Tornado outbreak February 28-March 2, 20 dead, EF4 in Kansas

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wbug1

#341 Postby wbug1 » Fri Mar 02, 2007 5:24 pm

I'd expect high EF4, or even EF5. I've seen photos with vehicles that have been thrown through the air. The pickup in the wall comes to mind, or the car on the football field. Based on photos I've seen, i.e, Andrew, you need 160-170 mph to roll or flip a normal mid-size car. To pick a car off the ground is more like 210+ mph. EF5 rating is 3 sec 200 mph+ gust.

The Americus tornado looks similar. Cars thrown. EF4-EF5.


See the audio slide show at CNN.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WEATHER/03/ ... index.html

Some pics:

http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs. ... s=Itemnr=6
http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs. ... =Itemnr=24

cars piled and building damaged

http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs. ... s=Itemnr=2
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#342 Postby Calasanjy » Fri Mar 02, 2007 5:53 pm

Just want to inform everyone that in regard to the Enterprise tornado, I have heard that it has now been officially rated EF4. I assume that this is the first tornado to be rated an EF4.
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#343 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:24 pm

I've heard a whole lot of stuff that I am waiting for NWS Tallahassee to come back. I haven't seen many pictures, but the school appeared to suffer EF3 damage, so any higher rating would come from elsewhere.
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#344 Postby Brent » Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:44 pm

2 more tornadoes confirmed in Georgia in FFC's coverage area.

TORNADO 6...
IN JONES COUNTY...FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF GRAY TO ONE MILE SOUTH OF
JAMES. RATED EF1. LENGTH 3 MILES AND MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 150 YARDS.
HEAVIEST DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG HIGHWAY 49.

TORNADO 7...
IN WARREN COUNTY...FROM 5 MILES EAST OF WARRENTON TO 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THOMSON. RATED EF2. THE DAMAGE PATH TRACKED ALONG
HIGHWAY 12 INTO THOMSON...THEN HIGHWAY 105 TO INTERSTATE 20. LENGTH
15 MILES AND MAXIMUM WIDTH ONE QUARTER MILE WIDE. THREE INJURIES
OCCURRED WITH THIS TORNADO.

I think the Enterprise tornado may have been an EF4 as well. The aerial video today has been absolutely horrible. Same goes for the Newton GA one that killed 6(also in TLH's coverage area). I've heard all 6 were within 300 feet of each other.
Last edited by Brent on Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:53 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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wbug1

#345 Postby wbug1 » Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:45 pm

Just the cars flipped, thrown and mangled beside the school is enough to give an EF4 rating. The old F3 fujita would have corresponded to max 207 mph, but the new scale has EF4 going to 3 sec gust of 200 mph. You can see from the photo of the pickup, that the top is crumpled, which means it had some force when it was thrown into the building.

Enterprise school parking lot, mangled cars:

http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs. ... =Itemnr=18

Crumpled red pickup thrown into building:

http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs. ... s=Itemnr=5

Every single tree in pic debranched or snapped trunk, or even snapped at base, Enterprise:

http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs. ... s=Itemnr=5
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#346 Postby Brent » Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:44 pm

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
740 PM CDT FRI MAR 2 2007

...STORM SURVEY RESULTS ACROSS NORTHERN WILCOX COUNTY INDICATES THAT
A LONG TRACKED EF-3 TORNADO MOVED THROUGH THE MILLERS FERRY AREA...

THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN AROUND 1230 PM CST (MARCH 1ST) AT
STATE HIGHWAY 28 NEAR MILLERS FERRY DAM. THE TORNADO THEN TRACKED
NORTHEAST ACROSS WILLIAM "BILL" DANNELLY RESERVOIR...MOVING ASHORE
ON SAND ISLAND AT SAND ISLAND DRIVE. THIS IS WHERE MOST OF SEVERE
DAMAGE OCCURRED...WITH NUMEROUS HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

ONE RESIDENT HAD ARRIVED AT HIS HOME TO EAT LUNCH WHEN THE TORNADO
HIT AND WAS KILLED WHEN HIS MANUFACTURED HOME WAS DESTROYED.
NEIGHBORS NEXT DOOR HAD SOUGHT REFUGE IN AN UNDERGROUND STORM
SHELTER OUTSIDE THE HOUSE SECONDS BEFORE THE TORNADO HIT. ALL THEY
HEARD WAS DEBRIS HITTING THE DOOR OF THE SHELTER. WHEN THEY EMERGED
THEY SAW THAT THEIR HOME WAS DESTROYED. THERE WERE ALSO TWO REPORTED
INJURIES. MOST OF THE HOMES ARE VACATION HOMES WITH PART-TIME
RESIDENTS. IF THE TORNADO HAD STRUCK ON THE WEEKEND WHEN MORE PEOPLE
WERE PRESENT...THE LOSS OF LIFE WOULD LIKELY HAD BEEN GREATER.

