Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone Favio (14S) Landfall

[HURAKAN]

12/0830 UTC 11.1S 70.6E T1.5/1.5 91S -- South Indian Ocean



Next name: Favio.

[Chacor]

You might want to edit your post topic, it's 91S

[HURAKAN]

You might want to edit your post topic, it's 91S

I KNEW IT WAS IN THE 90S!!!

[HURAKAN]

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 09-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA.
POSITION LE 12 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 11.7 SUD / 69.6 EST
(ONZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE-NEUF DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1795 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.1S/68.1E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.4S/66E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 18.8S/62.3E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Yep, upgraded from a zone of disturbed weather.

Technical advisory:

WTIO30 FMEE 121243

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/9/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2007/02/12 AT 1200 UTC :
11.7S / 69.6E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/13 00 UTC: 12.3S/69.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/02/13 12 UTC: 13.1S/68.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2007/02/14 00 UTC: 14.0S/67.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/02/14 12 UTC: 15.4S/66.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/02/15 00 UTC: 17.1S/64.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/02/15 12 UTC: 18.8S/62.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND STARTS TO ORGANIZE, WITH A RECENT CDO ABOVE
THE LLCC.
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT : SST OF 29 TO 30AoC,
WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT MONSOON AND
TRADE WINDS SURGES, STILL WEAK TO MODERATE, SHOULD ENHANCE DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY, SLOWLY AT THE BEGINNING, AS IT TRACK TOWARDS
MASCARENES ISLANDS.

[Chacor]

And satfixes:

971
TPXS10 KGWC 121245
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF DIEGO GARCIA
B. 12/1131Z (08)
C. 11.8S/0
D. 71.0E/8
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: D0.5/16HRS -12/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL FOR A DT OF 2.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: N/A.

BROWN/WEAVER

329
TPXS10 PGTW 121202

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF DIEGO GARCIA

B. 12/1130Z

C. 11.8S/0

D. 70.0E/7

E. SIX/MET7

F. T2.0/2.0/STT: S0.0/12HRS (12/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DEVELOPING CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A 2.0. DBO DT. PT SUPPORTS. RELOCATED .5
DEGREES BACK E. A 12/0848Z AMSRE PASS SUPPORTS
RELOCATION.

At the same time, the system just east of La Réunion (93S) is getting T1.0/1.0 from JTWC.

[Chacor]

Looks like per that track this sytem could be heading right for Mauritius and La Réunion! Also looks like Rodrigues will get its third consecutive cyclone (Class 2 cyclone warning for Dora and Class 4 for Enok).

[HurricaneBill]

Looks like per that track this sytem could be heading right for Mauritius and La Réunion! Also looks like Rodrigues will get its third consecutive cyclone (Class 2 cyclone warning for Dora and Class 4 for Enok).

What was the last storm to hit La Reunion and Mauritius? Was it Dina?

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132121Z FEB 07//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 66.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 66.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.1S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.3S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.0S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 66.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER; CONVECTIVE BANDING IS ALSO
FORMING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AS
LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL INFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP INTENSIFICATION BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 132121Z
FEB 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 132130).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z AND 151500Z.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like per that track this sytem could be heading right for Mauritius and La Réunion! Also looks like Rodrigues will get its third consecutive cyclone (Class 2 cyclone warning for Dora and Class 4 for Enok).

What was the last storm to hit La Reunion and Mauritius? Was it Dina?

The last major cyclone to pass close to those islands was Dina.

[HURAKAN]

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 09-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 14 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 15.4 SUD / 66.1 EST
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-SIX DEGRES UN EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1255 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 16 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 18S/63.2E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 20.1S/59.8E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 21.8S/55.8E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN JEUDI 15 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES

An upgrade to FAVIO is expected at anytime. Probably in the next update.

[P.K.]

Within the next 12 hours they expect to name Tropical Depression 09R yes.

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/15 06 UTC: 16.7S/64.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2007/02/15 18 UTC: 18.0S/63.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2007/02/16 06 UTC: 19.1S/61.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2007/02/16 18 UTC: 20.1S/59.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2007/02/17 06 UTC: 21.0S/57.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2007/02/17 18 UTC: 21.8S/55.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5-
THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN THANKS TO THE SSMI
MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AT 1426UTC.
METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
REBUILDED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER WITH A NEW CELL SINCE 1430UTC IN ITS
WESTERN PART BEEING ADDED TO THAT IN THE EASTERN ONE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND THE FORECASTED INTENSIFICATION
SEEMS
TO BEGIN.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT SLOW RATE FIRST, AND AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AFTERWARDS AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MASCARENES
ISLANDS.
MOST OF THE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECASTED
TRACK.=

[HURAKAN]

BULLETIN DU 15 FEVRIER A 04H30 LOCALES:

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE 09-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 996 HPA.
POSITION LE 15 FEVRIER A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 16.3 SUD / 65.2 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1120 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 18 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 19S/61.9E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 21.2S/57.9E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 22.2S/55E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN CE JEUDI 15 FEVRIER A 10H30 LOCALES


Pressure has decreased 2 hectopascals (millibars) and FAVIO should be here in the next update.

