SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???
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Yankeegirl
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Extremeweatherguy
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Latest word from the Houston AFD:
Looks like they are growing increasingly concerned over this.
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL BE
THE UPSTREAM KICKER THAT WILL DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE QUASI-CONSISTENT GFS THAT WAS THE
LONE WOLF A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SUDDENLY BECOME AN ITEM OF
DISCUSSION. THERE WAS A SIGNAL THAT ITS ENSEMBLE HAD BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PICKING UP ON SINCE MID-WEEK. TODAY`S EXTENDED MODEL
RUNS HAVE NOW BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS IDEA OF SLOWING THE OPEN
WAVE DOWN...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF A LOW AND PLACING THIS HIGHLY
ERRATIC FEATURE FURTHER WEST WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. THE 18Z NAM
IS EVEN JUMPING ON THE BAND WAGON AS THIS MOST CURRENT RUN HAS A
CUT-OFF LOW SLOWLY SLIDING TOWARDS SABINE PASS. WHAT MOST CONCERNS
ME IS THAT EVEN THE EURO/CANADIAN/UKMET SUITE HAVE CONSISTENTLY
TRENDED FROM A ONCE-PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE TROUGH OUT OF HERE BY
EARLY MONDAY TO THE CRAZY GFS SOLUTION EVERYONE (INCLUDING ME)
WAS WILLING TO TOSS OUT A FEW DAYS AGO...THAT IS A CUT-OFF LOW
SPINNING OUT TO OUR WEST WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. THE
KEY WORDS ARE `SLOW- MOVING` WESTERN UPPER LOW. THIS SPELLS A
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR US "IF" THE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUALLY
TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER-MOVING CUT-OFF SITTING OFF IN WEST TX. MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE HEAVY RAIN FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS
OF NOW AT THIS WRITING...MONDAY IS THE TARGET DAY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD AFFECT OUR CWA. I WILL ADDRESS THIS
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HWO THAT WILL COME OUT AROUND 4 PM CST.
Looks like they are growing increasingly concerned over this.
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southerngale
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Make it kinda big then... a lot of people around here have been enjoying the drier weather the past few weeks. Look up Pine Island Bayou... I think it's spent more time above flood stage than below the past several months. lolPTrackerLA wrote:SG I think you're alone in not wanting the rain. Everyone else around you could use it since it was a dry February. You need a dome over your house, it seems you get more rain than anyone else!
Don't get me wrong... I love thunderstorms and I usually love rainy days, but (up until a few weeks ago) there's just been so much of it - you miss a dry ground and the sun after a while. It's just been crazy wet around here. I've enjoyed the nice change... that's all.
It's crazy... this time last year, we were all in a terrible drought.
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Extremeweatherguy
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The 0z NAM is in, and it looks good for those who want rain, and bad for those who do not. It is buying into the event big-time now, and is showing a pretty nasty Monday for us (just like the past runs of the GFS). This is probably the most aggressive run of the NAM yet for SE Texas...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
^^Monday morning^^
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml
^^Monday afternoon^^
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
^^Monday evening^^
This scenario also seems a bit slower than previously thought (if it actually plays out). It is showing the bulk of the bad weather arriving midday on Monday instead of Sunday night and Monday morning. If this is the case, then daytime temperatures could possibly lead to more fuel for the storms. Could get interesting for sure.
Now it is time to wait for the 0z GFS to see what it has to say. It should be coming in within the next 1-2 hours..
UPDATE: 0z GFS continues to look very wet and stormy as well. The main center of the low is slightly further north in this run, but the overall scenario is unchanged. It moves the low eastward VERY slowly and brings lots of TX heavy rains and storms from Sunday until Tuesday.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
^^Monday morning^^
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml
^^Monday afternoon^^
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
^^Monday evening^^
This scenario also seems a bit slower than previously thought (if it actually plays out). It is showing the bulk of the bad weather arriving midday on Monday instead of Sunday night and Monday morning. If this is the case, then daytime temperatures could possibly lead to more fuel for the storms. Could get interesting for sure.
Now it is time to wait for the 0z GFS to see what it has to say. It should be coming in within the next 1-2 hours..
