WTIO20 FMEE 231812
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2007 AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/02/2007 AT 1800 UTC.
PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HUMBA) 983 HPA
POSITION: 14.6S / 80.6E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING
LOCALLY UP TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/02/24 AT 06 UTC:
16.4S / 79.3E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2007/02/24 AT 18 UTC:
18.0S / 78.4E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
HUMBA SHOULD GO ON INTENSIFYING AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN
SOUTHWARDS.
South-Central Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Humba (16S)
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
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WTIO30 FMEE 241210
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/11/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HUMBA)
2.A POSITION 2007/02/24 AT 1200 UTC :
16.4S / 79.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 220
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 18.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 19.7S/78.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 21.7S/77.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 23.7S/77.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 26.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 27.5S/78.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0+.
HUMBA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE CENTRED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 THEN WEAKEN AS IT
UNDERGOES AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.=
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/11/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HUMBA)
2.A POSITION 2007/02/24 AT 1200 UTC :
16.4S / 79.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 220
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/25 00 UTC: 18.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/25 12 UTC: 19.7S/78.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 21.7S/77.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 23.7S/77.0E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 26.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 27.5S/78.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0+.
HUMBA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE CENTRED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 THEN WEAKEN AS IT
UNDERGOES AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.=
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WTIO20 FMEE 250013
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/02/2007
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 25/02/2007 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HUMBA) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 79.4E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20
NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60
NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/02/25 AT 12 UTC:
19.9S / 78.6E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2007/02/26 AT 00 UTC:
21.4S / 77.6E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
HUMBA HAS INTENSIFYED TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MINIMAL STAGE.
IT IS EXEPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND
ITS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
HUMBA SHOULD WEAKEN BEYOND.=
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/02/2007
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 25/02/2007 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HUMBA) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 79.4E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20
NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH SEAS TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60
NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2007/02/25 AT 12 UTC:
19.9S / 78.6E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2007/02/26 AT 00 UTC:
21.4S / 77.6E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
HUMBA HAS INTENSIFYED TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MINIMAL STAGE.
IT IS EXEPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND
ITS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
HUMBA SHOULD WEAKEN BEYOND.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 251210
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/11/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HUMBA)
2.A POSITION 2007/02/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 78.2E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 21.7S/77.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 23.2S/77.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 24.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 26.1S/77.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2007/02/28 00 UTC: 28.0S/77.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2007/02/28 12 UTC: 29.7S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5- ; CI=5.0-
AFTER A CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION AROUND "HUMBA" EYE LAST NIGHT,
THE LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS FACT IS CONFIRMED BY THE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY
(AQUA 0815Z, TRMM 0820Z AND NOAA18 0832Z) : ERODED CONVECTION NORTH OF
"HUMBA" AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION. "HUMBA" IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM AND SEEMS TO HAVE
DISORGANIZED RAPIDLY UNDER A NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWARDS IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND THUS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/11/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HUMBA)
2.A POSITION 2007/02/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 78.2E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 220 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 220
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/26 00 UTC: 21.7S/77.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/02/26 12 UTC: 23.2S/77.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/02/27 00 UTC: 24.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/02/27 12 UTC: 26.1S/77.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2007/02/28 00 UTC: 28.0S/77.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2007/02/28 12 UTC: 29.7S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5- ; CI=5.0-
AFTER A CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION AROUND "HUMBA" EYE LAST NIGHT,
THE LATEST ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS FACT IS CONFIRMED BY THE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY
(AQUA 0815Z, TRMM 0820Z AND NOAA18 0832Z) : ERODED CONVECTION NORTH OF
"HUMBA" AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION. "HUMBA" IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM AND SEEMS TO HAVE
DISORGANIZED RAPIDLY UNDER A NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWARDS IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND THUS TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.
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