GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[meteorologyman]

Here are the images of Bermuda, Hi and Low pressures w/ 3-14 days loop

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

[meteorologyman]

This is the Tropical storm risk dealing with ACE for March, I find this quite disturbing March 2004 was at ACE 122, this year were already at ACE 172

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/d ... ar2007.pdf

this is a list from past years to today

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/d ... ar2007.pdf

[ncupsscweather]

Ocean Weather

[Ptarmigan]

I'm sorry but warmer temperatures are only one piece of the puzzle.
There have been many seasons in the past when the water was basically boiling and we still had an average or below average season. Anyway, as I've said many times before it only takes one major hurricane to cause mass death and destruction. I would still be concerned if the waters were below average right now.

True. SST is part of the picture. There are various factors, like windsheer, ambient pressure, and humidity of the air in the area. Everything hsa to be right for a major hurricane to form.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Do we have any insight yet on where they expect the Highs to set up this year?

[gatorcane]

Do we have any insight yet on where they expect the Highs to set up this year?

No it's even hard to predict this a week in advance let along 3-6 months.

[cycloneye]

I dont know about all of you but the most important graphic about how the waters are in terms of how warm or how less warm they are is the Heat Content graphic.I will post the Heat Content data at every page of this thread.Surely the Atlantic Basin is warmer than in 2006 and almost the same as 2004-05.

[SouthFloridawx]

Do you have any maps from the years aformentioned?

[cycloneye]

Above is the March 9,2004 graphic.



Above is the March 9,2005 graphic.



Above is the March 9,2006 graphic.

The Caribbean Sea is the area that mantains a warmer heat content than any of the areas in the rest of the Atlantic Basin in the three years above.

[Grease Monkey]

Maybe I need to get my eyes checked but based on those graphs, it doesn't look like 2007 is any warmer in the atlantic than 2006. The only area that really looks like 2007 has the advange over 04,05, and 06 is that red area in the carribean. It also looks to be slightly cooler in the gulf overall compared to 04,05, and 06.

[James]

It looks as though after the last few days there's been a little bit of cooling in the central Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

The northern GOM is much more shallow so it will warm up very fast once the air temps warm along the GOM. I am a bit concerned about the fact the loop current is warmer this year and that the NW Caribbean is also warmer.....thoughts?

[TheRingo]

the depth and concentration is of concern because that will just spread out.

[gatorcane]

the depth and concentration is of concern because that will just spread out.

the stage is being set for SSTs to be warm enough by June 1st to support activity in the GOM -- the question is will the UL winds follow?

[TheRingo]

well if the anomalies forecast comes true for August-September we could be looking at very low windshear.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTSea.gif

[gatorcane]

well if the anomalies forecast comes true for August-September we could be looking at very low windshear.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTSea.gif

that's just great, hopefully these UL winds don't verify.....the waiting game continues...

[SouthFloridawx]

well if the anomalies forecast comes true for August-September we could be looking at very low windshear.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTSea.gif

that's just great, hopefully these UL winds don't verify.....the waiting game continues...

That is the 3.4 nino sst anomaly forecast showing below -1 deg., throughout the entire hurricane season. Remember all the other factors have to come into play for an above normal season.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That map of the heat content in 2007 looks very warm in the caribbean and loop current in the gulf of mexico. Lets hope that no big
hurricanes move over those areas this year.

[meteorologyman]

The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) March forecast update for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2007 continues to anticipate an active season to high probability. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin and US landfalling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to be about 75% above the 1950-2006 norm in 2007. This is the highest March forecast for activity in any year since the TSR replicated real-time forecasts started in 1984. There is a high (~86%) likelihood that activity will be in the top one-third of years historically.
This is the source
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... g_b_1.html


ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy
http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/TSRATLFo ... ar2007.pdf

[Grease Monkey]

and how accurate have these forecast been in the past overall?