DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST WED FEB 21 2007
VALID 241200Z - 011200Z
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED-OFF LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SWING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DYNAMICS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY STRONG WHICH COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE ERN PLAINS EWD TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. A
SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY 4
PERIOD AND THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW
ECHOES. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND NEAR
THE UPPER-LOW CENTER ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN STILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING OF THE
SQUALL-LINE MAY OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR IN THE MORNING ON
SUNDAY...REGENERATION OF THE LINE SHOULD OCCUR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE TN AND
OH VALLEYS WITH LOCALLY CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER. A
SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN NRN AND CNTRL FL MONDAY WITH THE
THREAT AREA SHIFTING SWD ACROSS FL ON TUESDAY. WHETHER THIS OCCURS
IS DEPENDENT ON MANY FACTORS AND UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
HIGHER ATTM.
Severe Weather for the South Feb 24-25...
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
When will the experimental outlook shift into 3-day range ? OK, i know the answer: 3 days before...
I mean, what´s the time NOAA updates the outlook ? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
I mean, what´s the time NOAA updates the outlook ? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
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southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
Bunkertor wrote:I mean, what´s the time NOAA updates the outlook ? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
I believe the Day 1, 2, and 3 outlooks are updated somewhere around midnight - 2 am cst and then again around 10am - noon cst.
The Experimental Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook is usually updated after Days 1 - 3, around 3 - 4am cst.. just once a day.
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Dean4Storms
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
From birmingham.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY
AND APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ENTER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN RACE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
EXIT THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY MID-DAY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CENTRAL. LATEST THOUGHTS ARE
THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN RACE EASTWARD. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES...LOW LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE UPPER FEATURES. WILL
EMPHASIZE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WEAKENING SQUALL LINE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN SECTIONS
LATER SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S...THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN MAINLY 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY
AND APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ENTER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN RACE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
EXIT THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY MID-DAY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND WILL INCLUDE CHANCE
POPS WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CENTRAL. LATEST THOUGHTS ARE
THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN SECTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN RACE EASTWARD. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES...LOW LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE UPPER FEATURES. WILL
EMPHASIZE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WEAKENING SQUALL LINE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN SECTIONS
LATER SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S...THEN MAINLY IN THE 60S SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S...THEN MAINLY 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
- Contact:
There's a potential threat for North Texas, happening mainly late Friday Night into Saturday.
NWS - Fort Worth wrote:THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WHEN A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DRY LINE SWEEPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY WITH STRONG WEST WINDS AND DRY AIR EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED GRASS FIRE DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
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What is wrong with the NOAA-Loop http://www.nws.noaa.gov/wwa_loop12.php
Last update is 23rd of Jan. 2007 . That cant´be OK...
Last update is 23rd of Jan. 2007 . That cant´be OK...
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Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
Theres a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms for KS,OK, TX area for tommrow, it looks this is going to be a monster system coming in and all the ingrediants are here for a tornado outbreak, it is quite possble we will se dozens of tornados over the plains and the southeast through sunday, but the big queston is how far east will it go? anyone think this energy will reach the east coast. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
SPC AC 222029
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CST THU FEB 22 2007
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX THROUGH THE EXTREME
ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND A PORTION OF SWRN KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE EAST
INTO THE SWRN U.S. FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LEAD
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL EJECT
NE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY
IMPULSE COULD EJECT NE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS WRN KS
THROUGH WRN TX AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EAST AND MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE FRIDAY NIGHT.
...CNTRL THROUGH SRN PLAINS...
MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL ADVECT
NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ADVECT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND OVERTAKE
THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX. NARROW AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST E OF DRYLINE. BUT...INSTABILITY
FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL KS THROUGH CNTRL OK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THE DAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AS THE MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EAST AND OVERLAPS THE
STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST IN WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
INITIATION POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE WHERE NARROW CORRIDOR OF
BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AND
POSSIBLY SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LEAD SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN KS. STORM MODE WOULD BE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN LATE AFTERNOON
INITIATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND AS THE PACIFIC FRONT
MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE. MUCAPE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR
WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE EWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM PARTS OF WRN TX THROUGH WRN
OK INTO WRN KS AND SPREAD EAST. INITIAL MODE MAY BE
SUPERCELLULAR...BUT WITH A GRADUAL EVOLUTION TO AN MCS CONTAINING
MIXED MODES INCLUDING LINES AND SUPERCELLS. THROUGH SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION
TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH GREATEST SEVERE COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN MODERATE RISK AREA
SPC AC 222029
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CST THU FEB 22 2007
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX THROUGH THE EXTREME
ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND A PORTION OF SWRN KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST WILL CONTINUE EAST
INTO THE SWRN U.S. FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LEAD
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL EJECT
NE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY
IMPULSE COULD EJECT NE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED ACROSS WRN KS
THROUGH WRN TX AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EAST AND MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE FRIDAY NIGHT.
