ground for a while. Then last February we received nearly 4 inches of snow in about 5 hours time, which was quite a surprise. Then around 3 inches last Thursday night.. so around here we don't get a lot of snow or ice, but we usually get an event or two each winter.

[icicle]

Oh, the ice storm of 94 was a scary and dangerous event. I remember my ex-wife and I driving up to her mothers house in the middle of it because we had lost power, and trees were literally falling in the road behind us and in front of us, and i'm talking about 30 to 40 foot pine trees. The highway dept would clear one out, and two more would fall in its place. It took us over an hour to go 9 miles. The sounds of multipy trees breaking sounded like a battle going on with rifles, I'll never forget it........

as far as why we dont get as much snow here as memphis does, I honestly dont know, but I do wonder, because their only like 50 miles north of me..just the breaks I suppose.

[icicle]

check out precip type on GFS, hours 108 to 144. that would be nice if it came true..snow all the way to the Ms gulf coast.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/i ... ?model=gfs

[Lindaloo]

I have enjoyed the last few days of warm weather. I guess the cold is coming back?

[icicle]

^ Its sure looking like it.

[JQ Public]

Some are talking about an extended sleet storm for several areas in nc. Like GSO. I know the carolina's isn't considered in your classification of "southern states" but we're about as southern as you can get. lol