South-Central Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Humba (16S)

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South-Central Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Humba (16S)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 19, 2007 1:20 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:11pm WDT on Monday the 19th of February 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Tropical Low southwest of Sumatra
Location :near 10S 95E
about 315 kilometres [170 nautical miles]
northwest of Cocos Islands
Central Pressure :1006hPa

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Tuesday : low
Wednesday : high
Thursday : high

REMARKS - most likely movement of the low is towards the southwest, and at this
stage it is not expected to affect the Cocos Islands. The system is expected to
be west of 90E by Thursday.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

Image

It looks like a bee!!!
Last edited by HURAKAN on Fri Feb 23, 2007 8:31 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Feb 19, 2007 11:57 pm

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Tuesday the 20th of February 2007
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Tropical Low southwest of Sumatra
Location :near 9S 96E
about 370 kilometres [200 nautical miles]
north northwest of Cocos Islands
Central Pressure :1006hPa

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Wednesday : high
Thursday : high
Friday : high

REMARKS - most likely movement of the low is towards the west southwest, and at
this stage it is not expected to affect the Cocos Islands. The system is
expected to be west of 90E by Thursday.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

Image
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#3 Postby Coredesat » Tue Feb 20, 2007 1:06 am

Looks like it's coming together pretty quickly. This could be TCWC Perth's next cyclone if it keeps this up.
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Feb 20, 2007 12:22 pm

Image

Becoming better organized!!!
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:34 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 2344UTC 20 FEBRUARY 2007

Gale Warning FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 2300UTC a developing tropical low was located within 40 nautical miles of
Latitude nine decimal six degrees South [9.6S]
Longitude ninety one decimal three degrees East [91.3E]
Recent movement west southwest at 10 knots.
Maximum winds: 30 knots.
Central Pressure: 1004 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles of the
centre in the southern semicircle.

FORECAST
Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours
causing clockwise winds 25/33 knots increasing to 30/40 knots in the southern
semicircle, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 1100UTC 21 February: Within 40 nautical miles of ten decimal five South
eighty nine decimal four East
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 2300UTC 21 February: Within 70 nautical miles of eleven decimal six South
eighty six decimal nine East
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0500UTC 21 February 2007.

WEATHER PERTH

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#6 Postby Chacor » Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:05 am

Looks like we have 11R:

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:10S090E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0527UTC 21 FEBRUARY 2007

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0500UTC a developing tropical low was located within 45 nautical miles of
Latitude nine decimal seven degrees South [9.7S]
Longitude ninety decimal zero degrees East [90.0E]
Recent movement west southwest at 12 knots.
Maximum winds : 30 knots.
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre extending to within 200 nautical miles of
the centre in southern quadrants.


FORECAST
The low is currently producing clockwise winds 15/25 knots reaching 20/33 knots
in southern and western quadrants. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone
in the next 12 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 25/40 knots, reaching 30/45
knots in southern quadrants, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.





At 1700UTC 21 February: Within 60 nautical miles of 10.5 South 88.2 East
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0500UTC 22 February: Within 70 nautical miles of 11.3 South 85.3 East
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by La Reunion RSMC at 1200UTC 21 February 2007.

WEATHER PERTH
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#7 Postby Chacor » Wed Feb 21, 2007 2:10 am

Quite a bit of activity in this basin right now!

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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 21, 2007 4:48 am

Since it has moved into Meteo-France territory, if named it will be called "HUMBA"
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:19 pm

Image

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 11-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1001 HPA.
POSITION LE 21 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 10.5 SUD / 88.5 EST
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3675 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 16 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 12.1S/84.9E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.1S/81.6E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 18.5S/79.3E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:21 pm

Image

WTXS33 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210921Z FEB 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 88.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 88.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.4S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.3S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.2S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 14.3S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 87.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE STORM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 48, ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE STORM WILL
INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN
OPTIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
AFTER TAU 36, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 210921Z FEB 07
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 210930 ) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FAVIO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GAMEDE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:30 pm

Image

Very active day in the Indian tropics!
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#12 Postby Chacor » Wed Feb 21, 2007 3:41 pm

"Perturbation tropicale" = trop. disturbance, btw, not depression.
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 21, 2007 11:33 pm

Image

Not looking like it's organizing at this point. It seems Gamede's larger circulation is causing shear over 16S smaller circulation. Better atmospheric conditions should be established as Gamede westward and away from 16S.
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#14 Postby Chacor » Thu Feb 22, 2007 1:21 am

WTIO21 FMEE 220615
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 22/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 004/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 22/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 11 998 HPA
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.3S /
84.8E
(ONZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0600
UTC
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT
JUSQU'A 220 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.

GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN
AUTOUR
DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 22/02/2007 A 18 UTC:
12.3S / 83.2E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE.
A 24H POUR LE 23/02/2007 A 06 UTC:
13.6S / 81.5E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LES VENTS FORTS SONT SITUES LOIN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD PAR EFFET DE
GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES.
POUR LE MOMENT, UNE CONTRAINTE D'EST GENE L'ORGANISATION DE
L'ACTIVITE
ORAGEUSE QUI S'ORGANISE LENTEMENT A L'OUEST DU CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES.=
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:35 am

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 11-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 997 HPA.
POSITION LE 22 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 11.8 SUD / 83.9 EST
(ONZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 3160 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST A 18 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 13.5S/81.5E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 16S/79.7E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 18.7S/78.8E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

Image

Image

Looking much better now. "Humba" should be here in a few hours!!!
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:47 am

FEB 22 07 12:00
Image

FEB 22 07 14:00
Image

Significant change in two hours. Nicely building its CDO convection.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 22, 2007 1:21 pm

22/1430 UTC 11.4S 82.6E T3.0/3.0 16S -- South Indian Ocean

11.4S 82.6E T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS (16S)
.
PAST POSITIONS....11.0S 85.7E 22/0230Z IRNIGHT
9.8S 86.6E 21/1430Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND CENTER IS UNDER
CONVECTIVE BURST BUT WITH AT LEAST 7 TENTHS BANDING FOR A DT=3.0
WHICH AGREES WITH MET AND PT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM.
.
NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 22/2200Z.
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:14 pm

Image

Looks like a 50 - 60 mph storm. I don't know why Meteo-France has taken so long to name it.
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#19 Postby Chacor » Fri Feb 23, 2007 2:22 am

WTIO21 FMEE 230608
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 23/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.
NUMERO: 008/11 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS DE COUP DE VENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 23/02/2007 A 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (HUMBA) 995 HPA
POSITION: 12.9S / 81.7E
(DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0600 UTC
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT
LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 350 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

COUP DE VENT 35KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE PRES DU CENTRE.
GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN
AUTOUR
DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU' A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 23/02/2007 A 18 UTC:
14.0S / 80.9E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.
A 24H POUR LE 24/02/2007 A 06 UTC:
15.4S / 79.9E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP..

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LE SYSTEME NE BENEFICIE PAS ENCORE DE CONDITIONS OPTIMALES POUR SON
INTENSIFICATION, MAIS L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE CE SYSTEME EST PREVU
S'AMELIORER
EN ALTITUDE AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE DE DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION, IL
EST
DONC PREVU S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT LE LONG D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE
PARABOLIQUE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS LE SUD.=
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Feb 23, 2007 10:19 am

Image

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HUMBA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 987 HPA.
POSITION LE 23 FEVRIER A 16 HEURES LOCALES: 13.8 SUD / 81.4 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES QUATRE EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 2825 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST A 16 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 17S/79.5E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 19.8S/78E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 23.6S/77.4E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN CE VENDREDI 23 FEVRIER A 22H30 LOCALES
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