Possible severe weather in the Southeast?

[MiamiensisWx]

I've just decided to post this thread due to the emerging potential for a severe weather event today and tomorrow for the Southeast. A mid-level low with a surface feature and trough axis is centered over Louisiana and Mississippi. A developing surface front is within the vicinity extending southwest into the Gulf of Mexico with a shortwave signature. Upper-level dynamics look good for isolation and development of severe thunderstorm cells as the low moves eastward into Alabama and Georgia. The synoptics also indicate the potential for locally heavy precipitation. The threat today will be in the Florida Panhandle and into Georgia and eastern and central Alabama due to the best dynamics and instability within this region. The surface ridging over the Florida peninsula should shift eastward today, allowing conditions to uncap and permit convergence into the developing pre-frontal surface trough, allowing the potential development of a partial squall line. Due to the lack of Gulf moisture tap, the threat may be isolated but the coverage may be extensive.



Water vapor loop

Visible loop

Tallahassee NWS radar

Infra-red imagery

Water vapor imagery

Does anyone else agree with the potential?

The latest Tallahassee NWS discussion mentions the potential but expects the severe threat to remain isolated. I tend to agree with this premise but the potential still exists, especially with the tightening pressure gradient and surface warm front ahead of the low aiding in advection. This is a good discussion by Tallahassee's office.

[MississippiHurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Otherwise, I maybe wrong so dont go by my post as to what might/might not happen.

I believe it will be a heavy rain threat with possible flooding. Here we got very little rain but were told all week to expect heavy rain. The heaviest rain I believe will be in Florida panhandle, south Alabama and southern Georgia. Maybe a few thunderstorms possible.