Tornado outbreak February 28-March 2, 20 dead, EF4 in Kansas

[CrazyC83]

Could March come in like a lion with severe weather? Thursday primarily, focal point the Mississippi Valley.

Models are split, some are saying bust and others screaming a major outbreak. I have so little confidence at this point that I can't really call this one...

[RedTiger]

SPC Day 3 is showing a slight risk with a maximum of 15% probabilities right now... nothing to get excited about yet, but definitely something to keep an eye on.

[rsdoug1981]

It looks like the ingredients will be present according to NWS Jackson:

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE FRONT TO OUR ARKANSAS COUNTIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWFA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY...AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...THIS IS OUR NEXT SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 1400-2400 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES ALSO LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 6-8 C/KM...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS DEW POINTS COME UP TO THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND 850MB THETA-E VALUES OF 32 -332K MOVE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AND PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA. THE 140-170KT UPPER JET WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA...AND IT WILL ALSO GIVE SOME DIVERGENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THERE WILL ALSO BE DECENT LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH AN 850MB JET OF 40-50KT. AND THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WARM SFC AIR OVER THE CWFA AS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

Plenty of moisture, sheer, and instability look to be present. If it happens, it looks like a Jackson to Birmingham event.

[RedTiger]

it looks like a Jackson to Birmingham event.

If so, then that will make for some great ABC 33/40 weather coverage

[rsdoug1981]

NWS Jackson sems to think that the 12z GFS has the right idea at this time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

[ncupsscweather]

According to the National Weather Service in Greenville/Spartanburg is saying that the best chance for Severe Weather will be in the Carolina's,Tennesse and Lower Ohio valley.

[CrazyC83]

The new Day 3 shows a 30-hatched area and a 15-hatched area...

[wx247]

I think this will likely be a Feb. 28/Mar. 1 outbreak. Dynamics don't look as good beyond Thursday.

[conestogo_flood]

I got a bad feeling about this...

[icicle]

This could get interesting.

[rsdoug1981]

From NWS Jackson morning AFD:

MARCH LOOKS TO COME IN LIKE A LION FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. COME THURSDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A SFC LOW MOVES NORTH FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI. THESE LOWS WILL BECOME NEARLY STACKED OVER WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY EVENING SENDING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA. WL START OFF WARM AND HUMID FOR THE BEGINNING OF MARCH. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S SURGING NORTH TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 60KTS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION SPURRED BY A STRONG WIND PROFILE WITH 40-50KT 850MB AND 70-80KT 500MB FLOW ALONG WITH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 130-150KT JET STREAK. ADEQUATE LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES OF 600-800J/KG INITIALLY LOOK TO SPELL THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN NAM/UKMET WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES AND PARISHES THURSDAY MORNING AND BE NEAR THE MS RIVER AND I-20 BY NOON AND EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THE WEST DURING THE MORNING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

As of now, the SPC forecast for a risk from the lower MS valley to the East Coast looks to be in agreement with the 12z GFS.

[baygirl_1]

This is from the NWS Mobile afternoon forecast discussion:

FOR WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS TOWARDS THE FA. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THIS PIECE OF ENERGY TO QUITE VIGOROUS...CREATING QUITE A BIT OF UPGLIDE SHOWERS ...WHICH ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MORE ENERGY FROM THE WEST COAST SYSTEM IS HOT ON ITS HEELS...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A WARM FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INLAND THURSDAY. DYNAMICS ARE ALSO MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AM CONCERNED THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS BETTER ALIGNED...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. AM NOT RAISING THE SEVERE WEATHER FLAGS AT THIS TIME...WITH GUIDANCE ADVERTISING DOOM AND GLOOM FOR PREVIOUS EVENTS...AND SEVERE WEATHER BEING LITTLE MORE THAN A FLASH IN THE PAN OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

As always-- watch and wait.

[CrazyC83]

Wow it suddenly looks more threatening!

[HarlequinBoy]

My area is in the hatched 30% area for both Wednesday and Thursday.

We already had a round of severe weather on February 24.. with some areas southwest of here hit hard by tornadoes.

It looks to be interesting Wednesday and Thursday for sure.

[Gorky]

SPC have kept it at slight for today.. with a note that an upgrade to moderate may be likely. I'd expect the Day2 be a moderate risk, and would not be overly surprised if tomorrow becomes the first High risk of the year (dependant on how today plays out )

[CrazyC83]

Day 2 is indeed a MDT. About to write my own prediction.

[CrazyC83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the SPC and NWS products.

I will admit, this was not an easy forecast, as everything from a bust to a historic outbreak could happen. However, confidence is higher that an outbreak will happen. This has the potential to become an extremely dangerous situation.

For Day 1, I basically went with the SPC except I indeed went with 15-hatched for tornadoes, hence a Moderate Risk. The bulk of the intense weather should be concentrated in the evening and overnight hours. Tornadoes - some strong - and large hail are the main threats.



I deviated from the SPC for Day 2, thinking the maximum risk will be farther north. Nonetheless, I have enough confidence to go with a High Risk. If confidence increases, an Extreme Risk may become necessary and the High Risk may need to be expanded. The main threats are all the severe elements - strong to violent tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. If you live in that area, you should be well-prepared on severe weather drills.

[Brent]

I deviated from the SPC for Day 2, thinking the maximum risk will be farther north. Nonetheless, I have enough confidence to go with a High Risk. If confidence increases, an Extreme Risk may become necessary and the High Risk may need to be expanded. The main threats are all the severe elements - strong to violent tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds. If you live in that area, you should be well-prepared on severe weather drills.

[Weatherfreak14]

mmm, SPC issued moderate risk for Easteren MS, AL, And GA. I think a high mite be needed cuz this looks very dangerous. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[icicle]

CrazyC83, once again, i'm in your 'high risk' area. It seems dixie alley *could* be active.