Reunion: TC Gamede (15S); World Rainfall records established

[HURAKAN]

A cyclone could form in the next few days!!!

[P.K.]

This is now tropical disturbance 10R. TS strength forecast within 24 hours.

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 201223

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/10/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10

2.A POSITION 2007/02/20 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 74.8E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/21 00 UTC: 15.2S/73.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/02/21 12 UTC: 15.4S/71.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2007/02/22 00 UTC: 15.6S/68.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2007/02/22 12 UTC: 16.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/02/23 00 UTC: 16.4S/63.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/02/23 12 UTC: 17.0S/60.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
THE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ORGANIZING. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE ; GOOD LOW
LEVELS INFLOWS, GOOD UPEER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR, BUT
CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND INNER CORE STILL LACKS OF ORGANIZATION.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 78.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 75.6E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ALSO EVIDENT IN A 201038Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALY-
SIS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS UNDER
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS PROVIDING LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVED LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Next name: Gamede

[HURAKAN]

Favio and "Gamede."

[Chacor]

WTIO21 FMEE 201822
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 20/02/2007 A 1800 UTC.
NUMERO: 002/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 20/02/2007 A 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10 998 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.8S /
73.9E
(QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE-TREIZE DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1800
UTC
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, LOCALEMENT
JUSQU
'A 500 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD ET JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE
SUD.

GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE PRES DU CENTRE, ET
LOCALEMENT
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, JUSQU'A 150 MN DU CENTRE.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 21/02/2007 A 06 UTC:
15.6S / 71.7E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. SUR TERRE.
A 24H POUR LE 21/02/2007 A 18 UTC:
15.8S / 68.9E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LE SYSTEME S'ORGANISE RAPIDEMENT. IL DEVRAIT ADOPTER UNE TRAJECTOIRE
GENERALEMENT OUEST EN POURSUVANT REGULIEREMENT SON INTENSIFICATION .
LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT SITUES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, EN
RAISON
DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES.=

[Chacor]

Not quite sure where overland depression in 12 hr comes from, given the lack of landmass around TD10...

[HURAKAN]

"GAMEDE" ANYONE!!!

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful cyclone!!!

[Chacor]

WTIO21 FMEE 210609 CCA
*************** CORRECTIF ***************
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 21/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 004/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS DE COUP DE VENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 21/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (GAMEDE) 993 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2S /
70.8E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 13 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 250 A 300 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE.

COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20
MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN
AUTOUR DU
CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT A 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 21/02/2007 A 18 UTC:
14.4S / 69.0E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.
A 24H POUR LE 22/02/2007 A 06 UTC:
14.5S / 67.0E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LE SYSTEME "GAMEDE" S'ORGANISE AU SEIN D'UNE CIRCULATION ASSEZ VASTE.
IL
EST PREVU SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST A OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
S'INTENSIFIANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SONT SITUES
DANS
LE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS
SUBTROPICALES.=

[Coredesat]

805
TPXS10 PGTW 210611

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (NO NAME)
B. 21/0530Z
C. 14.2S/7
D. 70.5E/2
E. SIX/MET7
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (21/0530Z)
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .65 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL
FOR AN UNREP DT OF 3.0. PT IS ALSO UNREP AT 2.0 DBO MET
OF 2.5.

TORREY

[HURAKAN]

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GAMEDE

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 993 HPA.
POSITION LE 21 FEVRIER A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 14.2 SUD / 70.8 EST
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES HUIT EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1760 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 24 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 14.5S/67E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.2S/62.5E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.6S/58.6E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN A 16H30

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201951Z FEB 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 70.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 70.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.1S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.2S 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.5S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.9S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 70.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING
ON THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. TC 15S IS EX-
PECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSI-
FY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD EQUTORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES AN
AREA OF IMPROVED POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS WARNING SUPER-
SEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 201951Z FEB 07 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 202000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND
220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[HurricaneBill]

Could this be a threat to Madagascar?

[wxmann_91]

Both Gamede and 16S are pretty large. Does anybody think they could Fujiwhara at some point in their lives?

[HURAKAN]

Developing a strong CDO.

[HURAKAN]

Both Gamede and 16S are pretty large. Does anybody think they could Fujiwhara at some point in their lives?

16S is small compared to Gamede, and at this point they are at around 1100 miles apart, which means it's too far out for Fujiwara to occur. Also remember that for Fujiwara to occur it has to be an attraction between the circulations. Also, Gamede is moving faster than 16S which means that they are getting further apart.

[Chacor]

WTIO21 FMEE 220640
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 22/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 008/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS DE TEMPETE
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 22/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (GAMEDE) 980 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.3S / 65.0E
(QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE-CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 16 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU
'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD.

TEMPETE 50/55KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30MN AUTOUR
DU CENTRE.
COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR
DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 22/02/2007 A 18 UTC:
15.7S / 62.2E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL.
A 24H POUR LE 23/02/2007 A 06 UTC:
15.4S / 59.4E, VENT MAX = 75 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
GAMEDE S'EST ACCELERE EN S'INTENSIFIANT TRES RAPIDEMENT.
UNE VASTE CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE EST ASSOCIEE AU SYSTEME.
GAMEDE EST PREVU SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST EN
CONTINUANT DE S'INTENSIFIER.
DES VENTS FORTS SONT SITUES DANS LE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES ET DANS LE NORD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC
LE FLUX DE MOUSSON TRES BIEN ETABLI.

[Chacor]

WTXS32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZFEB2007//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/2201533FEB2007//
NARR/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.7S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.0S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.0S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.0S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GAMEDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT A GREATER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, TC 15S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR. TC 15S WILL INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE DUE TO MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//

Hurricane-strength (1-min) now.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 70 KTS!