UPDATE: 0z GFS continues to look very wet and stormy as well. The main center of the low is slightly further north in this run, but the overall scenario is unchanged. It moves the low eastward VERY slowly and brings lots of TX heavy rains and storms from Sunday until Tuesday.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Mar 09, 2007 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Yankeegirl
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southerngale wrote:Make it kinda big then... a lot of people around here have been enjoying the drier weather the past few weeks. Look up Pine Island Bayou... I think it's spent more time above flood stage than below the past several months. lolPTrackerLA wrote:SG I think you're alone in not wanting the rain. Everyone else around you could use it since it was a dry February. You need a dome over your house, it seems you get more rain than anyone else!
Don't get me wrong... I love thunderstorms and I usually love rainy days, but (up until a few weeks ago) there's just been so much of it - you miss a dry ground and the sun after a while. It's just been crazy wet around here. I've enjoyed the nice change... that's all.
It's crazy... this time last year, we were all in a terrible drought.
I can relate. We were just innundated for weeks with rain and flooding to the point that it's caused problems with homes becoming unlevel due to the ground sinking. Most of our homes were set back on piers last year when it was so hot and dry and now its mud and sinking. We've really been enjoying the sunshine but would appreciate a few nice gentle rains now and again to water the budding vegetation. Guess that would be asking too much huh? LOL
According to TWC last night it showed the bulk of the rain staying well north of I-10? Has something changed or will we southerners be looking at more rain south of I-10?
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southerngale
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Jagno wrote:southerngale wrote:Make it kinda big then... a lot of people around here have been enjoying the drier weather the past few weeks. Look up Pine Island Bayou... I think it's spent more time above flood stage than below the past several months. lolPTrackerLA wrote:SG I think you're alone in not wanting the rain. Everyone else around you could use it since it was a dry February. You need a dome over your house, it seems you get more rain than anyone else!
Don't get me wrong... I love thunderstorms and I usually love rainy days, but (up until a few weeks ago) there's just been so much of it - you miss a dry ground and the sun after a while. It's just been crazy wet around here. I've enjoyed the nice change... that's all.
It's crazy... this time last year, we were all in a terrible drought.
I can relate. We were just innundated for weeks with rain and flooding to the point that it's caused problems with homes becoming unlevel due to the ground sinking. Most of our homes were set back on piers last year when it was so hot and dry and now its mud and sinking. We've really been enjoying the sunshine but would appreciate a few nice gentle rains now and again to water the budding vegetation. Guess that would be asking too much huh? LOL
According to TWC last night it showed the bulk of the rain staying well north of I-10? Has something changed or will we southerners be looking at more rain south of I-10?
Of course that's asking too much. You know it's either nothing or a deluge around here 99% of the time.
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Extremeweatherguy
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2007
.DISCUSSION...
A COMBINATION OF STRATUS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND AREAS OF FOG
OVER SE TX EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES
DROP TO AS LOW AS 1/4SM BUT AT THIS TIME NOT ANTICIPATING AN
ADVISORY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER FOR TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY SO WILL NOT HAVE FOG MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THAT
TIME. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A NICE WEEKEND COMING UP BEFORE THINGS
REALLY GO DOWNHILL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST INLAND AREAS TODAY. MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TREND SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SE TX. IN
ADDITION...LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE OF A PROLONGED TAP OF DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER SE TX SUN AFTN
AND EVENING...WITH PWS OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS OF
10-12C FORECAST BY 12Z MONDAY. STRONG DIFFLUENCE AT 200-300 MB
LEVEL DEVELOPS OVER SE TX AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
OVER WEST/CENTRAL TX. CONVERGENCE IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER IS
MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN ZONES SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN
CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUN AFTN/EVENING...BUT
HAVE DELAYED THE HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
EXTENDED THEM INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER TRENDS IN
THE MODELS. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
HEAVY RAIN OVER SE TX MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATEST HPC QPF FORECAST
HAS 2-3 INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 12Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER
CWA. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SMALL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST...AND
OVER ALL THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. LIFT/DYNAMICS/DEEPEST
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF SE TX BY TUESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER HAVE
KEPT LOW POPS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN LINGERING 1.2 INCH PWS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MODELS SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN FURTHER.
