SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

KatDaddy · #81 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Feb 22, 2007 8:19 pm

Here is what I found and posted on the Ch11 weather board

Good ole Accuweather is placing Houston in a moderate to high risk of dangerous storms Saturday.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... &article=3

Its amazing how far off the mark many of their forcast turn out to be. When looking at the SPC forecast we see the real forecast.

KatDaddy · #82 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:07 pm

Yes I know Joe B does not make the severe weather forecasts over at Accu-weather.

Thanks to EWG who corrected me over at the CH11 board which was misinterpreted. When I re-read my post I thought I was stating Joe B made the severe weather forecast. Anyway classic confusion by the poster's thought..................mmmmmmm that would be me. This is why I try to proof read my post to make sure its stating what I think correctly.
Ok back to weather

#83 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 10:36 am

I hate to use the word impossible but it's pretty close to decipher what exactly will happen tomorrow. The dynamics just to our NE are the duck-n-cover variety while from near Houston to the SW the cap looks to hold pretty strong. We're right on the edge and it will be feast or famine. I still think it will all come down to timing. This setup looks like the type where just to my NE I'll be looking at some beautiful supercells outside but I'll be stuck high-and-dry.

KatDaddy · #84 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:18 am

These dangerous storms will come very close to Houston. I too will be looking NE Saturday jschlitz.

This will an incredible severe weather event starting later today.

Bunkertor · #85 Postby **Bunkertor** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:24 am

KatDaddy wrote:These dangerous storms will come very close to Houston. I too will be looking NE Saturday jschlitz.

This will an incredible severe weather event starting later today.

Later today ? What do you think is the start ?

Johnny · #86 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 12:04 pm

I have had zero time to look at weather so I've got a question. This evening I'm heading up to Centerville (Leon County) to stay the night. My wife and I are going to be looking at properties out that way tomorrow. Is it supposed to rock n roll in this area? If so, what's the time period? Thanks.

KatDaddy · #87 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 12:26 pm

Looks to begin around 4-5PM in Western OK

#88 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:34 pm

Johnny wrote:I have had zero time to look at weather so I've got a question. This evening I'm heading up to Centerville (Leon County) to stay the night. My wife and I are going to be looking at properties out that way tomorrow. Is it supposed to rock n roll in this area? If so, what's the time period? Thanks.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
345 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS...BUT A WARM CAPPING
INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE. A THIN SQUALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE. NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
THE SQUALL LINE PASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS SHOULD ALL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH.

THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR SATURDAY ALONG AND WEST OF A SHERMAN TO GROESBECK LINE.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE WEST OF A SHERMAN...HILLSBORO...TO
LAMPASAS LINE AFTER 8 PM AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER NORTH TEXAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

southerngale · #89 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:39 pm

The NWS in Lake Charles issued a Special Weather Statement for SE TX and SW LA.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-232215-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
445 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

...VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SATURDAY...

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE FIRST AFFECTS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP BRING WARM MOIST GULF AIR
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL BRING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CLASH OF DRIER AIR MEETING THE
MOIST GULF AIR WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY
FAST AND TURNING WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ALSO.

ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK ON THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
FORECASTS BEFORE VENTURING OUT FOR THEIR OUTDOOR PLANS ON
SATURDAY. ALSO...THOSE WITH A NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO WILL
WANT TO MAKE SURE TO PLACE IT IN THE ALERT MODE IN CASE ANY
WATCHES OR WARNING ARE ISSUED.

$$

RUA

Extremeweatherguy · #90 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 3:44 pm

As others have said, I think we will be right on the edge of this event. It could end up either being a big-time event or a whole lot of nothing for us. It all really depends on the timing, the cap and the other dynamics in place (or not in place) at the time.

At this point though, I do think our chances of severe weather look *slightly* better than they did this morning (due to what appears to be a slower system in the models..as well as the Day 2 SPC update), but still not as great as points east.