IN ALL AROUND 40 HOMES WERE DESTROYED OR DAMAGED ON SAND ISLAND
DRIVE...WITH SOME OF THE DEBRIS SCATTERED UP TO TWO MILES
DOWNSTREAM. THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SPARSELY POPULATED TERRITORIES.

THE HIGHEST WIND SPEED OF THE TORNADO WAS ESTIMATED AT 142 MPH...
WHICH RATES IT AS AN EF-3 ON THE NEW ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. THE
LENGTH OF THE TRACK WAS 15.6 MILES LONG...WITH THE WIDEST WIDTH OF
ABOUT 500 YARDS.
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MiamiensisWx

#347 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:00 pm

In my personal opinion the Linn County (Missouri) supercell that transversed eastern Kansas into Missouri on February 28 during the start of the outbreak may have been an EF4. The couplet and associated rotation with the cell was extremely impressive as it moved east and north of Mound City in sparsely populated country. Given the elevated instability and dynamics of the nearby surface warm front providing good lift it appears likely the tornado (reported as a multi-vortex wedge) was at least EF4 intensity. At least two homes were destroyed but there hasn't been any subsequent information on the classification of this long-tracked tornadic and tornado-warned cyclic cell. The maintenance of the impressive structure as it crossed eastern Kansas and through Missouri was very impressive (as evidenced by the previous radar images of the cell posted by snoopj). Has there been any recent detailed information on any damage from this cell and it's classification?

On the original scale, it is likely this cell (the multi-vortex wedge reported) would have been assigned F-5 intensity.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:18 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#348 Postby snoopj » Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:05 pm

Pleasant Hill has listed a few of the later tornado tracks at EF1/EF0. According to this image: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/eax/Feb28 ... ackmap.png

Looks like the Mound City track is still being classified.
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#349 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:06 pm

If I recall correctly, ratings higher than F3/EF3 have to be approved by NWS national survey teams, not local offices...last March 12 and September 22 both had initial F3's upgraded to F4's later...
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#350 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:08 pm

snoopj wrote:Pleasant Hill has listed a few of the later tornado tracks at EF1/EF0. According to this image: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/Image/eax/Feb28 ... ackmap.png

Looks like the Mound City track is still being classified.


"Still investigating" likely means they are at least considering an EF4 or EF5 on that one...
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#351 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:03 pm

In all, the outbreak killed 20 people.

1 in Missouri

9 in Georgia

10 in Alabama (including 8 students at Enterprise High School)

As for any EF5 tornadoes, I don't think any will get classified. I think the NWS will be very picky when it comes to EF5 classifications. I think for an EF5 classification, they'll want to see damage like in Jarrell or Moore.
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#352 Postby snoopj » Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:09 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:As for any EF5 tornadoes, I don't think any will get classified. I think the NWS will be very picky when it comes to EF5 classifications. I think for an EF5 classification, they'll want to see damage like in Jarrell or Moore.


Doesn't surprise me there. Considering a lot of the stuff I read pretty much pointed to those F5 examples on why the original Fujita scale was flawed when comparing it to other tornadoes.
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#353 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:54 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:In my personal opinion the Linn County (Missouri) supercell that transversed eastern Kansas into Missouri on February 28 during the start of the outbreak may have been an EF4. The couplet and associated rotation with the cell was extremely impressive as it moved east and north of Mound City in sparsely populated country. Given the elevated instability and dynamics of the nearby surface warm front providing good lift it appears likely the tornado (reported as a multi-vortex wedge) was at least EF4 intensity. At least two homes were destroyed but there hasn't been any subsequent information on the classification of this long-tracked tornadic and tornado-warned cyclic cell. The maintenance of the impressive structure as it crossed eastern Kansas and through Missouri was very impressive (as evidenced by the previous radar images of the cell posted by snoopj). Has there been any recent detailed information on any damage from this cell and it's classification?

On the original scale, it is likely this cell (the multi-vortex wedge reported) would have been assigned F-5 intensity.


Linn County is in Kansas, but I agree that it was probably an EF4. NWS Pleasant Hill, MO has already made a page on the event. The rating will be announced probably tomorrow.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_ ... 7&source=0
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#354 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:56 pm

Hey! I like the quick reply...

BTW, I have counted up the tornado warnings through the event and also the number of tornadoes confirmed per WFO. These will be updated periodically.

