SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

weatherrabbit_tx · #301 Postby **weatherrabbit_tx** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 7:22 pm

thats my fear too the more east it comes its going to explode around here

JenBayles · #302 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 7:35 pm

Man! That El Campo cell is getting nastier by the minute! Currently, the Dome is holding off everything but a few sprinkles. For anyone interested in the Dome location, if you look at the HGX radar, it's about 10 miles NW of the I-10 and Beltway 8 intersection. If nothing else, we've got some decent radar watching in store this evening.

JenBayles · #303 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 7:37 pm

Our neighbors are flying in tonite from Denver and supposed to land at IAH around 10:00 p.m. Wondering about delays?!

FXUS64 KHGX 132351
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
651 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

.AVIATION...
LONG NIGHT AHEAD FOR AVIATION INTERESTS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS 00Z WILL
PROPAGATE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET STRENTHENS
AS UPPER LOW APPROACHS AND WILL ASSIST IN MAINTAINING LARGE MCS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUOUS THUNDERSTORMS MOST TERMINALS
06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AFTER 12Z IS STABLE
AIR IN WAKE OF MCS. WORRY ABOUT DETAILS LATER ISSUANCES. 30

Extremeweatherguy · #304 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:01 pm

lots of lightning being generated by the cells developing to the SW. Looks like my lightning show may actually play out!

JenBayles · #305 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:15 pm

EG - I just read your post and went out to look to my North. Can't see any lightning, but the Dome has been compromised! Nice moderate rain going right now...

JenBayles · #306 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:23 pm

Hmmmm.... EG, are you watching the Victoria/El Campo blob right now? Think the Dome will repel that one? Seems to be headed my way. And Yankee - where the He!! are you tonite?!

Extremeweatherguy · #307 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:27 pm

JenBayles wrote:Hmmmm.... EG, are you watching the Victoria/El Campo blob right now? Think the Dome will repel that one? Seems to be headed my way. And Yankee - where the He!! are you tonite?!

yeah, that blob looks impressive. I wouldn't be surprised to see another warning go up for it soon. According to radar estimates...there is a 100% chance it is producing hail and a 50% chance it is producing severe hail. The max. hail size on radar is 1.25".

#308 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:28 pm

Extremeweatherguy · #309 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:29 pm

BINGO! I called it right on time...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
823 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 818 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WALLIS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIMONTON...ORCHARD...FULSHEAR...
MISSION BEND...TOWN WEST...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION
WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY
STILL DEVELOP WITH LITTLE WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE AND SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Extremeweatherguy · #310 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:31 pm

I have gotten two loud bangs of thunder here within the last 3 minutes. Storms must be quickly developing up here too.

#311 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:36 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I have gotten two loud bangs of thunder here within the last 3 minutes. Storms must be quickly developing up here too.

Just had our first Flash and Clap of Thunder here as well.

JenBayles · #312 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:51 pm

All right Yankeegirl, you TRAITOR! Found you over at KHOU! :beam:

Getchya$$ back on over here already! :cheesy:

JenBayles · #313 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:53 pm

Anyone think that severe "Blob from Victoria" will go north of I-10 and threaten the Bear Creek Dome? Seems like it's been trying to drift a bit north.. just not sure if it will go enough north to penetrate. I can now hear thunder over my dishwasher, and that's saying something since this ancient machine can put out quite the number of decibels in noise. Yikes! Just got a brown out!

Stratosphere747 · #314 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:02 pm

Complex out of Washington and Austin counties looks to be strengthening. I doubt the "dome" is going to hold....

http://www.srh.weather.gov/productview. ... =HGXAFDHGX

LONG NIGHT AHEAD FOR AVIATION INTERESTS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS 00Z WILL
PROPAGATE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET STRENTHENS
AS UPPER LOW APPROACHS AND WILL ASSIST IN MAINTAINING LARGE MCS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUOUS THUNDERSTORMS MOST TERMINALS
06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AFTER 12Z IS STABLE
AIR IN WAKE OF MCS. WORRY ABOUT DETAILS LATER ISSUANCES. 30

#315 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:03 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Complex out of Washington and Austin counties looks to be strengthening. I doubt the "dome" is going to hold....

http://www.srh.weather.gov/productview. ... =HGXAFDHGX

LONG NIGHT AHEAD FOR AVIATION INTERESTS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS 00Z WILL
PROPAGATE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET STRENTHENS
AS UPPER LOW APPROACHS AND WILL ASSIST IN MAINTAINING LARGE MCS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUOUS THUNDERSTORMS MOST TERMINALS
06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AFTER 12Z IS STABLE
AIR IN WAKE OF MCS. WORRY ABOUT DETAILS LATER ISSUANCES. 30

Agrees

KatDaddy · #316 Postby **KatDaddy** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:09 pm

I'm afraid that Dome is going to pounded soon Jen so hold on. A long night for all of us. Concerned areas just south of Houston Metro are going to take the brunt this time around. This includes me.

#317 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:11 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:BINGO! I called it right on time...

Not to split hairs.....but....i just read pages 14-16 and was wondering where you called this? Because somebody else said the following at about 4:00

"Intewresting discussion from the SPC. I guess all the convection to the south may be having an impact (i.e., stabilizing the atmosphere and cutting off inflow) as I was concerned about earlier. Although -- it looks like there is a small slot of undisturbed air between Houston and Matagorda which will need to be watched carefully as heating is maximized and we head towards rush hour. This area is just to our SW so any storms that form there have the potential to move into the metro area between 4-8PM."

Maybe that person was a little off by an hour on timing but I don't see where you said 9pm...in fact, two hours ago, you were "discouraged" by the radar... :oops:

JenBayles · #318 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:12 pm

I think y'all are correct. I just looked outside and the rain is picking up and have a nice light show going on. Dave just checked the gutters and one downspout is clogged - great! It's a critical spout too, otherwise all that water just overflows on the back patio and tries to come in the back door. Yeah, it's gonna be a long night I think...

KatDaddy · #319 Postby **KatDaddy** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:15 pm

You should be getting hammer about now Jen

Stratosphere747 · #320 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:21 pm

Corpus continues to impress me with their discos! Issued just a few hours ago....

UPDATE...HAD COORDINATED WITH SPC FOR TORNADO WATCH 61 WHICH
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CWA AND PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE AREA.
CURRENTLY SFC TROF BISECTING CWA WITH TRIPLE POINT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION IN HEBBRONVILLE. THIS TRIPLE POINT AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD FROM PANHANDLE TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WX AND FLASH FLOODING ZONES IN
REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH CURRENT NOMENCLATURE AND INDICATION OF
WATCHES. PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MODERATE
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER EXISTS WITH HIGHER HELICITY VALUES
OVER BEE AND GOLIAD COUNTIES APPROACHING 400 J/KG. WITH THIS
SAID...TORNADO THREAT PARTICULARLY HIGH NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BEEVILLE TO PORT LAVACA THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING STILL HAS
HIGH POTENTIAL WITH TRAINING OF THE STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA.
AS UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
WESTERN AREAS WILL HAVE A STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING THRU. WITH
HIGH CAPES AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE WEST TSTMS POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SE TX / SW LA - Heavy rains this week-Tues. and Fri???

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