...CNTRL THROUGH SRN PLAINS...
MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL ADVECT
NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ADVECT EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND OVERTAKE
THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX. NARROW AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST E OF DRYLINE. BUT...INSTABILITY
FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL KS THROUGH CNTRL OK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THE DAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AS THE MID LEVEL JET ADVANCES EAST AND OVERLAPS THE
STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST IN WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
INITIATION POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE WHERE NARROW CORRIDOR OF
BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE AND
POSSIBLY SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LEAD SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN KS. STORM MODE WOULD BE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN LATE AFTERNOON
INITIATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND AS THE PACIFIC FRONT
MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE. MUCAPE OVER THE WRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR
WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH.
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE EWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM PARTS OF WRN TX THROUGH WRN
OK INTO WRN KS AND SPREAD EAST. INITIAL MODE MAY BE
SUPERCELLULAR...BUT WITH A GRADUAL EVOLUTION TO AN MCS CONTAINING
MIXED MODES INCLUDING LINES AND SUPERCELLS. THROUGH SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION
TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH GREATEST SEVERE COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN MODERATE RISK AREA
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Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Weatherfreak14 wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:It's so hard to say what is going to happen to the east at this point. All I can say is that this is an extremely dangerous situation...
I agree, I have a bad feeling this year is going to be a bad severe weather season.
At this moment, I am in agreement with the SPC on the moderate risk, just perhaps somewhat more to the east...
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the SPC and NWS products.
This has the potential to become an extremely dangerous situation. A major outbreak is very possible both today and tomorrow across the south-central US. I went with a High Risk for both days. Significant tornadoes are very possible, along with powerful straight-line winds and very large hail. If the situation becomes any more serious, an upgrade to Extreme Risk could take place. The general areas are close in agreement with the SPC, although a bit more north on Day 2.
Day 1 prediction:
Day 2 prediction:
This has the potential to become an extremely dangerous situation. A major outbreak is very possible both today and tomorrow across the south-central US. I went with a High Risk for both days. Significant tornadoes are very possible, along with powerful straight-line winds and very large hail. If the situation becomes any more serious, an upgrade to Extreme Risk could take place. The general areas are close in agreement with the SPC, although a bit more north on Day 2.
Day 1 prediction:
Day 2 prediction:
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TexasStooge
- Category 5
- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
- Contact:
The SPC has ruled out a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for all of North Texas including DFW. It's gonna be a busy 36-hour period for us!!
NWS - Fort Worth wrote:THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS...BUT A WARM CAPPING
INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE. A THIN SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE. NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
THE SQUALL LINE PASSES.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD ALL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH.
THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR SATURDAY ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERMAN TO GROESBECK LINE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE WEST OF A SHERMAN...HILLSBORO...TO
LAMPASAS LINE AFTER 8 PM AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER NORTH TEXAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
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wow, I'm right on the edge of your ''high risk'' on day two.
CrazyC83 wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the SPC and NWS products.
This has the potential to become an extremely dangerous situation. A major outbreak is very possible both today and tomorrow across the south-central US. I went with a High Risk for both days. Significant tornadoes are very possible, along with powerful straight-line winds and very large hail. If the situation becomes any more serious, an upgrade to Extreme Risk could take place. The general areas are close in agreement with the SPC, although a bit more north on Day 2.
Day 1 prediction:
Day 2 prediction:
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NWS, memphis.
THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND DRIFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REALLY AFFECT THE MID SOUTH
REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE JET MAX OF 130
KNOTS WILL BISECT THE REGION. THE SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH
850 MB WINDS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 75 KNOTS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E TO NE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND DRIFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
PROGGED TO DEEPEN OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REALLY AFFECT THE MID SOUTH
REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE JET MAX OF 130
KNOTS WILL BISECT THE REGION. THE SHEAR VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH
850 MB WINDS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 75 KNOTS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E TO NE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
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CajunMama
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 10791
- Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:57 pm
- Location: 30.22N, 92.05W Lafayette, LA
The conservative Lake Charles NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement for tomorrow. I like the way they explained it in laymans terms. Guess I won't be going to watch college baseball 
http://tinyurl.com/2sv3pf
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007
LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-232215-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
445 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007
...VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST AFFECTS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP BRING WARM MOIST GULF AIR
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL BRING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CLASH OF DRIER AIR MEETING THE
MOIST GULF AIR WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY
FAST AND TURNING WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ALSO.
ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK ON THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
FORECASTS BEFORE VENTURING OUT FOR THEIR OUTDOOR PLANS ON
SATURDAY. ALSO...THOSE WITH A NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO WILL
WANT TO MAKE SURE TO PLACE IT IN THE ALERT MODE IN CASE ANY
WATCHES OR WARNING ARE ISSUED.
$$
RUA
http://tinyurl.com/2sv3pf
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