TX Winter Wx Threat # 11-- sleet and snow in a lot of Tx/La

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS looks pretty cold and wet. Here is the breakdown...

Wednesday
Morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
Afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml
Evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

Summary = Wednesday looks like a day full of increasing clouds and cold air advection. In north Texas, a winter weather event may be well underway by the afternoon hours.

Thursday
Morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _114.shtml
Afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
Evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

Summary = Thursday is looking like the coldest of the days. Clouds, moisture and continued cold air advection will likely mean more winter precip. in north Texas and a possible wintry mix as far south as central and even parts of SE Texas. Another interesting thing is that the upper-levels of the atmosphere will be fairly cold as well. This means that snow or sleet (even at temps. above 32-degrees) may be more common than freezing rain if the 18z is correct. I wouldn't even rule out something in Houston as well, because even though we may be just above freezing, the upper-levels should be below freezing.

Friday
Morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
Afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml
Evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml

Summary = If the 18z is correct, then we may be clearing out by Thursday night/Friday morning as a strong area of high pressure builds in RIGHT OVER Texas. This may mean a very cold Friday morning, a sunny (yet chilly) Friday afternoon and then possibly another freeze Friday night as well.


Also, here is the temperature output for IAH from the 18z GFS run:

Wednesday morning = 38F
Wednesday afternoon = 49F
Wednesday evening = 41F
Thursday morning = 35F
Thursday afternoon = 36F
Thursday evening= 35F
Friday morning = 24F
Friday afternoon = 44F
Friday evening = 30F

If this output ends up right, then it means Thursday may struggle to get out of the 30s and Thursday night/Friday morning could feature a hard freeze.

[gboudx]

I'd sure like to read the AFD from the DFW NWS this afternoon. I can't get to that website.

[rsdoug1981]

I'd sure like to read the AFD from the DFW NWS this afternoon. I can't get to that website.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/Displ ... ame=Dallas

NWS page has been down for a while.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS page is finally back up and here is a look at the latest forecast for my area:

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 54.

Looks like the downward trend continues. However, if the models are right, then even these numbers could be too warm.



Also, here is a look at the forecast for Austin next Wed night/Thurs:

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of snow or rain. Cloudy, with a low around 33. North northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: A chance of snow or rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

They are expecting a rain/snow mix with temps. just above 32. I think this is certainly possible (since the upper levels will be so cold), and Houston (especially the northern suburbs) may have a shot at some of this too. We will just have to see what happens. Interesting week ahead for sure though..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Check out the forecast from ABC13...



They are being surprisingly bullish with this and going MUCH colder than the NWS.

Update: I just watched David Tillman's live forecast and he even said that wintry weather could be possible Wednesday night and Thursday morning for Houston ("especially northern parts"). Very interesting indeed...

[srainhoutx]

Check out the forecast from ABC13...



They are being surprisingly bullish with this and going MUCH colder than the NWS.

Heard Tim Heller ABC 13 last evening mention Snow for all of N TX and possible wintry mix in SE TX... interesting

[Portastorm]

JB just posted a Saturday evening update with a mention of snows possible as far south as I-10 in Texas later Wednesday into Thursday.

[rsdoug1981]

JB just posted a Saturday evening update with a mention of snows possible as far south as I-10 in Texas later Wednesday into Thursday.

Just read that. I was wondering how long it would take you!

Even the Jackson NWS mentioned it for our area. I'm starting to get a little excited. They actually used the words "good set-up" and "snow" in the same sentence.

[Portastorm]

JB just posted a Saturday evening update with a mention of snows possible as far south as I-10 in Texas later Wednesday into Thursday.

Just read that. I was wondering how long it would take you!

Even the Jackson NWS mentioned it for our area. I'm starting to get a little excited. They actually used the words "good set-up" and "snow" in the same sentence.

Truthfully, I'm not all that convinced yet. Only the GFS runs show a moisture profile favorable for any sleet, snow, or freezing rain. The Canadian and Euro runs look too dry.

Knowing my luck, it'll be cold enough in the atmosphere's vertical profile but not enough moisture with which to work.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB just posted a Saturday evening update with a mention of snows possible as far south as I-10 in Texas later Wednesday into Thursday.

Just read that. I was wondering how long it would take you!

Even the Jackson NWS mentioned it for our area. I'm starting to get a little excited. They actually used the words "good set-up" and "snow" in the same sentence.

Truthfully, I'm not all that convinced yet. Only the GFS runs show a moisture profile favorable for any sleet, snow, or freezing rain. The Canadian and Euro runs look too dry.

Knowing my luck, it'll be cold enough in the atmosphere's vertical profile but not enough moisture with which to work.

