** Will 2007 Hurricane Season Be A Bust Like 2006 Was**

[Lifesgud2]

Any thoughts?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I doubt it. If La Nina develops as expected, then it should be a pretty active season.


^^This image gives you a good idea at how La Nina seasons compare to neutral and El nino seasons.^^

[Opal storm]

Definitely not like last year,though not as crazy as 2005.I say this will be a more normal season.

[HURAKAN]

We're in an active period and 2007 should be more than normal. It has to be remembered than in active periods you have inactive years, and in inactive periods you have overactive years. Moreover, the possible development of La Niña and the fact that water temperatures in front of Africa are higher than normal indicates that 2007 should be an interesting one.

[JonathanBelles]

I personally think it will be an active season with a couple storms above average with more US hits. I also expect a long drawn out season with an early start.

[meteorologyman]

2004 & 2005 was consider neutral and it was intense, were (almost) in La nina, i hav no doubt thatwe will see similar to 04/05 if not worse, as far as where they hit i don't know but lookin @ Bermuda High Pressure whic constently changes, I'm getting a little concern. look how far it strecthes


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_00.gif

[Scorpion]

A season like 2004 is in the cards

[vbhoutex]

We're starting early with some "dire" predictions, yet I see no back up to most of them. How about some back up guys. It is easy to say it!!! Now please back it up!

[573storms]

We're starting early with some "dire" predictions, yet I see no back up to most of them. How about some back up guys. It is easy to say it!!! Now please back it up!

There could easily be a hurricane hit in 07 that causes lots of devastation in the U.S. For your "back it up" request I would say La Nina plus Max Mayfield's Recent comments that many homes in the south are poorly constructed because of the state governors.

The technology exists to build high-rise buildings capable of withstanding hurricane-force winds and tropical storm surge more powerful than those experienced in the last few years. Much of Hong Kong's architecture has been built to survive typhoons, and hotels and apartments built in Kobe, Japan, after a 1995 earthquake devastated the city are touted as indestructible, he said.

What is lacking in the United States is the political will to make and impose hard decisions on building codes and land use in the face of resistance from the influential building industry and a public still willing to gamble that the big one will never hit, he said.

"It's good for the tax base" to allow developers to put up buildings on the coastline, Mayfield said in explaining politicians' reluctance to deter housing projects that expose residents to storm risks.

"I don't want the builders to get mad at me," he said, "but the building industry strongly opposes improvement in building codes."

Consumers also have yet to demand sturdier construction, Mayfield added. A builder gets a better return on investment in upgraded carpet and appliances than for safety features above and beyond most states' minimal requirements, he said.

Mayfield can't fix but he is right that big hurricanes + shoddy construction thanks to corrupt leaders in the southern states equals disaster.

[vbhoutex]

What I am talking about has nothing to do with politics of any kind. Keep it that way!

Of course there could easily be a very destructive hit in '07!!! That is a possibility every year.

But when people come saying "it's going to be very active", "there are going to be destructive hits on the "name your coast or state"", then S2K not only requests and desires back up to the statements but will begin demanding it if these types of statements get out of hand. EVERYONE IS WELCOME TO MAKE PREDICTIONS!! IN FACT IT IS SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGED, but only if it is done with sound reasoning and facts and of course the required discalimer.

[Lindaloo]

573storms
[font=Courier New]Shoddy construction in the southern states? lol. Here on the MS Gulf Coast codes have been strictly enforced since Camille. Please tell me what kind of code there is that can withstand a surge like Katrina's and Rita's? I know you cannot provide me with accurate information so your opinion is all I will be waiting for. [/font]

[AussieMark]

During La Nina years often there are less systems in total but the ones that do develop get strong

i.e

1999 only had 12 named storms but of those 8 were hurricanes and of those 5 were majors

expressed as a % 67% of the Tropical storms that year were Hurricanes
and 62.5% of the hurricanes were majors

another year that was a La Nina was 1998

which was 14/10/3

then we have neutral years like

2001 and 2003

2001: 15/9/4

2003: 16/7/3

[573storms]

573storms
[font=Courier New]Shoddy construction in the southern states? lol. Here on the MS Gulf Coast codes have been strictly enforced since Camille. Please tell me what kind of code there is that can withstand a surge like Katrina's and Rita's? I know you cannot provide me with accurate information so your opinion is all I will be waiting for. [/font]

I agree that all is lost in a Rita and Katrina sized surge. Anyway it was Max Mayfield who was talking about a disaster and poor construction codes because of political decisions in this news story. He seems to be insinuating that there is some kind of conspiracy between politicians and the building industry to keep lax building codes and that this could somehow make a disaster worse. There was quite a bit of damage from Wilma in Miami -- maybe that's what Max is talking about?

[GalvestonDuck]

What in the world does construction or politics have to do with how active a hurricane season will be?

If you can make a correlation between those two things and meteorology, I'll be impressed. Otherwise, please stay ON TOPIC.

[cycloneye]

Withold your numbers and the one sentence posts for the 2007 season until April 1,when the official storm2k forecast numbers poll will be up.In terms of posting a more thoughtful prediction,you can post it with the disclaimer below. I will have my own prediction for the season in the comming weeks at the Tropical Analysis forum.

Storm2k Disclaimer



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Derek Ortt]

Please tell me what kind of code there is that can withstand a surge like Katrina's and Rita's?

Nothing can withstand the water.

However, there are SOME steps to protect against the wind, but even those will not prevent total destruction once you get into the cat 3 and higher wind regimes. Re-enforced concrete should be the standard code on the hurricane coast, IMO, much like in Cayman. And please get rid of glass high rises (MIAMI AND LAUDERDALE, especially)

[TheRingo]

Does the La Nina bring warmer temps to the Caribbean side of the Atlantic or more towards the African side?

[Lindaloo]

Please tell me what kind of code there is that can withstand a surge like Katrina's and Rita's?

Nothing can withstand the water.

However, there are SOME steps to protect against the wind, but even those will not prevent total destruction once you get into the cat 3 and higher wind regimes. Re-enforced concrete should be the standard code on the hurricane coast, IMO, much like in Cayman. And please get rid of glass high rises (MIAMI AND LAUDERDALE, especially)

We have those strict codes, Derek. We do not have any real high rise buildings here, we only had barges with windows. Some of the buildings on the water were reinforced concrete and did not get swept inland, only flooded the lower floors.

[Ptarmigan]

I predict 2007 will be more active than 2006 for sure. I predict 12 to 15 storms, 4 to 6 hurricanes, and 3 to 4 major hurricanes. I found that La Nina usually mean more active season, but not much as neutral. However, there are more major hurricanes to develop.

[JTD]

Something that nobody has mentioned thus far,

What are the background pressures like this year? If they are higher the way they were in 2006, that tells us something. If lower like in 2005, that tells us something as well.