Tornado outbreak February 28-March 2, 20 dead, EF4 in Kansas

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snoopj
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#161 Postby snoopj » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:33 pm

WWUS53 KEAX 010424
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1023 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

MOC101-010445-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070301T0445Z/
JOHNSON MO-
1023 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1045 PM CST...

AT 1020 PM CST...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO JUST SOUTH OF
KINGSVILLE AND HAD SINCE LIFTED BACK TO A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS
TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST HOLDEN...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.


THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CENTERVIEW BY 1030 PM CST.
WARRENSBURG BY 1035 PM CST.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3875 9401 3867 9399 3872 9360 3885 9366

$$

BOOKBINDER
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#162 Postby Bunkertor » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:35 pm

Which player are you using ? My WMP hasn´t got right codecs...
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#163 Postby snoopj » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:43 pm

WFUS53 KEAX 010442
TOREAX
MOC101-159-010530-
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0010.070301T0441Z-070301T0530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1041 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 1130 PM CST

* AT 1040 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WARRENSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.


* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
KNOB NOSTER BY 1050 PM CST.
HOUSTONIA BY 1110 PM CST.

WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE IS NOT IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC
CIRCULATION.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3885 9380 3874 9375 3880 9320 3894 9335

$$

BOOKBINDER
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#164 Postby snoopj » Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:45 pm

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#165 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 01, 2007 1:20 am

DAY 1 HIGH RISK:

..PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF STATES/TENNESSEE VALLEY

WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR MORE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MAY COMMENCE AS EARLY AS THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS ALABAMA DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...SUPERCELLS ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BY ACCOMPANIED BY A RELATIVELY HIGH RISK OF TORNADOES. LARGE...CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A STRONG UPPER JET WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW LONG-LIVED/LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG OR VIOLENT TORNADOES.

Image
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#166 Postby Gorky » Thu Mar 01, 2007 1:27 am

Yikes! I guess that puts you right in the middle of things, Brent :eek:
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#167 Postby icicle » Thu Mar 01, 2007 2:49 am

I'm in the high risk area as well. Its exciting and at the same time nerve wracking...
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#168 Postby icicle » Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:24 am

some crazy stuff here. a severe thunderstorm is just off to my west, and at the same time, you can see the moon peeking out from behind the cloudtops. the lightning in it is something to behold.
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#169 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Mar 01, 2007 6:38 am

Last year we were able to listen to "storm spotter live"-spotters giving reports via packet radio. Is this service down or did they move ?
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#170 Postby simplykristi » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:07 am

I have never seen a day and night like that in Feb. here ever! It was sunny and 72 and then boom severe thunderstorms yesterday. Last night we had tornadoes, wind, hail, and flooding in the area.

Kristi
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#171 Postby icicle » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:10 am

got some stuff trying to form in pontotoc county in northeast ms, but it may be a little soon yet.
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#172 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:57 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the SPC and NWS products.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION!!!

The Kansas City area showed us what could happen in this and how fast tornadic supercells could form, even though it was capped to the south. Nonetheless, the conditions are more favorable for explosive development today and this could lead to a massive tornado outbreak. In fact, tornadoes have already developed and it is not even 7 am in the heartland. It is a very long and steep climb from here...this could be a deadly and destructive outbreak if everyone is not well prepared.

Image

As you can see, the threat area is enormous, with ground zero being northern MS and AL and into southwest TN. However, the threat is real for much of the South and into the Ohio Valley. Violent tornadoes, damaging hail and hurricane force, destructive straight-line winds are all likely. Tell everyone to wake up now and be ready, since this is an all-day event! Don't let go of the NOAA Weather Radios either! Such can be a lifesaver! This is the greatest threat in a long time!
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#173 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR ACROSS NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011254Z - 011400Z

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE POSSIBLE LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MS AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TORNADO WATCH COORDINATION ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL COMMENCE
SHORTLY.

POWERFUL LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENT FLOW OF OVER 100KT
FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST ATOP INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR FROM THE NRN GULF COAST NWD ACROSS MS/AL...AND MUCH OF TN.
GIVEN SPEED OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
INTENSIFYING VERTICAL MOTION...A LARGE PDS WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FAMILIES OF LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL STORMS. TORNADO
THREAT...CURRENTLY WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN MO...AR...AND LA...WILL
SHIFT STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 03/01/2007


ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34839098 35429090 36188884 35488598 33478533 32648761
32789101

Probably will be a PDS watch, being in the HIGH area.
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#174 Postby snoopj » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:03 am

We've already got Tornado Warnings popping off in Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas. Yikes!
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#175 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:03 am

CrazyC83 wrote:MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR ACROSS NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011254Z - 011400Z

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE POSSIBLE LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MS AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TORNADO WATCH COORDINATION ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL COMMENCE
SHORTLY.

POWERFUL LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENT FLOW OF OVER 100KT
FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST ATOP INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR FROM THE NRN GULF COAST NWD ACROSS MS/AL...AND MUCH OF TN.
GIVEN SPEED OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
INTENSIFYING VERTICAL MOTION...A LARGE PDS WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LFC WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FAMILIES OF LONG-TRACK SUPERCELL STORMS. TORNADO
THREAT...CURRENTLY WELL ESTABLISHED OVER SRN MO...AR...AND LA...WILL
SHIFT STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 03/01/2007


ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34839098 35429090 36188884 35488598 33478533 32648761
32789101

Probably will be a PDS watch, being in the HIGH area.


I feel sick.

:sick:
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#176 Postby snoopj » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:04 am

WFUS53 KSGF 011300
TORSGF
MOC203-011400-
/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0023.070301T1300Z-070301T1400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SHANNON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST.

* AT 658 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFIRMED TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS OR NEAR PEACE
VALLEY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BIRCH TREE BY 725 AM CST.
WINONA BY 740 AM CST.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

LAT...LON 3741 9165 3741 9119 3733 9120 3725 9114
3720 9114 3715 9107 3716 9105 3710 9104
3709 9120 3707 9123 3689 9124 3688 9166

$$

GAGAN
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#177 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:07 am

High risk expanded ESE.

Image
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#178 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:14 am

North/central fl also in moderate risk
Watch Out, Looks Very Bad In Arkansas and Alabama and Missouri!!!!
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#179 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:15 am

aI think byt 5pm the high risk will be move more east toward the carolinas with the storms.
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#180 Postby Brent » Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:32 am

Huge PDS Tornado Watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 44
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ALABAMA
PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 730 AM UNTIL 600
PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 140 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT
CAMPBELL KENTUCKY TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 40...WW 41...WW 42...WW
43...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
WATCH AREA WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL POSE THE
RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS.
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