WFO's and their tornado counts in alphabetical order:

BMX (Birmingham, AL)... 51
CAE (Columbia, SC)... 3
EAX (Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO)... 10
FFC (Peachtree City, GA)... 29
HUN (Huntsville, AL)... 4
ICT (Wichita, KS)... 2
ILX (Lincoln, IL)... 1
JAN (Jackson, MS)... 12
JAX (Jacksonville, FL)... 5
LIX (New Orleans, LA)... 4
LSX (St. Louis, MO)... 5
LZK (Little Rock, AR)... 6
MEG (Memphis, TN)... 3
MHX (Newport/Morehead City, NC)... 4
MOB (Mobile, AL)... 21
PAH (Paducah, KY)... 4
SGF (Springfield, MO)... 24
TAE (Tallahassee, FL)... 18
TOP (Topeka, KS)... 5
TSA (Tulsa, OK)... 4


WFO's and their tornado counts in order from most to least tornado warnings:

BMX (Birmingham, AL)... 51
FFC (Peachtree City, GA)... 29
SGF (Springfield, MO)... 24
MOB (Mobile, AL)... 21
TAE (Tallahassee, FL)... 18
JAN (Jackson, MS)... 12
EAX (Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO)... 10
LZK (Little Rock, AR)... 6
JAX (Jacksonville, FL)... 5
LSX (St. Louis, MO)... 5
TOP (Topeka, KS)... 5
HUN (Huntsville, AL)... 4
LIX (New Orleans, LA)... 4
MHX (Newport/Morehead City, NC)... 4
PAH (Paducah, KY)... 4
TSA (Tulsa, OK)... 4
CAE (Columbia, SC)... 3
MEG (Memphis, TN)... 3
ICT (Wichita, KS)... 2
ILX (Lincoln, IL)... 1


TOTAL: 215 tornado warnings issued through the course of the event.



So far confirmed tornadoes...

1. By WFO

8 at FFC (1 EF0, 2 EF1, 3 EF2, 2 EF3)
8 at BMX (1 EF0, 6 EF1, 1 EF2)
2 at PAH (1 EF0, 1 EF1)
1 at ILX (1 EF0)
1 at JAX (1 EF0)
1 at JAN (1 EF1)
1 at SGF (1 EF3)
1 at MOB (1 EF3)
1 at CAE (1 EF2)
1 at TAE (1 EF3).

from the 2-28 event
1 at TWX (1 EF1)
1 at LSX (1 EF0)


2. By EF rating

EF0 ||||| (5)
EF1 |||||||||| (10)
EF2 ||||| (5)
EF3 ||||| (5)

for 2-28 event
EF0 | (1)
EF1 | (1)

Updated: 0358Z March 3.
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#355 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Mar 02, 2007 11:58 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Linn County is in Kansas, but I agree that it was probably an EF4. NWS Pleasant Hill, MO has already made a page on the event. The rating will be announced probably tomorrow.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_ ... 7&source=0


I initially stated the county was in Kansas, but on the map released by Pleasant Hill NWS it appeared to be a Missouri county.
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#356 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Mar 03, 2007 12:10 am

wxmann_91 wrote:Linn County is in Kansas, but I agree that it was probably an EF4. NWS Pleasant Hill, MO has already made a page on the event. The rating will be announced probably tomorrow.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_ ... 7&source=0


Maybe EF5? That was wiped clean and the basement opened up...
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#357 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Mar 03, 2007 12:15 am

one of the most destructive imo in the last 3 years, but I dont think anything higher then ef4
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#358 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Mar 03, 2007 12:40 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Linn County is in Kansas, but I agree that it was probably an EF4. NWS Pleasant Hill, MO has already made a page on the event. The rating will be announced probably tomorrow.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_ ... 7&source=0


Maybe EF5? That was wiped clean and the basement opened up...


EF5's are an endangered species. I think the highest DOD for a single family home like that is an EF4. Not sure. Of course, if that home was of shoddy construction, the best it can receive is a low-end EF3.
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#359 Postby Gorky » Sat Mar 03, 2007 3:21 am

You are correct. A single family residence clocks in at 198mph if completely destroyed and if it is well built. If poorly built it can only hit EF3 on the scale. To see an EF5 these days you are going to have to have brick/cement/steel buildings involved as wood framed houses have the ability to be destroyed by high end EF4's and so there would be nothing left to determine how much faster the tornado was.

There may be certain cases where they may rate a tornado an EF5 based on other incidental damage which isn't listed as a D.I. such as train carriages or cars being thrown some distance, ground and asphalt scouring, or destruction of overpasses but I'm unsure of if they have a system for incorporating that sort of damage. Just how far does a car would need to be thrown on the EF scale to indicate EF5 winds for instance? This means it's likely going to be the rare tornados which hit more heavily populated areas which have the chance to be rated EF5's as most farms just won't stand up to an Ef4.
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#360 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Mar 03, 2007 10:18 am

wxmann_91 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Linn County is in Kansas, but I agree that it was probably an EF4. NWS Pleasant Hill, MO has already made a page on the event. The rating will be announced probably tomorrow.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_ ... 7&source=0


Maybe EF5? That was wiped clean and the basement opened up...


EF5's are an endangered species. I think the highest DOD for a single family home like that is an EF4. Not sure. Of course, if that home was of shoddy construction, the best it can receive is a low-end EF3.


The EF5 must be reserved for flattening large buildings...
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