SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

[PTrackerLA]

We actually need the rain now, we're over an inch below normal for the year. What started out as a very wet year has quickly transitioned to our typical "north of us" regime that we see every spring which eventually leads to drought. Hopefully we get some good rains out of this low.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well, the GFS has flip-flopped again...

The 0z now shows the low passing well NE of here with probably nothing more than a slight chance of rain for us.

I really hope this changes again though, because although I like the nice weather, I also like the rain every now and then. It just feels like we have gone way too long without any "real" rainfall here in the Houston area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 6z GFS has flip-flopped too. It now shows the low moving much closer to us once again...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml - 6pm Sunday

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml - 12am Monday

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml - 6am Monday

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml - 12pm Monday

[JenBayles]

I agree - we in the Houston area are right back in that same pattern as last summer and missing the rain. I'm currently watering in the lawn fert since if I wait for the next chance of rain to put it down - it won't ever get done. Back to hose-dragging weather.

[Yankeegirl]

Nice to see ya back here Jen!! My knee is bothering me, I think we might be in for a change this weekend... Hows it going for ya?

[JenBayles]

Hey Yankee! I've been pretty sick with my usual gut stuff the past several weeks. Just doesn't seem to want to calm down this time. So far, my "weather butt" (bone graft site for neck vertebrae fusion) tells me no weather change is imminent. LOL!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS also now shows a more southerly track of the low, so we might be back in business!

Take a look...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
^^Sunday evening. ^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml
^^Monday morning.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml
^^Monday afternoon.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml
^^Monday evening.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
^^Tuesday morning.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml
^^Tuesday afternoon.^^

Looks like, if this run is right, that we might see a good shot at showers and storms (possibly some strong to severe or with heavy rain) Sunday through next Tuesday.

[Yankeegirl]

[font=Verdana][marq=down][align=justify]Does it never fail, it always rains on Spring Break!!!![/align][/marq][/font]

[jasons2k]

At least it won't be cold

[jasons2k]

Interesting discussion from DFW on the low:

SUNDAY THROUGH DAY SEVEN...HAVE THROWN OUT GFS BECAUSE IT REMAINS
AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE MODELS. GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A
CUT OFF 500MB LOW AND HAS DRIFTED IT ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF TEXAS
OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS OF MODEL RUNS. ECMWF/DGEX/UKMET HAVE NOT
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION...REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM. CURRENT 08/12Z GFS RUN WOULD STALL THE LOW OVER TX
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERATING PRECIPITATION THE
WHOLE TIME. MY EXPERIENCE TELLS ME THAT THESE STAGNANT LOWS DO NOT
HAPPEN DURING THE SPRING...BUT IN THE SUMMER WHEN A SITUATION SUCH
AS A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK SITS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND LOWS AT THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE BLOCK TEND TO DRIFT AROUND IN RESPONSE TO
SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW. THIS SPRING PATTERN HAS BEEN TOO
PROGRESSIVE AND IS TOO ZONAL FOR THE GFS SOLUTION TO MAKE MUCH
SENSE. COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES AND THE HYDROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER CONFIRMS A CONSENSUS THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
VERIFYING BETTER LATELY AND THE GFS SOLUTION SEEM UNRELIABLE. I
HAVE STUCK MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF/DGEX SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY ON. IF
GFS WINDS UP VERIFYING...THIS WILL HAVE BEEN A VERY UNUSUAL
PATTERN DEVELOPMENT.

And Austin/SAT:
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROF.
THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION IS ONCE AGAIN THE OUTLIER BY DEVELOPING A
CUTOFF LOW OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING TO HAVE IN PARKED
OVER TEXAS THRU TUESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THIS GFS SOLUTION
WILL BE TOSSED OUT. THE FCST WILL BE BASED ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROF...AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...DGEX AND
NOGAPS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also an interesting Houston AFD on the low:

THE GFS`S ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF
LATE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY IGNORED. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT THE
PERTURBATION ENSEMBLE IS CATCHING ON TO AS MORE LONE STAR CUT-OFF
LOWS WERE BEGIN SPAT OUT IT AT 12Z. EACH RUN IS A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT STORY SO IT REMAINS THE OUTLIER. THE CONSENSUS IS TO
LEAN TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION FROM MID-SUNDAY INTO MIDNIGHT
MONDAY. OF COURSE...THE SHORTWAVE KICKER IS STILL OFF IN THE
PACIFIC SOMEWHERE SO UNTIL THIS CAN BE TIMED OUT ON SATURDAY THEN
20-30 POPS IS OUR MOVE. WILL LET WEEKEND SHIFT DECIDE WHETHER WE
WILL GET MILD OR SEVERE CONVECTION OUT OF THIS POSSIBLY-DECENT
WEATHER MAKER.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS continues the stormy trend. This is now the 3rd run in a row.

Sun. Evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

Mon. early morning= http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Mon. morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

Mon. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

Mon. evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

0z GFS now continues the southern low-track trend as well (4 in a row now). Because of this, and the fact that it is only about 66-72 hours out, I think it is looking more and more likely that this may actually play out. Should be interesting to see what the NWS and SPC says about it tomorrow...

Sun. evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

Mon. early morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

Mon. morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Mon. afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

Mon. evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

[jasons2k]

Looks more & more like we're getting storms Monday that's for sure

[JenBayles]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=141

Wooo hooo! We're up to 50% for Sunday night. Dare I hope? Or is this another case of what the GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away?

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67.

[southerngale]

I'm not ready for rain yet! I was actually able to do some things in my yard a few days ago, without sinking!! I had forgotten what that was like. My yard has been pretty much useless for many months - this is nice. Go away, rain.




Oh, and don't forget to vote for MOTM!

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[PTrackerLA]

SG I think you're alone in not wanting the rain. Everyone else around you could use it since it was a dry February. You need a dome over your house, it seems you get more rain than anyone else!

[vbhoutex]

Jen send the BC dome over to SG. We need the rain here in Houston.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the NWS for northern Harris county...

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, with a high near 76. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.

BTW, the 12z GFS was one of the "stormiest" yet. It shows a huge bullseye over SE Texas on Monday morning...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[JenBayles]

I WISH I could move the Bear Creek Dome! SG, REALLY! If I could blow the darn thing over your way, I'd do it!