Tornado outbreak February 28-March 2, 20 dead, EF4 in Kansas

[JonathanBelles]

when in the day should I be hit worst? When does the next official convective outlook come out?

[CrazyC83]

when in the day should I be hit worst? When does the next official convective outlook come out?

Next one is 0100Z (8 pm Eastern/7 pm Central).

You should miss the worst of it I think. Maybe late tomorrow night you might get some strong (perhaps isolated severe) wind and perhaps hail, but probably nothing as destructive as further north.

[JonathanBelles]

when in the day should I be hit worst? When does the next official convective outlook come out?

Next one is 0100Z (8 pm Eastern/7 pm Central).

You should miss the worst of it I think. Maybe late tomorrow night, but probably nothing as destructive as further north.

thanks

thats what i was afraid of. THat late in the daywe may have enough sunlight that may enhance the storms, our local met calls it self destructive sunshine.

[Brent]

If I was to leave on a chase for this storm? Where should I go in the northern parts of this system?

If you have to ask that question you probably have no business chasing a storm and putting yourself in the middle of it. Just my $0.02 in case you are actually serious about chasing stuff.

I agree, you'd have to go to AT LEAST Central IL/IN(and maybe further south), which I would think is too far away for you anyway.

[Brent]

Tomorrow is where everything goes wild. This is the most extreme prediction I have ever made on Day 2. It is likely we will see swarm after swarm of severe weather of all types and could be one day to remember. There is a chance (not a guarantee by any means) this could approach April 3, 1974. Violent tornadoes, very large hail and destructive straight-line winds are all possible. The maximum risk appears to be in the "Dixie Alley" region from the Missouri Bootheel to central Georgia, but a significant risk exists for most of the southern United States up into the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. Having a weather radio handy can be a lifesaver, and other preparations should be taken now!

Yikes. A little extreme don't ya think? I mean, I agree this will be a major outbreak, but as bad as the Super Outbreak? I doubt it.

[Cyclenall]

Is this going to be like the March 2006 tornado outbreak? That one caused over 100 confirmed tornadoes. It's going to be a big day tomorrow and Friday since the same system is going to give the Great Lakes region a messy winter storm.

By the way, I highly doubt this will be the feared Super Outbreak II, but this could produce the first F5 (or EF5) tornado in like 6-7 years.

[CrazyC83]

First watch issued:

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 36
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 510
PM UNTIL 200 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
EMPORIA KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG RETREATING MOISTURE BOUNDARY IN
SE KS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE SWD ALONG
THE DRYLINE INTO NE OK. THE ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH SUPERCELLS.
BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
AND STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...THOMPSON


SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 36
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 510
PM UNTIL 200 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
EMPORIA KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF TULSA OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG RETREATING MOISTURE BOUNDARY IN
SE KS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...WITH MORE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE SWD ALONG
THE DRYLINE INTO NE OK. THE ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH SUPERCELLS.
BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
AND STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...THOMPSON


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 282304
WOU6

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 36
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

TORNADO WATCH 36 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-049-059-073-099-111-125-127-133-
139-205-207-010800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0036.070228T2310Z-070301T0800Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY
COWLEY ELK FRANKLIN
GREENWOOD LABETTE LYON
MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEOSHO
OSAGE WILSON WOODSON


OKC035-037-097-105-113-117-131-143-145-147-010800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0036.070228T2310Z-070301T0800Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CRAIG CREEK MAYES
NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE
ROGERS TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON


ATTN...WFO...ICT...TSA...TOP...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW6
WW 36 TORNADO KS OK 282310Z - 010800Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25NNE EMP/EMPORIA KS/ - 20S TUL/TULSA OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /75WNW BUM - 18SSW TUL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

LAT...LON 38659508 35909498 35909676 38659693

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.


Watch 36 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

And our first warnings:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC073-205-207-010015-
/O.NEW.KICT.SV.W.0008.070228T2315Z-070301T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
515 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
WESTERN WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 615 PM CST.

