SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner:

Cloudy and damp conditions return

Discussion:

Fairly strong cold front extends from S of Shreveport to Georgetown to N of Del Rio this morning. Temp. is 48 at Georgetown and a balmy 62 at Austin. VAD profile from Granger/Fort Hood NEXRAD show the cold air mass is only about 1500 ft thick with south flow above the cool surface dome. Area NEXRAD is showing increasing light rain coverage as lift is increasing ahead of the boundary. Some upper support will arrive this afternoon as the front limps through SE TX and this may lead to a few showers along and ahead of the boundary. NAM and GFS both showing .2 to .4 inch of QPF which seems a little high given the lack of strong lift. Feel just light showers with totals at or below .25 of an inch is what most will see.

Surface dewpoints are now exceeding local nearshore water temps along with concrete surface temps resulting in sea fog and “sweating” of concrete surfaces. Cold front should put an end to all this by early evening, however front may hang up over the coastal counties with sea fog problems continuing through tonight along the coast. Boundary should finally push on off the coast and into the Gulf early Friday. Isentropic lift over the cold dome continues Friday and Saturday with cloudy and cool conditions with patches of light rain.

The fun begins Sunday as coastal boundary backs northward in response to approaching upper level energy and lowering pressures over NW TX. Strong sub-tropical jet develops over the area with the returning boundary and showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially N of I-10. Entire area should be within the moist and increasingly unstable warm sector by Sunday afternoon. Strong low amplitude short wave moves across the state Monday producing what could be the first severe weather event of the “Spring season”. Dry line sets up along I-35 midday Monday and sweeps eastward into the warm sector during the afternoon and evening. Strong lift combined with impressive shear profiles and a good tap of moisture points to widespread development. Main dynamics are pointed toward N TX and may just graze SE TX to the north, however lift and moisture may compensate for weaker dynamics over us. We may see some kind of linear MCS form and move across the area Monday night.

Extended:

Models continue to advertise a strong polar front following the Monday weather system with cold arctic air pouring southward into TX the middle of next week. 500mb flow shows upper trough digging into the SW US with surface arctic boundary undercutting the warm moist flow aloft. Am tempted to toss the GFS numbers as they look too warm given the pattern setup and there is plenty of cold air just to our north. Potential is there for 850mb front to produce widespread cold rains Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Close watch will be needed on sounding profiles and surface temps.

Jeff Lindner

[Yankeegirl]

Rain rain go away.... Guess we got a few days of beautiful weather and now we are getting back the the same 'ol rainy wintery weather...

[CajunMama]

We've had some beautiful days here too. I mowed by backyard last night. Got all the leaves up and a poop free yard...at least for a little while! Some of the weeds were still damp and my white poodle was following me and he had green paws!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest from the SPC:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST FRI FEB 09 2007

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHIFTING A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY ON DAY 4
/MONDAY FEB 12TH/...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO OFF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COAST LATE DAY 5 /TUESDAY FEB 13TH/.
INCREASING WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS /50-60 KT/ WITH THIS IMPULSE AND
ATOP RETURN OF DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER GULF MOISTURE PER SSWLY LLJ
SUGGESTS INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS
FROM ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES DAYS 4 TO 5.

BEYOND DAY 5 /TUE/...UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN U.S. AS A POLAR VORTEX
DEEPENS ACROSS THE NERN STATES DAYS 6 & 7 /WED & THU/. DESPITE
STRONG WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...FRONTAL
INCURSION THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS SWD...PRECLUDING ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THREAT.

Still looks like it's "game on" for severe weather next week!

[CrazyC83]

Yep, I'd say Monday in TX/LA, Monday night in MS/AL and Tuesday in N FL/GA/SC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Day 3 Severe outlook:



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CST SAT FEB 10 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...E TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/SRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING DAY 3. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES
AND OH TO TN VALLEYS. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT WITH MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO N TX MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NRN MS/AL BY 12Z
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH NAM/GFS DIFFER WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO
THE ARKLATEX REGION...THE SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60 INTO THIS AREA AND EWD ALONG AR/LA BORDER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE MID 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG THE NW
GULF COAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS E TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. 50-60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGH AND 45 KT SWLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF E TX MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LLJ TRANSLATES EWD AIDING IN
DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest SPC Day 2 Outlook:



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SAT FEB 10 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS E TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...CENTRAL/ERN TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET WILL TRANSLATE EWD
INTO TX AND THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION WITH E TX/LOWER MS VALLEY
RESIDING IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. LATEST MODELS /00Z NAM/GFS/ ARE TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER N
WITH THE TRACK OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT.

ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF DAY 2 FROM NRN TX INTO ERN OK/AR. SSWLY LLJ SHOULD
STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT ACROSS E TX/SRN AR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO 40-60 METER HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACH OF SRN ROCKIES
TROUGH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE INFLUX/WAA FOR DESTABILIZATION
ALONG/E OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG SRN/WRN PERIPHERY OF ONGOING MORNING ACTIVITY AS INHIBITION
DECREASES.

GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/STRONGER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS INCREASING ASCENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE
MOIST AXIS IN E TX/WRN LA. 50+ SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED OVER
THIS REGION BY AFTERNOON ATOP STRONG SSWLY LLJ WILL LIKELY PROVIDE
FAVORABLE STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS. THESE KINEMATICS COMBINED WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG SHOULD ALSO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS. LLJ WILL UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING MONDAY NIGHT AS
IT TRANSLATES EWD AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZES DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS LA/SRN AR INTO
PARTS OF SRN/CENTRAL MS.

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like tomorrow has the making for a very interesting day!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like tomorrow has the making for a very interesting day!!!

Yes, it looks like the chance is there for it to be. However, instability may be a problem. Here is the latest from the NWS...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
756 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY EDGING NORTH TOWARD THE
COAST...VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER SE TX.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND...LOWER 50S NEAR THE
COAST. STILL EXPECT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN SLOWLY RISING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. LOW LEVEL JET
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS BY LATE TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF -RA/-SHRA
OVER CWA ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES IN
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD
FORECAST. LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS MONDAY AFTN AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA...BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/COOL SFC TEMPS. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO SECOND PERIOD OR HWOHGX AT THIS TIME.

Though we may see some isolated severe action tomorrow (including may be a few tornadoes), I think we might be waiting a few more weeks before we see a significant or widespread severe event. However, if we do see some breaks in the clouds and more warming (leading to more instability), then tomorrow could definitely turn out to be an interesting event for sure.

Personally though, I would just be excited to see a few bolts of lightning. It has been a long, long time since I have seen that around here.

We should know more by tomorrow morning about the amount of instability and exact dynamics we will have to work with...

[WhiteShirt]

So, we can expect this bad weather to start here late Monday afternoon?

[Extremeweatherguy]

So, we can expect this bad weather to start here late Monday afternoon?

Showers and storms will be possible beginning late tonight, but yes, tomorrow afternoon and early evening is when we will have the best chance of any severe activity.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0z GFS continues to indicate scattered storms tomorrow afternoon followed by a possible squall-line or MCS feature tomorrow evening. Basically, It is still looking good for storms!

The one concern though, as I mentioned an hour ago, is the amount of instability that will be available. If there is a lot, then I think a decent severe event would be possible, but if there is not much (due to clouds and cool temps) then this will probably only be an isolated severe event (though if your in those "isolated" areas, then it may feel like a major event).

After these storms pass though, I hope everyone is ready for more winter. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 50s with a breezy north wind and on Wednesday and Thursday we will be struggling to get above the mid 40s. Thursday night may even feature a hard freeze threat, we will need to watch that closely.

[southerngale]

NWS issued a Special Weather Statement for us tonight.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
813 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-121000-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
813 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2007

...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY...

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG THE RED RIVER
OF TEXAS. THE RESULTING WARM SECTOR WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS, COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS, AND
FAVORABLY SHEARING WINDS TO BRING ABOUT THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS BY THE EVENING HOURS AS
THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO LOUISIANA. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE THE MAIN RISKS, A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR.

THE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO PASS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
PUNCHES IN FROM THE WEST.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCES AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.


$$

JS/JT

[Jagno]

To my darling Texas neighbors;

Please keep these storms on your side of the Sabine as we are still dealing with saturated grounds here in SW Louisiana. Your cooperation in this matter is greatly appreciated. Besides, Mardi Gras isn't over and we have alot of partying to do.

Thank you,

[southerngale]

Sorry Jagno....this darling neighbor doesn't want the rain either. lol
We're very saturated here too. Maybe a little farther west in Houston? I'm sure they'd love some rain. They haven't gotten as much as we have over here the past ummm "several" (many) months.

I'm waiting on the ground to dry some more so I can tackle my sidewalk problem. It recently sunk in all the water/mud and I'm still walking across a big piece of plywood to get to my car. It's really attractive too.

Have fun at Mardi Gras!

[southerngale]

Here's the latest from SPC. Jagno, maybe it will all dissipate before it gets here and miss all of us.

