Southern Peninsula FL Hurricane Landfalls

[Rainband]

I remember Elena very well. She was far off shore and look what she did

[AussieMark]

can the term overdue actually be used for Hurricanes and locations they hit?

I know earthquakes u can use it as the stress builds on a fault and eventually it has to reputure.

but Hurricanes don't exactly remember whwere they have hit its not like they say location X has not been hit in 20 years so its time now

[Scorpion]

We have yet to be hit by a major hurricane in this active cycle(unless you count Wilma which was more of a Cat 1-2) so we're pretty due

Didnt your area location get hit by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004? I was under the impression that Jeanne was a Cat 3 at landfall. Am I wrong about this?

<RICKY>

Very wrong. I dont know why Jeanne was classified as a 3. We got Cat 1 winds at most from that. Palm Beach County has not gotten over Cat 1 winds in a LONG time, perhaps 60 years.

[Rainband]

can the term overdue actually be used for Hurricanes and locations they hit?

I know earthquakes u can use it as the stress builds on a fault and eventually it has to reputure.

but Hurricanes don't exactly remember whwere they have hit its not like they say location X has not been hit in 20 years so its time now

I agree, but I think it is in terms of Landfalls in hurricane prone areas, and how often they do get hit in certain cycles.

[Rainband]

We have yet to be hit by a major hurricane in this active cycle(unless you count Wilma which was more of a Cat 1-2) so we're pretty due

Didnt your area location get hit by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004? I was under the impression that Jeanne was a Cat 3 at landfall. Am I wrong about this?

<RICKY>

Very wrong. I dont know why Jeanne was classified as a 3. We got Cat 1 winds at most from that. Palm Beach County has not gotten over Cat 1 winds in a LONG time, perhaps 60 years.

Jeanne made landfall in stuart north of you. That may be why

[Derek Ortt]

there was a small area of cat 3 winds in Jeanne, but they hit the area that was devastated by Frances

[cajungal]

I always watch out for storms that hit around Ft. Lauderdale or south of there, and then cross over into the open gulf. Because then the central gulf coast goes on alert. There have been several South Florida Hurricanes that hit SE Louisiana/MS next.

[wxmann_91]

I agree, this type of pattern is generally bad for Florida north through the Carolinas. About 3-4 years ago I made a web page talking about "The Case Against Florida".

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

Great work 57. With a La Nina this year, it looks like the cold phase of the PDO should be favored (especially considering that the PDO remained neutral during the last El Nino). A lot of indications this year are that it will be very active. Certainly not as active as 2005, but certainly more active than 2006.

[wxman57]

Very wrong. I dont know why Jeanne was classified as a 3. We got Cat 1 winds at most from that. Palm Beach County has not gotten over Cat 1 winds in a LONG time, perhaps 60 years.

A hurricane is classified by the strongest 1-minute wind observed (or estimated). Prior to landfall, the wind estimate will always be an over-water wind. There is less surface friction over the water, so wind speeds will be higher. As a hurricane moves ashore, frictional effects almost immediately knock down the 1-minute wind speeds a Saffir-Simpson category or more. Most Category 3 hurricanes (offshore) do not produce Category 3 winds on the coast, unless they have a very large area of strong Cat 3 winds, in which case some locations within a few miles of the beach could actually see sustained Cat-3 winds. When a Cat 3 makes landfall, most areas inland a few miles from the beach near the point of landfall may see winds of 60-100 mph (strong TS to Cat 2). So don't expect to see a hurricane's peak over-water winds anywhere over the land.

[gatorcane]

WxMan good points. How about extreme southern FL, where the peninsula is essentially flat and even swampy all the way across? Wilma came ashore along the SW peninsula in the Everglades as a CAT 3 but we still had CAT 3 gusts on the east side of the coast in metro Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade.

[Derek Ortt]

you said it all Gatorcane

gusts and not sustained winds. Only the crocigators received sustained cat 3 winds, and I don't think its a good idea to ask them about it

[wxman57]

WxMan good points. How about extreme southern FL, where the peninsula is essentially flat and even swampy all the way across? Wilma came ashore along the SW peninsula in the Everglades as a CAT 3 but we still had CAT 3 gusts on the east side of the coast in metro Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade.

Wind reduction over land is a function of surface roughness. If the terrain of the swamp is marsh grass with no trees, then the winds would be stronger at the surface than across a mangrove or cypress swamp. Trees add a lot more surface friction than marsh grass.

[gatorcane]

WxMan that makes sense and thanks for the explanation.

[Patrick99]

If Wilma hadn't sat over the Yucatan, I dare say we'd have been looking at a strong Cat. 4 blanketing all of S. Florida - Okeechobee and below.

[Derek Ortt]

we came close to having a cat 4 from Wilma even with the Yucatan

With the very favorable upper conditions that Wilma experienced as it neared Florida, a strong 4 would have been likely