Extremeweatherguy · #91 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 9:31 pm

I think the NWS wind speeds are busting tonight! I was just outside and I can tell you for sure that some of those gusts were over 20mph. I do not have an official wind guage hooked up, but a few of those blasts of wind were rocking the pine trees heavily and sending the nearby palms into a bend for a few seconds. I would estimate, from past experience, that the winds are probably gusting to 25-30mph out there right now (at times).

Yankeegirl · #92 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 9:33 pm

IT is windy here too... I noticed that here too... they just started to pick up... and I agree the gusts are well over 20 mph....

southerngale · #93 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 10:09 pm

We've had gusts this evening in the mid to upper 20's, but the NWS did call for it in their Special Weather Statement issued this afternoon. I'm not sure if they thought it'd be this windy this early though. It made an otherwise comfortable evening pretty chilly at the ballpark. I should have brought a jacket and not worn flip-flops. lol

They continue to show the possibility for severe weather exists. I'm thinking that being on the western side of the Moderate Risk area, in the Slight area, it probably won't get very bad until it moves east of here, and of course to the north of here as well.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-241100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
356 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

...VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SATURDAY...

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE ROCKIES WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE FIRST AFFECTS OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO HELP BRING WARM MOIST GULF AIR
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL BRING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE CLASH OF
DRIER AIR MEETING THE MOIST GULF AIR WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY FAST AND TURNING WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.

ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK ON THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
FORECASTS BEFORE VENTURING OUT FOR THEIR OUTDOOR PLANS ON
SATURDAY. THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CAN
ALSO BE OBTAINED ON OUR WEB SITE (HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH).
THOSE WITH NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIOS WILL ALSO WANT TO MAKE
SURE TO PLACE IT IN THE ALERT MODE IN CASE ANY WATCHES OR WARNING
ARE ISSUED.

$$

25

Extremeweatherguy · #94 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Feb 23, 2007 10:10 pm

Looks like our "over 20mph" estimates were correct. Here are the 9pm airport reports:

Hooks = SE 15 G 25 MPH
IAH = SE 26 G 33 MPH
Hobby = SE 17 G 24 MPH
Conroe = SE 15 G 29 MPH

IAH is even sustained over 25mph! That is 10mph stronger than the forecast called for. :eek:

update: Within the last few minutes, the winds have actually died down quite a bit. They seem to come and go.

Extremeweatherguy · #95 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 24, 2007 9:02 am

what a total severe weather bust out there this morning. There are some light showers, but looking across the state, there is not anything even close to a supercell or squall line or severe storm out there right now. The closest anything even looks "interesting" is Oklahoma, and even there it is not severe. Seems like last night's moderate risk never really played out I guess..

hurrican19 · #96 Postby **hurrican19** » Sat Feb 24, 2007 9:49 am

Good! No one needs tornado's or damaging winds/hail!

#97 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:47 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:what a total severe weather bust out there this morning. There are some light showers, but looking across the state, there is not anything even close to a supercell or squall line or severe storm out there right now. The closest anything even looks "interesting" is Oklahoma, and even there it is not severe. Seems like last night's moderate risk never really played out I guess..

It's the wrong time of day still but things are picking-up.

#98 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Feb 24, 2007 11:25 am

It looks like the dryline may be a bit behind schedule - it's rougly along I-35 - I don't think it will make it to the US59 corridor by 3PM as suggested by the NWS HGX.

Extremeweatherguy · #99 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Feb 24, 2007 11:50 am

I noticed that the latest SPC day one outlook has the far left edge of the "slight risk" a bit further west than it was earlier. It now includes the Houston area...

May be this is due to the slower dry-line?

BTW: The winds are really starting to pick up out there today. Already we are getting a few gusts in the 25-30mph range. And I am also starting to see a few breaks in the clouds (even though it is raining).

#100 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Feb 24, 2007 12:25 pm

Check out this visible shot of the dryline to our west:

If that line busts through the cap, look out!

SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

Who is online