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG FRONT CROSSING SE TX THU NIGHT...BUT
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER/WEAKER AT THIS TIME.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
321 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2007
.DISCUSSION...
A COMBINATION OF STRATUS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND AREAS OF FOG
OVER SE TX EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SPOTS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES
DROP TO AS LOW AS 1/4SM BUT AT THIS TIME NOT ANTICIPATING AN
ADVISORY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER FOR TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY SO WILL NOT HAVE FOG MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THAT
TIME. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A NICE WEEKEND COMING UP BEFORE THINGS
REALLY GO DOWNHILL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST INLAND AREAS TODAY. MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE
TO TREND SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE SYSTEM...LEADING TO A
MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SE TX. IN
ADDITION...LATEST RUNS SHOWING MORE OF A PROLONGED TAP OF DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER SE TX SUN AFTN
AND EVENING...WITH PWS OF 1.5-1.6 INCHES AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS OF
10-12C FORECAST BY 12Z MONDAY. STRONG DIFFLUENCE AT 200-300 MB
LEVEL DEVELOPS OVER SE TX AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF
OVER WEST/CENTRAL TX. CONVERGENCE IN THE SFC-850 MB LAYER IS
MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN ZONES SUN NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN
CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUN AFTN/EVENING...BUT
HAVE DELAYED THE HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
EXTENDED THEM INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER TRENDS IN
THE MODELS. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
HEAVY RAIN OVER SE TX MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATEST HPC QPF FORECAST
HAS 2-3 INCHES OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 12Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER
CWA. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SMALL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST...AND
OVER ALL THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. LIFT/DYNAMICS/DEEPEST
MOISTURE SHIFT EAST OF SE TX BY TUESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER HAVE
KEPT LOW POPS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN LINGERING 1.2 INCH PWS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MODELS SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN FURTHER.
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG FRONT CROSSING SE TX THU NIGHT...BUT
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER/WEAKER AT THIS TIME.
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Major heavy rain event for SE TX. I could use some rain. Sorry SG. I know your yard is just now drying up. Looks like a widespread heavy rain event in the offing.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Increasing threat of widespread heavy rains and possible flooding starting late Sunday.
Models continue to trend deeper and slower with expected cut-off upper low over TX early next week with latest models showing significant rainfall over the region. Strong Gulf tap is also forecast to develop under very favorable upper air venting suggesting slow moving or quasi-stationary MCS development during nocturnal periods.
Discussion:
Gulf moisture is increasing ahead of short wave over the Rockies which will drop SSE and then cut-off into a closed upper low over W TX midday Sunday. Rich tropical tap with surface dewpoints of 65-70 degrees and 850mb dewpoints of 10-12 C will surge northward from the southern Gulf and invade the area late Sunday. Strong upper level dynamics will come to bear over SE TX given the position of the upper low to our WNW with strong surface to 850mb lift progged starting around midnight Sunday and impressive 300mb upper air divergence. Low level jet increases to 30-45kts late Sunday evening and continues into early Tuesday suggesting a well defined moisture tap and stream into the area.
Feel thunderstorms will erupt late Sunday N and W of SE TX and very slowly move into the area overnight and through the day Monday into Tuesday. Slow moving mesoscale boundaries is cause for concern along with the overall very slow motion of the upper air feature. Nocturnal formation of widespread excessive rainfall appears possible given moist column and good low level feed off the Gulf of Mexico both early Monday and again Tuesday morning.
Rainfall Totals:
Current HPC and model guidance suggest widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall Sunday midnight through Tuesday AM with isolated amounts of 5-8 inches. Concern is growing for a prolonged heavy rainfall event given the slow nature of the system and deepening moisture profiles. Analog event is 3/4/92 which resulted in heavy rains and flooding over SE TX ahead of a slow moving upper air storm system.
Location of training cells and low level boundaries will determine where the rainfall is maximized and the flooding potential the greatest.