Categorical




Tornado




Hail




Wind

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST SUN FEB 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX...THE
SRN OZARKS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE SWRN U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...A SFC LOW WILL
ORGANIZE IN WEST TX TODAY AND MOVE EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM RAISING DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60 F ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT DEVELOPING
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE HOUSTON TX AREA AROUND
MIDDAY EXPANDING CONVECTION NWD INTO SE OK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS MASS OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD AND A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP MOVING INTO LA AND WRN MS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE MAIN ELEMENT THAT WILL DRIVE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE. THE ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE STORMS WITH
SUPERCELLS LIKELY ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND 50 KT AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SFC WINDS AS SHOWN ON NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN SE TX WILL CREATE CIRCULAR HODOGRAPHS WHICH SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF LA WITH SUPERCELLS THAT ARE PERSISTENT.
ALSO...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS LA INTO SW
MS AS A LINE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...SRN FL...
A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE EWD TODAY INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS FL. IN RESPONSE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS SFC HEATING SOME THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO SRN FL. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LIFT AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE WARM FRONT NEAR PEAK HEATING IN THE MIAMI AREA. MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL.
HOWEVER...DECREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LESSENING SHEAR PROFILES
SHOWN ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

...CA COAST/SW ORE...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TODAY MOVING
ONSHORE INTO CA TONIGHT. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF CA AND SW ORE. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.

..BROYLES.. 02/12/2007

[Extremeweatherguy]

That latest update from the SPC looks pretty interesting. They upped the chances of severe weather from 15% last night to 30% for wind/hail this morning and 10% for tornadoes. We are basically right on the edge of a moderate risk now.

Should be an interesting day.

[Jagno]

Sorry Jagno....this darling neighbor doesn't want the rain either. lol
We're very saturated here too. Maybe a little farther west in Houston? I'm sure they'd love some rain. They haven't gotten as much as we have over here the past ummm "several" (many) months.

I'm waiting on the ground to dry some more so I can tackle my sidewalk problem. It recently sunk in all the water/mud and I'm still walking across a big piece of plywood to get to my car. It's really attractive too.

Have fun at Mardi Gras!

I was just kidding (not about the saturated ground) about you folks keeping it. I know you have been soaked as much as I have. I do most of my shopping between Orange and Beaumont since you don't pay taxes on food and you have a better selection in everything else. Will they ever finish the road construction???

The real problem, since you brought it up, is that they re-leved my home about a year ago, and we rebuilt. Since all this rain, it has satuarated the ground and shifted my house resulting in cracked sheetrock and the beautiful crown molding is literally popping off. The company I used was out of Port Arthur. Until it dries up they cannot get under there to locate and resolve this problem. I do still have a totaled 3-car garage and apartment.............insurance issues...................just proved to them that it was attached to the house and not detached.

I hope everyone has a great day and is extra careful on the way home from work this evening with these potential storms.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest SPC update. Virtually it is the same (as far as percentages), but the only real change is that the tornado 10% area has been shifted slightly east.

..ERN TX/LWR MS VALLEY...

TROUGH IN SRN BRANCH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER
MS VALLEY BY 12Z TUE. UPSTREAM NEXT IMPULSE MOVES INLAND ACROSS SWRN
U.S. WITH SOME DEEPENING TONIGHT. STRONG MID/UPPER JET SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS NRN MEX INTO CENTRAL TX PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH A PRONOUNCED EXIT REGION LWR MS VALLEY TONIGHT.

GPS/GOES PW ANALYSIS/12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATES MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD NWD FROM WRN GULF INTO SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH
COOL RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD WITH UPPER
TROUGH...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPS INLAND ERN TX AND LA.

SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION PROGGED BY NAM/GFS TO
TRACK EWD SRN OK TO CENTRAL AR BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM
FRONT TO DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA THIS AFTERNOON AND
FURTHER N INTO LA AND SRN MS TONIGHT. WHILE DEWPOINTS OFFSHORE IN
WRN GULF CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S F...MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
BRINGING MUCH MORE THAN LOW 60S F INLAND WHICH LIMITS INSTABILITY
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE LOW WELL INLAND WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION INLAND
AREAS OF SERN TX/SRN LA. MID 60S DEWPOINTS WOULD INCREASE SBCAPE TO
ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND SRN LA TONIGHT.
WITH 50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/30KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH EXIT REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET...CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THREAT WILL INCREASE
BY MID AFTERNOON SERN TX AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN LA.

THE CURRENT WELL DEFINED SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE AS REFLECTED IN THE
CONVECTIVE PCPN EXTENDING NWD FROM THE WRN GULF THRU VCT INTO S TX
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AND LIKELY ENHANCE INITIATION OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL BY THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY HOU.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE CELLS IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOLLOWED BY A MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE ACROSS ERN TX LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN
WARM SECTOR...PARTICULARLY IN THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY
OF WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INLAND. COOL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8C/KM WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE BY THIS
EVENING.

HAVE INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LA WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INLAND IN CONCERT WITH STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.

[JenBayles]

And we're off! Sure, we'll have another quick blast of cold after this, but my old bones are really enjoying being on the warm side of this front for the moment. Aaaaahhhhhh.... So far this morning just some showers here on the west side and another gloomy day. Yankee - when was the last time we saw the sun over here? I've forgotten what it looks like.