SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

[southerngale]

Hey Kat! Yeah, kinda crazy over here tonight. Now there's hail just east of Beaumont, between Vidor and Orange.

[southerngale]

The models have been showing the threat of severe weather next week for a few days now. SPC has picked it up on the Experimental 4-8 day Severe Thunderstorm Outlook. We're smack dab in the middle. And we could have yet another threat next weekend!

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST FRI FEB 16 2007

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...EAST TX/LA/SW MS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND DIG SEWD INTO THE
SWRN U.S. ON MONDAY WITH THE TROUGH ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS SOMETIME
ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH TIME FOR SOME
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WRN GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF
SHEAR AND MOISTURE PROFILES WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION ON DAY
5. THIS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AREA FROM EAST
TX EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS LA INTO SWRN MS.

A SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO DAY 6 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD
TOWARDS FLORIDA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO RESULT IN A SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND AN AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS THIS SCENARIO BECOMES
MORE CLEAR IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..BROYLES.. 02/16/2007

[NDG]

Yeah, looks like yet another threat of severe weather for that area, with a very strong subtropical jet for in that area along with a strong H85 jet developing, and iff moisture & warmer unstable air are present as indicated by models late Tuesday and Wed morning, look out!

[CajunMama]

Let's hope not NDG...tornadoes 2 miles to my south with the last storms.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Out ahead of this next severe threat, one things for sure..It feels great out there today! Highs in the 60s, full sunshine and a nice north breeze feels great after days and days of cold. This is actually the first day in a long time I think really feels like spring should. It is perfect IMO.

[jasons2k]

Unfortunately it looks like we may be the victim of the cap for the next couple of rounds. The much-hyped severe wx threats may be a dud for SE Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Unfortunately it looks like we may be the victim of the cap for the next couple of rounds. The much-hyped severe wx threats may be a dud for SE Texas.

I agree. We will probably have to wait until March before getting any real thunderstorm action.

However, I wouldn't rule out some possible isolated severe T-storm action this weekend if things can setup right. Most of the problems will likely be to our NE though.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I just hope this season isn't like the past several where it just skips us completely and jumps straight to OK/KS/NE and all we get is a cap....

[southerngale]

Well, less chance of rain is a good thing, IMO. I love thunderstorms, but geesh... enough is enough. We need to dry out. Pine Island Bayou is still above flood stage from the event last week. I think it has spent more time ABOVE flood stage than BELOW since early last summer.


I NEED SUNSHINE!!! No rain today, but we still can't get any sun. I'm ready for some of that boring weather I used to hate.

[Yankeegirl]

I hate the local weather people... One station says no rain till later in the week, one says maybe rain tomorrow and the other says maybe rain later in the week.... It sure looked like it wanted to rain at some points here today.. Its all up in the air, literally!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

This weekends event looks like it has more potential than it did yesterday.

[CajunMama]

Looks like scattered showers headed my way. I hope they hold off until about 4-5pm or until the parades end. Ah well, such is life. Headed out to the mardi gras parades.....

[jasons2k]

Yep, it's looking more promising for Saturday. Hopefully Lucy didn't move to the SPC hehe...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 PM CST TUE FEB 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE RADAR ECHOS CONTAINING RAIN THAT IS STILL NOT REACHING THE
GROUND HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT. WILL KEEP
20% POPS TONIGHT JUST IN CASE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPS ALONG THE
WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS ALOFT AND MANAGES TO REACH THE GROUND. SOME SEA
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND BAYS...AND IT
MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF FOR A COUPLE DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK AS THEY PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND PRESSURE
BEGIN TO FALL OUT WEST STARTING ON FRIDAY...OUR ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. MOS POPS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH
FOR THIS EVENT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES UP NORTH AND THE LOWEST VALUES DOWN SOUTH. MODELS
HAVE A STRONG CAP ERODING AS THE STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM SENDS A
DRYLINE INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS CAP CAN BREAK...
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE PER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.
THESE STORMS ALL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND WE DRY
OUT. PLAN ON UPDATING THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON TO MENTION A POSSIBLE
STORMY SATURDAY. 42

[Yankeegirl]

It rained here tonight... I didnt know what it was??

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest Day 3 Outlook (for Friday):



...GREAT PLAINS...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S.
FRIDAY CLOSING OFF OVER THE SCNTRL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...A VERY STRONG 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SRN PLAINS AND A MOIST AXIS WILL SET UP FROM NW TX
EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO WCNTRL KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC
DEWPOINTS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE 55 TO 58 F RANGE
ALLOWING FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST EAST OF A
WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE MOIST AXIS MAY REMAIN
CAPPED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY ACROSS WRN OK AND THE
LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TX. ONCE CONVECTION
INITIATES...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD QUICKLY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 60-70 KT. IN ADDITION...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AIDED BY VERY STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF AN
EJECTING 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SHOW CLASSIC LOADED-GUN TYPE SOUNDINGS WITH 0-3 KM SRH INCREASING TO
ABOVE 500 M2/S2 DURING THE EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KT WILL MAKE STRONG TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY
FRIDAY EVENING...SHOULD STRONG CAPPING BE OVERCOME. VERY LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.
A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
WCNTRL KS...CNTRL OK AND NRN TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AND SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR
AS FAR EAST AS ERN OK/ECNTRL KS/NERN TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO...A
FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR IN CNTRL NEB BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN THAT TAKES PLACE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS
FRIDAY. IF MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AN
UPGRADE MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

And here is the latest extended Outlook (for the weekend):



A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED-OFF LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SWING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DYNAMICS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY STRONG WHICH COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE ERN PLAINS EWD TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. A
SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY 4
PERIOD AND THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW
ECHOES. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND NEAR
THE UPPER-LOW CENTER ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN STILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING OF THE
SQUALL-LINE MAY OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR IN THE MORNING ON
SUNDAY...REGENERATION OF THE LINE SHOULD OCCUR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE TN AND
OH VALLEYS WITH LOCALLY CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER. A
SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN NRN AND CNTRL FL MONDAY WITH THE
THREAT AREA SHIFTING SWD ACROSS FL ON TUESDAY. WHETHER THIS OCCURS
IS DEPENDENT ON MANY FACTORS AND UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
HIGHER ATTM.

[jasons2k]

Of course things can change, but it's still looking like another one of those events that will skip right by us to the north. I noticed in Jeff's synopsis the big "IF" the cap breaks....and it seems like the last few seasons that usually means "No" for SE Texas. I'll be watching of course, but right now not getting my hopes up.

[KatDaddy]

I hope we are skipped this time around because someone is going to get a beating. Let us be dry-slotted and sunny Saturday. Many of us will be watching massive suppercells unfold across a very large part of the US.

[southerngale]

I agree, Kat. We've had waaaaay too much rain already and I'm skeered of tornadoes.

When the time comes when we need rain HAHAHAHAHAHAHA I'll take good old fashioned thunderstorms, without the severe touch to them.

Right now, I just need some dry weather and sunshine so the yard can dry and I can get some things done out there.

[Tennesseestorm]

Were forecasted to get possible severe weather on Sunday.

[jasons2k]

It's interesting the NWS expects the cap to erode with 60 pops now for IAH. I still think it's more like a 50/50 shot. I think it will come down to timing. If it kicks through in the AM we may not get any storms but if the system slows at all and goes through in the late PM then our chances go up.