I agree, that is my concern too. I think we will be cold enough for winter-type precip. (if not at the surface, then just above it), but I am still not convinced that the moisture will be there. ATM though, I think the chances are getting better and better each day that we will have some moisture in place to work with.

For now, I am just hoping for the best! It would be nice to get a burst of snow or sleet before finally saying GOODBYE to winter!

[double D]

I'm not sold on any precipation for next Wednesday and Thursday either. The precip that the GFS shows is very light and IMHO will trend towards the drier Euro.

Also did JB mention what area of I-10 he was talking about? I-10 near Junction or I-10 near Houston?

I think EWG and I posted at the same time

[Portastorm]

I'm not sold on any precipation for next Wednesday and Thursday either. The precip that the GFS shows is very light and IMHO will trend towards the drier Euro.

Also did JB mention what area of I-10 he was talking about? I-10 near Junction or I-10 near Houston?

I think EWG and I posted at the same time

Didn't say ...

[cheezyWXguy]

JB just posted a Saturday evening update with a mention of snows possible as far south as I-10 in Texas later Wednesday into Thursday.

Just read that. I was wondering how long it would take you!

Even the Jackson NWS mentioned it for our area. I'm starting to get a little excited. They actually used the words "good set-up" and "snow" in the same sentence.

Truthfully, I'm not all that convinced yet. Only the GFS runs show a moisture profile favorable for any sleet, snow, or freezing rain. The Canadian and Euro runs look too dry.

Knowing my luck, it'll be cold enough in the atmosphere's vertical profile but not enough moisture with which to work.

whoa, what happened Portastorm? You seemed pretty bullish on this the past couple of days

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Hey, of course Houston's unlikely to see any snow this time around (it's bizarre enough that y'all were under the gun even once this season!) but what about those of us in the Metroplex? Is this coming snow event already a done deal up here?

[Portastorm]

JB just posted a Saturday evening update with a mention of snows possible as far south as I-10 in Texas later Wednesday into Thursday.

Just read that. I was wondering how long it would take you!

Even the Jackson NWS mentioned it for our area. I'm starting to get a little excited. They actually used the words "good set-up" and "snow" in the same sentence.

Truthfully, I'm not all that convinced yet. Only the GFS runs show a moisture profile favorable for any sleet, snow, or freezing rain. The Canadian and Euro runs look too dry.

Knowing my luck, it'll be cold enough in the atmosphere's vertical profile but not enough moisture with which to work.

whoa, what happened Portastorm? You seemed pretty bullish on this the past couple of days

I'm trying to temper my emotional reaction with meteorological reality before AFM chimes in and bursts the balloon!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB just posted a Saturday evening update with a mention of snows possible as far south as I-10 in Texas later Wednesday into Thursday.

Just read that. I was wondering how long it would take you!

Even the Jackson NWS mentioned it for our area. I'm starting to get a little excited. They actually used the words "good set-up" and "snow" in the same sentence.

Truthfully, I'm not all that convinced yet. Only the GFS runs show a moisture profile favorable for any sleet, snow, or freezing rain. The Canadian and Euro runs look too dry.

Knowing my luck, it'll be cold enough in the atmosphere's vertical profile but not enough moisture with which to work.

whoa, what happened Portastorm? You seemed pretty bullish on this the past couple of days

I'm trying to temper my emotional reaction with meteorological reality before AFM chimes in and bursts the balloon!!

Trying to do the same here Portastorm. However, this time I do feel a little more confident because...

1) It is Colder in western Canada than last time
2) The models are showing a stronger high coming down the plains and not going far NE of us like last time
3) Local mets are buying more into the possibility of cold (and possibly some winter precip.)
4) The model consistancy has been much greater this time over the long run
5) The NWS offices are starting to trend temps. downward and mention winter precip.

These factors give the idea of cold and winter precip. a lot more backing this go around.

[southerngale]

I'm trying to temper my emotional reaction with meteorological reality before AFM chimes in and bursts the balloon!!

KFDM has lowered the high on Thursday to 38°

[double D]

One thing to remember about the precipitation is that during our last little winter storm 3 weeks ago the models were predicting dry weather and as the event came closer were trending wetter. So it will be interesting to see how the models trend the next few days, personally I still think it won't be a major problem.

[Yankeegirl]

Everybody got their rollercoasters ready???

[srainhoutx]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 110219
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
819 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2007

snipet...

LONG TERM...
SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WELL INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEXT CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO BE THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WINDOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NEAR SATURATED COLUMN BEGINNING ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING THE NEAR
SATURATED MODEL PROFILE FOR ABILENE IS ALL BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK. THIS NEAR SATURATED...BELOW FREEZING...COLUMN THEN MIGRATES
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY NOON THURSDAY DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES END ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...MODEL QPF CURRENTLY
SUGGESTS LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.