La Nina to bring heat, hurricanes to eastern seaboard

[GalvestonDuck]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,255340,00.html

[Blown Away]

It had to be done!

[Evil Jeremy]

Just what we need.

[HURAKAN]

That's a bold statement. It's too early to say how serious the impact of this possible Niña is going to have on the hurricane season, which is still 3 months away.

[GeneratorPower]

Mark Sudduth brought up the point that last year they said "La Nina is Here" in February. True. But the current neutral conditions with a forecast La Nina is more serious.

The trend is definately towards a cool neutral or a La Nina so this is very important for the hurricane season. Remember this is an active pattern.

[Aslkahuna]

Presuming of course that we don't get the same degree of anomalous patterns with the Niña that we did with the Niño which turned out to be a less common dry one for SoCA and the SW US proving that we have a lot to learn about the effects of the ENSO phases still.

Steve

[AussieMark]

its quite a bold statement considering that a lot of the models have it moderating by Aug-Oct timeframe with the anomalities being about -0.2 or -0.3 or something.

Every El Nino and La Nina are unique in their own way.

Talking personally in Australia

the 1997/98 el nino was one of the strongest of the last century yet rainfall was about normal or just below average

the 2002/03 was a moderate event and we had near record low rainfall over much of the east coast

the 2006/07 was a weak-moderate event and we had near record low rainfall over much of the southern part of Australia

in 2000 which was a La Nina year we actually had a dry year and near record average temperatures which is not normally associated with La Nina events normally its cool and wet

[HURAKAN]

its quite a bold statement considering that a lot of the models have it moderating by Aug-Oct timeframe with the anomalities being about -0.2 or -0.3 or something.

Every El Nino and La Nina are unique in their own way.

Talking personally in Australia

the 1997/98 el nino was one of the strongest of the last century yet rainfall was about normal or just below average

the 2002/03 was a moderate event and we had near record low rainfall over much of the east coast

the 2006/07 was a weak-moderate event and we had near record low rainfall over much of the southern part of Australia

in 2000 which was a La Nina year we actually had a dry year and near record average temperatures which is not normally associated with La Nina events normally its cool and wet

I agree. People, especially News Stations, (extra^10) especially Fox News, just here the words Niño and Niña and they just jump to conclusions. It's amazing how much coverage does every wave that comes out of Africa takes during the hurricane season. It seems just hearing the word "tropical" makes people jump out of their seats.

Lets wait a month or so to see how everything develops and then we could arrive to more logical decisions.

[Scorpion]

Great news for us enthusiasts

[MGC]

If it don't scare us then its not news. I thought the EC was the big bulls eye last season???......MGC

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wasn't the last stong La Nina not such a harsh Hurricane season? If I recall the SST's were cooler then normal that year which cut the number of storms. I hope so at least.

[AussieMark]

1998, 1999, 2000 were La Nina Hurricane seasons


1998 and 1999 were particularly savage seasons

[Ptarmigan]

El Nino and La Nina are not the only factors that play a role in hurricane formation and climate. There is also North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation, Antartica Oscillation, Madsen-Julian Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and other oscillations I have not mentioned. Some El Nino years had active hurricane seasons, like 1969.

[LSU2001]

I don't know if this wikipedia entry is correct but it refers to 1969 as a La Nina year not El Nino. Someone please comment.
Thanks,
Tim

The 1969 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 1969, and lasted until November 30, 1969. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The season was among the most active on record, with 18 tropical cyclones, 12 of which reached hurricane status; the likely reason for the increased activity was a strong La Niña which also affected the 1969 Pacific hurricane and Pacific typhoon seasons. Despite the high activity, most of the storms either stayed at sea or made landfall with minimal strength.

The most notable storm of the season was Hurricane Camille, the seventh-strongest storm recorded in the Atlantic basin and the second-strongest to make landfall in the United States. Camille made landfall near Bay St. Louis, Mississippi as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, killing 256 and causing $1.4 billion ($9.2 billion in 2005 dollars) in property damage.

Other notable storms include Hurricane Francelia, which caused serious flooding in Belize that killed 100; Hurricane Inga, which lasted almost 25 days and was at the time the second longest-lasting hurricane; and Hurricane Martha, which caused flooding and landslides in Costa Rica and Panama.


Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1969_Atlantic_hurricane_season

[AussieMark]

1969 was indeed a El Nino year altho weak event

SOI was very low that year

Jan: -13.5
Feb: -6.9
Mar: 1.8
Apr: -8.8
May: -6.6
Jun: -0.6
Jul: -6.9
Aug: -4.4
Sep: -10.6
Oct: -11.7
Nov: -0.1
Dec: 3.7

then the SST anomalities also were el nino like

these are the 3 month averages

Dec68-Feb69: (+1.0)
Jan69-Mar69: (+1.0)
Feb69-Apr69: (+0.9)
Mar69-May69: (+0.7)
Apr69-Jun69: (+0.6)
May69-Jul69: (+0.4)
Jun69-Aug69: (+0.4)
Jul69-Sep69: (+0.4)
Aug69-Oct69: (+0.6)
Sep69-Nov69: (+0.7)
Oct69-Dec69: (+0.7)
Nov69-Jan69: (+0.6)

[Ptarmigan]

From Japan Meteorological Agency Data on El Nino.

1969
January: 6
February: 6
March: 7
April: 7
May: 7
June: 6
July: 7
August: 6
September: 7
October: 8
November: 9
December: 8
Average: 7

Link

[Jim Hughes]

its quite a bold statement considering that a lot of the models have it moderating by Aug-Oct timeframe with the anomalities being about -0.2 or -0.3 or something.

Every El Nino and La Nina are unique in their own way.

Talking personally in Australia

the 1997/98 el nino was one of the strongest of the last century yet rainfall was about normal or just below average

the 2002/03 was a moderate event and we had near record low rainfall over much of the east coast

the 2006/07 was a weak-moderate event and we had near record low rainfall over much of the southern part of Australia

in 2000 which was a La Nina year we actually had a dry year and near record average temperatures which is not normally associated with La Nina events normally its cool and wet

AussieMark,

Your right . Every El Nino- La Nina is different but you also have to look at all the variables that are brought to the table. This is why I laughed at some recent comments about the USA's west coast (California) this past winter, and it's lack of rainfall, which somehow made some people think that this was a non El Nino winter.

In your case the El Nino 3.0 region is a big player. Strong negative departures mean more rain and positive departures mean less rain. So the NOAA guideline, which is the 3.4 Region , is not the area for you to only look at. I hope this helps.