Severe Weather for the South Feb 24-25...

[Bunkertor]

FROM 830 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CST.

What do you think ? will the cap stay or break ?

[CrazyC83]

http://www.koco.com - KOCO Oklahoma City

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0901 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES/WRN OK/TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27...

VALID 240301Z - 240430Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF TORNADO WATCH 27 -- WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED SHORTLY WITH TORNADO WATCH 29.

LATEST RADAR/SURFACE OBS REVEAL THAT THE DRYLINE IS NOW RETREATING
WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...AS SURFACE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. INITIAL SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE
MOVED NEWD INTO NWRN OK AND NNEWD INTO SWRN KS...BUT NEW STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS WHEELER/GRAY/DONLEY COUNTIES...NEAR RETREATING
DRYLINE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AND INTO WRN OK -- AND ACROSS NEWLY-ISSUED TORNADO WATCH
28 ACROSS WRN KS -- OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONGEST UVV ALOFT
SHIFTS ACROSS THIS REGION. COMBINATION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
INCREASINGLY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE/SUPERCELL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE
WITH TIME AS COLD FRONT MOVES EWD AND OVERTAKES THE RETREATING
DRYLINE LATER TONIGHT.

..GOSS.. 02/24/2007


ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

32920195 33980186 35330129 36310110 37010087 36989772
32919834

[CrazyC83]

This is a harrowing situation...nocturnal tornadoes are never good...

[CrazyC83]

Tornado Watch 29 (PDS?) coming out as far east as OKC...

[CrazyC83]

Tornado on the ground in Dodge City!

[HarlequinBoy]

I've been reading AFDS and Special Weather Statements for Saturday's potential outbreak over LA, AR, and MS.. and maybe TN, AL, MO, and FL.

Shreveport's lastest AFD sounded like they were pretty concerned, especially for areas east of the Shreveport area.. and Memphis put out a SWS about 40 minutes ago saying that tornadoes were possible over NW Mississippi and east central Arkansas between 4 and midnight tomorrow.

[HarlequinBoy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
455 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WOODRUFF COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 515 AM CST

* AT 452 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PATTERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PATTERSON AROUND 505 AM CST...
MCCRORY AROUND 510 AM CST...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK.

[Dionne]

NWS in Jackson, Mississippi is forecasting "widespread wind damage" and "very large hail" throughout saturday.

Reading the forecast is alarming. Man, I hope this forecast falls apart!

Sitting here waiting for sunrise sort of reminds me of the early morning hours before August 29 several years ago. Wondering if I should go gas up my work truck and load up the chainsaws.

[icicle]

yeah, it feels like somethings in the air..

[icicle]

FWIW, the SPC has moved the mod risk farther east and north..

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[CrazyC83]

For the first time in 2007, they issue a PDS watch:

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 30
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY INTENSE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 120KT MID LEVEL JET
MAX ROTATING EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. WITH IMPRESSIVE RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE UNDERWAY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. CURRENT INHIBITION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN NEWD
ACROSS WATCH AREA WITH MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION.
TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WATCH. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
THERMODYNAMICS...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...HALES


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 30
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY INTENSE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 120KT MID LEVEL JET
MAX ROTATING EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. WITH IMPRESSIVE RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE UNDERWAY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. CURRENT INHIBITION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN NEWD
ACROSS WATCH AREA WITH MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION.
TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WATCH. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
THERMODYNAMICS...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 241442
WOU0

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 30
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

TORNADO WATCH 30 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-011-013-019-023-025-027-029-033-039-041-043-045-047-051-
053-057-059-061-063-067-069-071-073-079-081-083-085-091-095-097-
099-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-139-141-145-147-
149-242200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0030.070224T1445Z-070224T2200Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAWFORD
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
LONOKE MILLER MONROE
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PERRY PIKE POLK
POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN
SEVIER UNION VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL


LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-073-081-111-119-242200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0030.070224T1445Z-070224T2200Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON
LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER
UNION WEBSTER


OKC061-077-079-089-135-242200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0030.070224T1445Z-070224T2200Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH


TXC037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-365-387-401-423-449-459-
499-242200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0030.070224T1445Z-070224T2200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOWIE CAMP CASS
CHEROKEE FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON MARION MORRIS
PANOLA RED RIVER RUSK
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
WOOD


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW0
WW 30 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 241445Z - 242200Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNE RUE/RUSSELLVILLE AR/ - 35S SHV/SHREVEPORT LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /69ESE RZC - 50S EIC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

LAT...LON 35709098 31939204 31939562 35709472

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.


Watch 30 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

Strong cell heading for Shreveport now.

[CrazyC83]

About to write my prediction. It is a doozy.

[CrazyC83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the SPC and NWS products.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION!!!

The first major outbreak of 2007 is developing even before noon, and it is a long steep climb from here. With plenty of daytime heating ahead and a screaming jet stream, I smell something really bad. Violent tornadoes and hurricane-force straight line winds are definitely possible, particularly in the High and Extreme risk areas. Hail isn't a great threat. This evening, I think it will squall back into a derecho.

Farther north over Kansas, low-topped supercells should allow scattered tornadoes to develop there as well. They won't be as strong, but the numbers warrant a Moderate risk there.

If you live in the areas of great risk, you should be caught up on your tornado safety precautions now. Such can save lives and help reduce property loss.

Categorial risks:


Tornado risk:


Wind risk:


(No hail risk map, in agreement with SPC)

[Janie2006]

At the present moment I think the immediate coastal areas of MS and AL will have to deal primarily with wind damage and hail, as well as the downpours of heavy rain. An isolated tornado (or 2 or 3) cannot be ruled out, but we're in far better shape in that regard than areas just to the north and west.

IOW, as far as a tornadic outbreak near the coast is concerned...I don't think the dynamics will be in place over the immediate area by the time the primary squall line reaches my stretch of the coast tonight. It's a whole different story just a bit to the north.

I've been watching this system develop and will update my plans acordingly...but anyone in the temporary FEMA trailers or mobile homes might consider finding safer ground this afternoon and overnight.

[Bunkertor]

NOAA Loop still shows one month old images. What´s wrong...?

[windnrain]

I usually dont follow severe weather outbreaks, because I'm not as versed in them as I am in the dynamics of hurricanes. Hoewever, this one directly effects me. I live in Ruston, Louisiana, about 60 miles east of Shreveport as the bird flies. There any chance that I could see some severe weather today? I must say, the winds are really picking up here. It reminds me of a hurricane squall... light rain, real heavy gusts of wind. We've hit 40 mph so far, I think.

[Bunkertor]

I usually dont follow severe weather outbreaks, because I'm not as versed in them as I am in the dynamics of hurricanes. Hoewever, this one directly effects me. I live in Ruston, Louisiana, about 60 miles east of Shreveport as the bird flies. There any chance that I could see some severe weather today? I must say, the winds are really picking up here. It reminds me of a hurricane squall... light rain, real heavy gusts of wind. We've hit 40 mph so far, I think.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/

[windnrain]

Thanks, Bunkertor. I've never seen that before. It's nice outside, the clouds are moving real fast. I only wish that my digital SLR was in today, I'd ge tto do some nice weather photography.