* AT 512 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PIEDMONT...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EUREKA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
BATESVILLE...CLIMAX...COYVILLE...EUREKA...FALL RIVER...HAMILTON...
PIEDMONT...SEVERY...THRALL...TORONTO...VIRGIL...YATES CENTER.

SAFETY INFORMATION FOR THIS WARNING FOLLOWS:

SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE OR OTHER ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT...WHILE LIGHTNING IS IN THE
AREA.


A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

LAT...LON 3760 9652 3759 9581 3800 9564 3817 9635

$$

SCHRECK

[snoopj]

I literally sat here watching my set of apps as that set of cells formed (looks like 2 cores, since I'm getting two distinct hail cores out of the storm).

--snoopj

[6SpeedTA95]

The cap is beginning to weaken here and storms are firing in Kansas fairly quick. I'd expect building to continue along the dryline over the next 90 to 120 mins

[6SpeedTA95]

I literally sat here watching my set of apps as that set of cells formed (looks like 2 cores, since I'm getting two distinct hail cores out of the storm).

--snoopj

That cell in Howard County is damn impressive.

[CrazyC83]

I literally sat here watching my set of apps as that set of cells formed (looks like 2 cores, since I'm getting two distinct hail cores out of the storm).

--snoopj

That cell in Howard County is damn impressive.

Already golf ball size hail in it.

[CrazyC83]

New cells popping up like firecrackers north and northeast of Wichita.

[6SpeedTA95]

New cells popping up like firecrackers north and northeast of Wichita.

The ones just to the north of wichita are in a bit of an awkward position, they're to the west of the dryline but just ahead of the cold front...

[baygirl_1]

Is anyone else having trouble with the Southern Region NWS websites? I keep getting the error message "cannot find server..." Sometimes I can open the homepages for Mobile or Birmingham, but cannot get any other pages to open. Is it just me? Or are others having this problem?

[6SpeedTA95]

Is anyone else having trouble with the Southern Region NWS websites? I keep getting the error message "cannot find server..." Sometimes I can open the homepages for Mobile or Birmingham, but cannot get any other pages to open. Is it just me? Or are others having this problem?

NWS has been horrible this year, I dunno why but the site has been crappy for several months. You're not the only one having issues.

[CrazyC83]

Cells also exploding in KC Metro now...

[Brent]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL KS INTO W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 010011Z - 010145Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING E/NE OF
WW 36 AND AN ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE.

RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SW-NE AXIS FROM COFFEY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
E-CNTRL KS TO CASS AND JACKSON COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL MO. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
OCCURRING ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
NWD. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...HOWEVER AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPES MAY
APPROACH 1000 J/KG BETWEEN 01/04-06Z.

CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM LATHROP MO SWWD INTO ERN KS
INDICATE SHEAR PROFILES QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS NWD EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM POTENTIAL. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOCATIONS NEAR AND N OF THE
MO RIVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO STABLE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO
SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY WITH SWD EXTENT.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.kctv.com/Global/story.asp?S=2611457 Nasty looking cells in Kansas City

As for the watch, it is overdue and new Watch 37 (not the existing 36) should be a PDS watch IMO.

[CrazyC83]

Look out KC! New warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC091-121-MOC037-095-010100-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0002.070301T0014Z-070301T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 700 PM CST

* AT 609 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES WEST OF BELTON TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WELLSVILLE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BELTON BY 620 PM CST.
GRANDVIEW BY 625 PM CST.
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEE'S SUMMIT BY 645 PM CST.
RAYTOWN...LEAWOOD...LAKE TAPAWINGO AND PRAIRIE VILLAGE BY 700 PM
CST.

THE TOWNS OF STANLEY...CLARE...UNITY VILLAGE AND JOHNSON CO ARPT ARE
ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3869 9505 3849 9505 3864 9467 3901 9421
3904 9457

$$

BOOKBINDER