Gulf Of Mexico Heat Content Can Now Support Category 4-5!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I kinow that SSTs are not the only factor, but

Gulf Of Mexico Heat Content can support category 4-5 hurricanes:

I have never seen anything like this in March before!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Opal storm]

I really doubt that.A cat 4 or 5 at this time of year would stir up much colder water from beneath the surface.Right now the Gulf could barely support a tropical storm.

[Scorpion]

I think its interesting because last year the maps didnt show the Gulf being able to support a Cat 3 until April, and here we are in mid-March with Cat 4/5 capability. Granted it doesn't really matter come hurricane season but it's something interesting to see.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think its interesting because last year the maps didnt show the Gulf being able to support a Cat 3 until April, and here we are in mid-March with Cat 4/5 capability. Granted it doesn't really matter come hurricane season but it's something interesting to see.

It's very surprising and scary in my opinion...im worried about this yr!

[Rainband]

We live in one of the safest areas in terms of Hurricane landfall.

[JonathanBelles]

We live in one of the safest areas in terms of Hurricane landfall.

??? we live in Florida

[hurricanetrack]

Jacksonville, Florida would be a great place to live. No major hurricanes in 400 years of history. Am I right about that? But just up the road in Brunswick and Savannah, some nasty ones in the late 1890s.

[Grease Monkey]

Jacksonville, Florida would be a great place to live. No major hurricanes in 400 years of history. Am I right about that?

How can we be so sure that our records are that accurate or not missing dating back 200+ years ago?

[Jagno]

I think its interesting because last year the maps didnt show the Gulf being able to support a Cat 3 until April, and here we are in mid-March with Cat 4/5 capability. Granted it doesn't really matter come hurricane season but it's something interesting to see.

It's very surprising and scary in my opinion...im worried about this yr!

I'm beginning to feel the same way. It seems each day there is more information indicating yet another condition that seems to be favorable for increased activity. All we can do is be prepared and stay tuned to S2K for the most valuable and accurate information in my opinion.

[gatorcane]

I kinow that SSTs are not the only factor, but

Gulf Of Mexico Heat Content can support category 4-5 hurricanes:

I have never seen anything like this in March before!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

only in the loop current, maybe. Most of the GOM cannot.

[Evil Jeremy]

this is scary. the condition continue to get worse day by day. With the La Nina coming on, and other feature coming, i wouldnt be suprised if we had a very early season start this year!

[vbhoutex]

this is scary. the condition continue to get worse day by day. With the La Nina coming on, and other feature coming, i wouldnt be suprised if we had a very early season start this year!

Please tell us what other features you are referring to. Give us the whole picture.

[wxman57]

Jacksonville, Florida would be a great place to live. No major hurricanes in 400 years of history. Am I right about that? But just up the road in Brunswick and Savannah, some nasty ones in the late 1890s.

Concerning the topic, I see nothing to be alarmed about. SSTs in the Gulf are actually cooler than last year at this time. And as we saw in 2006, you can have all the warm water there but that doesn't mean conditions aloft would support a major hurricane.

Major hurricane landfalls are rare in NE FL and on the GA coast. But what about Dora in 1964? Both Unisys and Coastal Services Center have it as a Cat 3 at landfall just south of Jacksonville.

Hurricane viewer at Coastal Services Center:
http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

Unisis best track data has landfall at 966mb and 95-100 kts. Pretty close if it wasn't a Cat 3:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Here's a map of major landfalls within 50 miles of Jacksonville from 1851-2006. Not very many. And consider that folks in Jacksonville pay the same insurance rates as those on the southern Peninsula.

[gatorcane]

I think we are getting too excited about the SSTs. As WxMan said there is not much difference than last year. Also look at some graphics in the SSTs thread posted by Luis...

Seriously...nothing is alarming in the GOM to me.