Flash Flood Watch may be needed late Sunday or early Monday given potential threat even with dry ground conditions.
Models continue to trend deeper and slower with expected cut-off upper low over TX early next week with latest models showing significant rainfall over the region. Strong Gulf tap is also forecast to develop under very favorable upper air venting suggesting slow moving or quasi-stationary MCS development during nocturnal periods.
Discussion:
Gulf moisture is increasing ahead of short wave over the Rockies which will drop SSE and then cut-off into a closed upper low over W TX midday Sunday. Rich tropical tap with surface dewpoints of 65-70 degrees and 850mb dewpoints of 10-12 C will surge northward from the southern Gulf and invade the area late Sunday. Strong upper level dynamics will come to bear over SE TX given the position of the upper low to our WNW with strong surface to 850mb lift progged starting around midnight Sunday and impressive 300mb upper air divergence. Low level jet increases to 30-45kts late Sunday evening and continues into early Tuesday suggesting a well defined moisture tap and stream into the area.
Feel thunderstorms will erupt late Sunday N and W of SE TX and very slowly move into the area overnight and through the day Monday into Tuesday. Slow moving mesoscale boundaries is cause for concern along with the overall very slow motion of the upper air feature. Nocturnal formation of widespread excessive rainfall appears possible given moist column and good low level feed off the Gulf of Mexico both early Monday and again Tuesday morning.
Rainfall Totals:
Current HPC and model guidance suggest widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall Sunday midnight through Tuesday AM with isolated amounts of 5-8 inches. Concern is growing for a prolonged heavy rainfall event given the slow nature of the system and deepening moisture profiles. Analog event is 3/4/92 which resulted in heavy rains and flooding over SE TX ahead of a slow moving upper air storm system.
Location of training cells and low level boundaries will determine where the rainfall is maximized and the flooding potential the greatest.
Flash Flood Watch may be needed late Sunday or early Monday given potential threat even with dry ground conditions.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Yankeegirl
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:Thanks for the update jeff! Looks like a serious rain/flooding issue may be on it's way.
Any thoughts on possible severe weather along with this event?
Severe threat looks marginal and agree with SPC Day 2-3 outlooks. Isolated wind (wet microburst) may be possible Monday. Main threat no doubt is heavy rainfall...will we get enough to cuase a problem remains the bigger question.
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Extremeweatherguy
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ok, sounds good, thanks a lot. Should be interesting to see how this all plays out. Hopefully we will get lucky and this won't cause too many issues.jeff wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:Thanks for the update jeff! Looks like a serious rain/flooding issue may be on it's way.
Any thoughts on possible severe weather along with this event?
Severe threat looks marginal and agree with SPC Day 2-3 outlooks. Isolated wind (wet microburst) may be possible Monday. Main threat no doubt is heavy rainfall...will we get enough to cuase a problem remains the bigger question.
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Yankeegirl
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GalvestonDuck
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Yankeegirl wrote:Not to change the subject, but it sure is toasty outside today!!!
I wouldn't know. Grrr....!
(I'm working today, but I have 13 glorious vacation days coming up during my b-day week. Guess what I'll be doing. Hint: Four-letter word meaning "to get something ready," also, slang for well-dressed kids of the 80's.
)
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southerngale
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GalvestonDuck wrote:Yankeegirl wrote:Not to change the subject, but it sure is toasty outside today!!!
I wouldn't know. Grrr....!
(I'm working today, but I have 13 glorious vacation days coming up during my b-day week. Guess what I'll be doing. Hint: Four-letter word meaning "to get something ready," also, slang for well-dressed kids of the 80's.
PREP!
What did I win?
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GalvestonDuck
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- Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)
southerngale wrote:GalvestonDuck wrote:Yankeegirl wrote:Not to change the subject, but it sure is toasty outside today!!!
I wouldn't know. Grrr....!
(I'm working today, but I have 13 glorious vacation days coming up during my b-day week. Guess what I'll be doing. Hint: Four-letter word meaning "to get something ready," also, slang for well-dressed kids of the 80's.
PREP!
What did I win?
Your very own top-secret, marqueed avatar!
[marq=right][spoil]
[/spoil][/marq]
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