SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

southerngale · #41 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:22 am

Jagno... sorry to hear about the problem with your house. It sure makes my sidewalk problem look minor! I hope they are able to get it fixed soon, but unfortunately, we need more time than we've had without rain.

You have to pay taxes on FOOD over there?

And no... they will never finish the construction. Ever. Trust me.

southerngale · #42 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:29 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Latest SPC update. Virtually it is the same (as far as percentages), but the only real change is that the tornado 10% area has been shifted slightly east.

...which may look a little better for Houston, but unfortunately, leaves me right smack dab in the middle of the threat. I don't like tornadoes. Stay away.

Well, I might as well post this morning's Special Weather Statement for anyone who is interested.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-121800-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
403 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION LATER TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...WARM HUMID AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND STRONG
WIND SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE PARAMETERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TOMORROW. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

SHAMBURGER

#43 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 12:40 pm

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0131.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0016.html

Yankeegirl · #44 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 3:17 pm

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 17
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007

TORNADO WATCH 17 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC039-071-167-199-201-241-245-291-351-361-373-457-130500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0017.070212T2010Z-070213T0500Z/

TX
TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
HARDIN HARRIS JASPER
JEFFERSON LIBERTY NEWTON
ORANGE POLK TYLER

I dont even know where to post this!! Its really not winter weather...??

southerngale · #45 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 3:42 pm

We're in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Tornado Watch over here. I see some pretty strong looking thunderstorms to the west of here, heading in this direction, but I'm not sure if that's supposed to be our biggest threat. I thought that wasn't coming until later tonight. I've been really busy today and haven't had a chance to look at much.

Extremeweatherguy · #46 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 3:47 pm

Nothing even close to severe so far in my area today. I am beginning to wonder if NW Harris county will be spared from even a single crack of thunder today..

TexasSam · #47 Postby **TexasSam** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 3:50 pm

Dark, heavy rain at times, and starting to get some lightning & thunder...

southerngale · #48 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 4:00 pm

A lot of thunder and lightning here, but so far, just light to moderate rain.

southerngale · #49 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 4:11 pm

Someone in Kirbyville (about 12 miles south of Jasper) posted this on a local forum:

"About 2:15 this afternoon we had some hail the size of large grapes falling. Lasted long enough for the pasture and yard to look like a light snow had fallen. Scared the h**l out of my "girls" in the pasture."

Johnny · #50 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 4:31 pm

I guess Montgomery County is through with the storms?

JenBayles · #51 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 5:10 pm

I see Harris county (Houston) is included in the Tornado Watch, but suspect that really means the extreme east part of the county. Suspect we're pretty well done here on the west side? Anyone see any reason for further development to our west?

southerngale · #52 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 5:15 pm

I'm certainly no expert, Jen, but I don't think so. What kind of weather have you had?

So far, nothing even close to severe here....just good old-fashioned thunderstorms with quite a few of those loud claps of thunder that kinda shake the house. As long as there's nothing severe, I enjoy thunderstorms. But...we definitely could do without the rain for quite a while. Unfortunately, I can't change that, so if it's gonna rain anyway, give me some thunder to listen to. :wink:

Stratosphere747 · #53 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 5:27 pm

Looks like most of the energy is shifting North and East.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

HOWEVER...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD MOISTURE THAT IS RETURNING...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR TO THE NORTH/WEST OF INITIAL ONGOING STORMS...WHICH ARE
OCCURRING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHICH IS SPREADING THROUGH THE
SABINE VALLEY AREA. LIKELY BASED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH AT
LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS A BIT BETTER WITH
EXPECTED NEW ACTIVITY...AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES.

AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR STRENGTHEN...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY
ALSO INCREASE WITH WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY NEAR UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...MAIN SEVERE THREAT MAY
SHIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...WITH STRONGER
LARGE SCALE FORCING. UNLESS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MORE STRONGLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND A QUICKER RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OCCURS...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

southerngale · #54 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 5:34 pm

The site will be doing down shortly. Don't forget about the chatroom though. Here's the info: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=92921

Yankeegirl · #55 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 6:25 pm

What a boring day....

JenBayles · #56 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 7:10 pm

Yep... pretty darn boring. Just a few good showers this afternoon and no thunder. Better luck next time.

#57 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 8:46 pm

Yep, pretty much a bust for metro Houston. Just another gray, dreary day.

southerngale · #58 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 8:58 pm

Oh my goodness... what an incredible rain event! Over 2 hours of excessive rainfall, nonstop thunder and lightning, and some gusty winds, although no winds in the severe level. According to NWS radar estimates and a local KFDM met, I just got 6-7 inches of rain in about 2 hours. My front yard is under water and most of my backyard. With a lot of rain, I usually get what I call my standard "lake" in front of one end of the house and then again across a portion of my sidewalk, which I already posted, was overtaken by mud recently. lol I had put a big piece of plywood down to act as a bridge until it could dry out and I could fix it more permanently. The plywood is under water now too.
Anyway, the whole yard from one end to the other and almost all of the rest of it is solid water. I have this big ditch that runs along the side and back of my house and into Pine Island Bayou. It went over the banks and started backing up into my backyard. It didn't reach the house, but with it pouring down rain in buckets nonstop, kinda freaky watching all the water start surrounding you like that. It has let up now though, thank God, shifting off to the East.

I posted on a local board at 5:10pm about a Severe Thunderstorm Warning here and I lost electricity right after that...it came back on about 30 minutes or so ago. My weather alert was able to inform me that I was in a Flash Flood Warning though... like I needed them to tell me that.

Anyway, the deluges in SE Texas continue...

southerngale · #59 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:13 pm

Here's the NWS storm totals. 99% of this fell in about a 2 hour period.

KatDaddy · #60 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:25 pm

Hey SG I have been wondering about you this evening. Wow! What a massive rain producing line of storms. You have gotten hammered this evening with torrential rains. Its amazing to see the hourly totals add up.
Houston just missed this event.

SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

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