[Chacor]

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.4S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.0S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.4S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.6S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 64.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14S REMAINS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-
EAST. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
THE STORM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, INDUCING A GRADUAL WEST-
WARD TURN IN THE STORM TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM HAS INTRODUCED SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLOWLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
FILLS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DIMINISHING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ABUNDANT MOISTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE DATA,
AND SUFFICIENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION TO A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGI-
CAL RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//

[Chacor]

It was upgraded to tempête tropicale moderée Favio at 06Z.

[P.K.]

La Reunion now doing 3 hourly updates due to the threat to their area.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/9/20062007
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FAVIO)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/15 AT 1200 UTC :
18.7S / 62.2E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 090 SE: 150 SO: 090 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/16 00 UTC: 20.3S/60.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2007/02/16 12 UTC: 21.7S/57.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
36H: 2007/02/17 00 UTC: 22.7S/55.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/02/17 12 UTC: 23.3S/53.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/02/18 00 UTC: 23.5S/51.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/02/18 12 UTC: 23.7S/49.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5+
DESPITE RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT - WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD TRADE WINDS SURGE-, THE SYSTEM BARELY
INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER MONSOON FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED AND THIS COUD
EXPLAIN WHY FAVIO DOES NOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO S
LOWLY INTENSIFY.
NWP SIAGREE WITH INTENSIFICATION, BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK, ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.

[P.K.]

Max gusts of 111km/h at Pointe Canon which is a little lower than the 141km/h recorded for Enok. More precipitation this time though with 107mm falling at Plaines Corail when Enok's highest ob was 87mm at Citronelle.

After one three hourly update they seem to be back to six hourly although the warning level is the same.

AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE

AUCUN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.
AUCUN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

5 EME ET DERNIER BULLETIN DE CYCLONE EMIS A 22H10 CE 15 FEVRIER
2007.

LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FAVIO ETAIT A 22H00 SITUE A ENVIRON
200 KM PRESQUE 'A L'OUEST DE RODRIGUES SOIT AUTOUR DU POINT EN19.8
DEGRES SUD ET 61.3 DEGRES EST.

ELLE CONTINUE DE S'ELOGNER DE RODRIGUES A UNE VTESSE DE 20 KM.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LES RISQUES DES VENTS CYCLONIQUES N'EXISTENT
PAS. DONC AUCUN AVERTISSEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.

TOUTESFOIS DES BANDES ACTIVES ASSOCIES A FAVIO VONT CONTINUER A
INFLUENCER LE TEMPS A RODRIGUES PROVOQUANT DES GROSSES AVERSES PAR
MOMENTS A CARACTERE ORAGEUX ET DES VENTS DU NORD-EST DE 60 KM/H ET
DES RAFALES DE 100 KM/H.

LE VENT DEVIENDRA GRADUELLEMNENT MOINS FORT LE MATIN

LA MER SERA GROSSE.

LE PUBLIC EST FORTEMENT CONSEILLE DE RESTER A L'ABRI PENDANT LA
NUIT.

AUCUN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.
AUCUN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES

LES PLUS FORTES RAFALES ENREGISTRES SONT :
POINTE CANON : 111 KM/H
PLAINE CORAL : 91 KM/H
CITRONELLE :104 KM/H

PLUVIOMETRIE :
POINTE CANON : 93MM
PLAINES CORAIL : 107 MM

AUCUN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.
AUCUN AVERTISEMENT DE CYCLONE EST EN VIGUEUR A RODRIGUES.=

http://metservice.intnet.mu/wbulrodf.htm

[HURAKAN]

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FAVIO

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 990 HPA.
POSITION LE 16 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 23.2 SUD / 58.4 EST
(VINGT-TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 345 KM AU SUD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 27 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 25.6S/53.6E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 26.6S/49.2E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 26.9S/46.7E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETINA A 22H30



Looking kind of sick.

[Chacor]

I wonder if South Africa need to start preparing for a possible severe TS.