EL Nino/ La Nina

[boca]

I don't think this past El Nino behaved like a typical Nino would behave being in Florida. In the southern 2/3 of the state the drought index is extremely high exception the panhandle. On a side note the California and the desert SW didn't get dumped on like they normally do this passed winter. Now with the possiblity of La Nina emerging into a moderate or strong event what type of affect will it have on the hurricane season.
1. Position of the Bermuda high
2. SST in the Atlantic, GOM,and Caribbean Sea.
3. How will shear be like also the TUTT and ULL factor
4. Our favorite SAL.

I guess when we get into latter April into May some of these questions will have answers.Right now its a waiting game.

[573storms]

Good points Boca. Anyone know when the first official forecast is issued?

[boca]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=92830

That was for February, but I think they issue the first one in January. I'm not quite sure though.

[AussieMark]

just remember each El Nino and La Nina event is unique in its own way.

Speaking personally tho this El Nino was a very typical el nino across Australia where we had severe drought over the winter and Spring in particular

June-November

Here is a Map I have for April 1 - December 31 to show how bad the rainfall did get here

[boca]

http://www.fs.fed.us/land/wfas/kbdi.gif

Look at South Florida after an El Nino. Very dry.

[Ptarmigan]

Good point Boca. Some El Nino years I remember were not always wet and cool. Some La Nina years were not always dry and warm.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I can't stand droughts...my palm trees leaves are drying up and dying because we have not had much rain where I live this year.
But yea to me this year seems dry and warm
I just wish we could get some good rain to feed my thirsty palm trees.

[WeatherEmperor]

I can't stand droughts...my palm trees leaves are drying up and dying because we have not had much rain where I live this year.
But yea to me this year seems dry and warm
I just wish we could get some good rain to feed my thirsty palm trees.

Yeah I had this kind of problem as well. I dont know if this will work very well for you, but what i used to do is every now and then, I take out my garden hose and just spray water to my palm trees and hope that it would be enough to keep them happy.

<RICKY>

[Ptarmigan]

I can't stand droughts...my palm trees leaves are drying up and dying because we have not had much rain where I live this year.
But yea to me this year seems dry and warm
I just wish we could get some good rain to feed my thirsty palm trees.

I hate droughts too. We have a serious drought here in Texas.

[boca]

I think if we truely have a La Nina an upper level high will build in at the upper and mid layers probably caping any convection that starts to form while broiling in the 90's come May. I believe this might be the case for Texas eastward into the SE with our friend the SE ridge, just my theory but I hope I'm wrong.

[Ptarmigan]

I think if we truely have a La Nina an upper level high will build in at the upper and mid layers probably caping any convection that starts to form while broiling in the 90's come May. I believe this might be the case for Texas eastward into the SE with our friend the SE ridge, just my theory but I hope I'm wrong.

I wonder how and why those upper level high builds in the atmosphere?

[boca]

Here's another story in the Sun Sentenel about the upcoming La Nina.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... -hurricane

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh gosh...this reminds me of 1999-2000 when it was so dry all of my grass turned brown and all the small ponds around my area
dried up.

I hope we get a cold front that stalls and brings us a good steady, soaking rain here in Florida.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Well, I have noticed that the long range forecast is pointing to warmer than normal temps over much of the U.S. while precip could go either way. Let's hope for Florida and Texas it goes to the wet side. Here is the link for the summer months: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... index.html

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Hey! It think I just used to be a disturbance - now I'm a depression! I'm very happy to be a depression.

[HURAKAN]

Hey! It think I just used to be a disturbance - now I'm a depression! I'm very happy to be a depression.

With this Niña thing going you will be a tropical storm real soon!!!

[kba981]

with the drought here in south floida. I have a flash back to 05. I see the weather pattern much like it was back then. If that holds true then the east coast will be in for a wild ride IMO.

[Grease Monkey]

From what I remember, 2005 was actually a pretty wet season when I lived in the central palm beach county area. I don't know about march or april, but I remember by May it was raining like crazy and I heard comments from friends/family listening to the news reports like this season is not going to be as active as 2004 because usually when it rains so much, it's less active (maybe they misinterpreted the news) etc . Ofcourse all the reports changed by around the end of June.