Southern Peninsula FL Hurricane Landfalls

[Blown Away]

SFL = Generally from Central FL through Middle Keys
Since the active cycle began during the early 1990's, SFL still not experiencing the landfall rate like it did during the 20's, 30's, and 40's. Seems reasonable to me to expect a SFL hurricane every other year for at least the next 10 years.



SFL Hurricane Landfalls: 1919 - 1954. (35 years)(21 hurricane landfalls)(1 every 1.6 years)



SFL Hurricane Landfalls: 1955 - 1990. (35 years)(7 hurricanes)(1 every 5 years)



SFL Hurricane Landfalls: 1991 - 2006. (15 years)(7 hurricanes)(1 every 2.1 years)

[Scorpion]

Looks like we are due this year, especially with a La Nina occurring

[wxman57]

I agree, this type of pattern is generally bad for Florida north through the Carolinas. About 3-4 years ago I made a web page talking about "The Case Against Florida".

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

[gatorcane]

WxMan agreed. I don't think its coincidence that South Florida's population boom which started in the 1960s through present corresponded to a period of virtually no activity here. That same population boom would NOT have happened had the active cycle been in the 1960s-1980s instead. No way would people move here with a major hurricane threat once very 2 years....

This year looks like it could be another dismal one for South Florida................

[gatorcane]

WxMan from your article:

"So what might we expect for Florida the rest of this decade and in the next decade? See Image 9, below. The image below was constructed By Dr. Chris Landsea. He expects about 3 major hurricanes to hit Florida from 2004-2010 and again from 2010-2020. That's about 1 every 2-3 years. I agree with that conclusion. It all fits, prolonged warm Atlantic SST regime and prolonged cold-phase PDO leading to fewer El Ninos, more major hurricanes, and a significantly-enhanced east U.S. coast landfall threat in the coming decade and decades. Nowhere is the threat higher than in Florida."

[MississippiHurricane]

wow. Florida looks like a big intersection. How overdue is south FL from a big one? With the population ever increasing in FL, it could be a disater and take a lot longer to evacuate espically south FL, imo.

[Opal storm]

He expects about 3 major hurricanes to hit Florida from 2004-2010 and again from 2010-2020.

Well,Florida has already had 4 major hurricane landfalls since 2004 (not including Ivan) and we haven't even reached 2010 yet.

[Scorpion]

We have yet to be hit by a major hurricane in this active cycle(unless you count Wilma which was more of a Cat 1-2) so we're pretty due

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree, this type of pattern is generally bad for Florida north through the Carolinas. About 3-4 years ago I made a web page talking about "The Case Against Florida".

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

Thanks for the link! Very Informative

[JPmia]

WxMan agreed. I don't think its coincidence that South Florida's population boom which started in the 1960s through present corresponded to a period of virtually no activity here. That same population boom would NOT have happened had the active cycle been in the 1960s-1980s instead. No way would people move here with a major hurricane threat once very 2 years....

This year looks like it could be another dismal one for South Florida................

I agree. Wxman57 and other researchers such as some at FSU have said that Florida and I imagine particularly South FL will get one or more Major Canes by the end of this decade. So what we have 3 years and the active cycle is not even project to be over by then. Personally, I believe we will be dealing with a Major one of these years...just don't know which one! Each year I do something new around my house to get ready and with each improvement I think of "what will happen if we get a cane." Sounds kind of weird, but I can't help not to think about it.

[WeatherEmperor]

We have yet to be hit by a major hurricane in this active cycle(unless you count Wilma which was more of a Cat 1-2) so we're pretty due

Didnt your area location get hit by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004? I was under the impression that Jeanne was a Cat 3 at landfall. Am I wrong about this?

<RICKY>

[windycity]

Jeanne was a 3 in a very small area north of palm beach co.It hit my area as a 1-2,but hardly a 3.Derek had mentioned we hardly had cat 1 winds.So really,we havent had a major.

[Rainband]

I think mother nature is the only one that knows what will happen. Weather hasn't followed many rules that last few years.

[Derek Ortt]

I'd include Wilma as a cat 3 south Florida strike. However, NOBODY received cat 3 winds

Would have been different had it not have sat over the Yucatan. The 130KT flight level winds would have reached the surface, resulting in a cat 4 landfall and probably low end cat 3 winds in the center of Lauderdale.

We did learn one thing from Wilma... SF cannot sustain real cat 1 conditions, much less cat 2 or higher

Jeanne brough cat 3 winds to Hutinson Island (which was already trashed from Frances)

[gatorcane]

I'd include Wilma as a cat 3 south Florida strike. However, NOBODY received cat 3 winds

Would have been different had it not have sat over the Yucatan. The 130KT flight level winds would have reached the surface, resulting in a cat 4 landfall and probably low end cat 3 winds in the center of Lauderdale.

We did learn one thing from Wilma... SF cannot sustain real cat 1 conditions, much less cat 2 or higher

Jeanne brough cat 3 winds to Hutinson Island (which was already trashed from Frances)

interesting....Wilma did do more damage than I thought even with only CAT 2 winds.

[wxman57]

Here's the post-storm wind analysis map for Jeanne:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... th_kts.pdf

Highest contour area is 90 kts in a small area at landfall. The NHC report didn't mention any confirmed 100+kt 1-minute winds, but observations near the landfall point were fairly widely-spaced. From the NHC report:

"The value of 105 kt is based primarily on aircraft wind speeds of 113 kt measured at a flight level of 700 mb at 1429 UTC on 25 September and again at 0228 UTC on 26 September, reduced to a surface value of 102 kt using a 0.90 reduction factor. This wind speed estimate is for an "over water" wind. The aircraft wind observed at 0228 UTC was at a location about 35 n mi north of the center of the eye and just offshore of the Florida east coast east of Sebastian. It is possible that wind speeds of near 105 kt may have affected a small area of the coastline in the vicinity of Sebastian, although there are no surface observations at the coast to confirm this. In addition, Step frequency microwave radiometer wind measurements of up to 99 kt were obtained from a NOAA aircraft just prior to landfall."

So it's quite possible that Jeanne was an upper-end Cat 2 at landfall, as there were no observed Cat 3 winds near the surface prior to landfall.

[Hurricanevideo]

Pretty impressive maps there. South Florida looks over due.


Jeff Gammons
Hurricane Chase StormVideographer
http://www.stormvidepgrapher.com/blog/

[hial2]

Pretty impressive maps there. South Florida looks over due.


Jeff Gammons
Hurricane Chase StormVideographer
http://www.stormvidepgrapher.com/blog/

I hope you're wrong,because if it were to happen,it would be just like after the 1920's storm when Sfl sunk into a deep depression..I foresee all the big companies headquartered here pulling stakes and all the jobs along with them..The long term economic impact will be worse than anyone could ever imagine!

[Rainband]

Overdue. That term always makes me think. When is the last time tampa has had a major??? I guess our area is safer than south Florida and thats why I live here

[JonathanBelles]

the only Major hurricanes to come w/in 25 miles of St. Pete are the nonames of '21, '35, '46, and '49, Hurricane Easy, and Hurricane Alma.

The noname of 1946 came closest within 2-6 miles