SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

[Extremeweatherguy]

Check out this visible shot of the dryline to our west:



If that line busts through the cap, look out!

wow. That is a pretty good shot of the dryline. Thanks for posting that!

One thing I cannot understand is why the NWS has decided to drop our rain chances to 20% today? This makes no sense given the current widepsread shower activity (I am under a moderate one right now) and the potential of the dryline busting through to our west. Going to be interesting to see how this whole situation evolves in the next few hours.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the satellite loop, it seems there is a definte swirl in the clouds ESE of Amarillo. However, the low pressure center is supposed to be up in Kansas (according to the HPC). Is another low forming? What could be going on there? Whatever it is, it sure looks like an nice, strong swirl, and it seems to want to follow an eventual path across the TX/OK border.

Also...wind reports around that swirl indicate gusts over 55mph are occuring. Though winds of that magnitude were expected in that area today, it is somewhat strange because you would think places further north (closer to the main low) would be seeing the same. However, areas further north seem to only be reporting 25-40mph gusts at this time.

[southerngale]

Well, I thought things were looking better for us this morning as far as severe weather chances go. NWS has us with a 70% chance of thunderstorms today, some of them possibly severe.

And they issued another Special Weather Statement this morning. We're in a Wind Advisory as well.

hmmm

I don't see it being that bad here, but we'll see.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-242215-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
506 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

...A VERY STRONG EARLY SPRINGLIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND DEEPEN
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN BRINGING IN AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH MAKING FOR CAUTIOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ON ROADWAYS AND FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING.

THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW TORNADOES
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE A CLASH OF MOIST...WARM UNSTABLE AIR
MEETS DRY COOLER AIR. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END.

ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK ON THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
FORECASTS BEFORE VENTURING OUT FOR THEIR OUTDOOR PLANS TODAY. THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED
ON OUR WEB SITE (HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH). THOSE WITH NOAA ALL
HAZARDS WEATHER RADIOS WILL ALSO WANT TO MAKE SURE TO PLACE IT IN
THE ALERT MODE IN CASE ANY WATCHES OR WARNING ARE ISSUED.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just looked outside after my last post, and I have sunshine right now! Very odd how quickly it came out too. If the sun can remain out long enough, then this may end up adding some extra fuel to that dryline.

[Janie2006]

Those winds at the 850 MB level are mixing down to the surface, so I think you can expect some pretty gusty winds today.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just looked outside after my last post, and I have sunshine right now! Very odd how quickly it came out too. If the sun can remain out long enough, then this may end up adding some extra fuel to that dryline.

update: since the sun has come out, I have warmed to 78-degrees so far.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Currently, it is partly sunny, warm (81-83 degrees), humid and breezy out there and the dryline still isn't here yet! Also, some of the clouds seem to be getting a bit more height to them (cap breaking?). I am starting to get more and more concerned that the dryline may try to fire before getting here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the cap may be breaking! Cumulous towers are forming to my west right now and a few seem to be getting taller. I think this very well may be the start to a few storms.

[jasons2k]

Well, credit to the NWS - the dryline is punching through now as scheduled, and it looks like the closest storm to make it is at the Montgomery/San Jacinto county border. I should have just gone with my gut feeling all along and not get excited this AM over nothing...maybe next time...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, credit to the NWS - the dryline is punching through now as scheduled, and it looks like the closest storm to make it is at the Montgomery/San Jacinto county border. I should have just gone with my gut feeling all along and not get excited this AM over nothing...maybe next time...

yeah, they nailed this one it seems. The dryline is here right now and all it has with it are some dark, puffy clouds. There looks to be a small storm in far NE Montgomery county, but that's about it.

[southerngale]

Well, I don't know about the dryline and cap, but the squall line has been strengthening as it gets closer to the Beaumont area. I don't think there's anything severe in them though. And there's still time for it to fall apart!

[jasons2k]

An enormous amount of tornado warnings in MS

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like our next Svr. threat is not that far off...



THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS/EURO AND ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WRN CONUS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THU.

THIS TROUGH RESULTS IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING MOIST
AXIS IN TX/OK ON WED...AND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON THU...AHEAD
OF AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING ALONG WITH VERY STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS/SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...THE DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
KS/MO AND THE OHIO VALLEY. A SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO PERSIST INTO FRI
MAR 2ND FROM THE FL PENINSULA NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.

[JenBayles]

Yep - it appears we're getting into our usual rounds of Spring storms for SE Texas. Always an "interesting" time of year.

I'm still hoping for a good Spring soaking for the entire state of Texas. Seeing all those red flag warnings out yesterday made me realize most of Texas is still experiencing drought conditions.

[southerngale]

We can skip the soaking for this part of Texas. Let the parts who need it have it...we certainly don't.

Btw, the squall line weakened last night before it got here and I didn't even hear a clap of thunder. However, the clouds at dusk were awesome looking. Really, really dark clouds. If I wasn't looking at a radar online and was outside, I would have thought I should take cover. lol

[jasons2k]

It's actually getting to the point we need some rain here - the soil is starting to crack

[JonathanBelles]

we need rain here and our cold front just went through with only a trace of rain and a whole lot of orange grass.

[CajunMama]

Today was absolutely beautiful here. Clear and sunny and the temp was so nice. Nice enough to go watch a college baseball game, weed the flower beds and boil crawfish. My dogs chased the ball so much they been sleeping hard for a few hours now. A great day to be outside.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like our severe threat has greatly diminished this morning. The SPC has moved the threat area much further north for the day 3 and day 4 outlook.

[jasons2k]

Looks like our severe threat has greatly diminished this morning. The SPC has moved the threat area much further north for the day 3 and day 4 outlook.

Yeah, unfortuntely this is starting to look like the last few seasons where all the excitement just skipped us to the north.