February 28-March 2 Storm: Snowfall Estimates

[donsutherland1]

During the last storm, largely on account of the dynamics that led to much more snow in the DCA-IAD-BWI area, I raised my snowfall estimates for the Northeast above my initial figures. Those figures proved too high. With the upcoming event, it appears likely that warmer air will punch northward into Upstate New York and into northern New Enland. A changeover to sleet and/or rain is possible even into eastern Maine and southern and central Vermont and New Hampshire. At the same time, I am reasonably confident that the storm's dynamics will not be sufficient to overcome the warmth.

Meanwhile, Minnesota could experience an all-out blizzard.

My initial estimates for the upcoming storm are as follows:

Albany: 2"-5"
Boston: 1"-3"
Burlington: 8"-16"
Caribou: 6"-12"
Concord: 6"-12"
Minneapolis: 12"-24"
Portland: 5"-10"
Toronto: 3"-7" (7.6 cm.-17.8 cm.)
Worcester: 2"-5"

[dean]

i'm gonna go with 12-16 inches for us here in the Twin Cities.

[tropicana]

The Toronto region is under a FREEZING RAIN WARNING , needless to say, this storm is gonna impact Southern Ontario pretty hard, with snow, ice and freezing rain, along with gusty Easterly winds.

-justin-

[donsutherland1]

Few changes are necessary at this time. I am increasingly concerned that Portland could be thumped harder than what I was first thinking. As a result, I will increase the figures for that city. Minneapolis still looks good, as I'm thinking MSP will come out with 19" +/- a few inches by the time the storm winds down.

Revised Estimates:

Albany: 2"-5"
Boston: 1"-3"
Burlington: 8"-16"
Caribou: 6"-12"
Concord: 6"-12"
Minneapolis: 12"-24"
Portland: 6"-12"
Toronto: 3"-7" (7.6 cm.-17.8 cm.) -- watch out for ice, as well
Worcester: 2"-5"

[donsutherland1]

Justin,

I strongly agree with you. Once the snow ends, this could prove to be a quite serious ice storm.

[donsutherland1]

Final Estimates:

Albany: 2"-5"
Boston: 1"-3"
Burlington: 6"-12"
Caribou: 7"-14"
Concord: 6"-12"
Minneapolis: 12"-24"
Portland: 7"-14"
Toronto: 3"-7" (7.6 cm.-17.8 cm.)
Worcester: 2"-5"

[tropicana]

Toronto has been hard hit. The estimates look bang-on for this city. Major major mess outside. Thunder and lightning accompanied the initial burst of snow this afternoon (the 2nd time in 1 week that portions of Toronto reported thundersnow, a fairly rare event).

[cpdaman]

at 830 pm i see an amazing wall of moisture poised to move into new jersey and then new england around midnight

i think there will be a fast burst of snow in much of new england overnite tonite with 3-5 inches possible in southern newengland before the change over around 7 am and then i think the change over will occur rather fast northward with the exception of southern new hamshire extreme north east mass and most of maine where i think they will have a good snowstorm and then to sleet and then probably a brief period of rain (but after the main slug of moisture is passed.

[Stephanie]

If it was cold enough, NJ and PA would be hit with heavy snow! They're calling for 1 - 2 inches of rain in and around the Philadelphia area.

[Category 5]

If it was cold enough, NJ and PA would be hit with heavy snow! They're calling for 1 - 2 inches of rain in and around the Philadelphia area.

Go figure

[dean]

we got about 15 inches of wet, heavy snow here. looks like the snow is pretty much over now, maybe 1-2 inches through the rest of the day.