3/15-15/2007 Snowfall: My Estimates

[donsutherland1]

This storm will have bust potential that rivals some of the snowfall totals put out by the BUFKIT guidance. Through 18z there remains some substantial disagreements between the NAM and GFS. Nonetheless, it appears unlikely that the Washington, DC to New York City area will receive a major snowfall (widespread 6" or greater amounts). Typically, the storms that provide such snowfalls from mid-March onward occur when the trough in the East is much larger than the one that is modeled. The GFS has also trended more to the north and west than yesterday's guidance.

The following were considered in my preliminary thinking:

- historic experience (given the significant disagreements in the modeling)
- greater reliance on the ensemble means with respect to the storm's track
- role of dynamics during late-season snowstorms
- climatology


As a result, there exists the potential for some significant changes to my preliminary estimates at some point tomorrow when I review the data anew.

Preliminary Estimates:

Albany: 5"-10"
Allentown: 2"-5"
Baltimore: 1" or less
Boston: 5"-10"
Burlington: 5"-10"
Caribou: 7"-14"
Concord: 6"-12"
Hartford: 5"-10"
New York City: 2"-5"
Newark: 2"-5"
Philadelphia: 0.5"-1.5"
Portland: 5"-10"
Providence: 3"-7"
Washington, DC: DCA: 1" or less; IAD: 1" or less
White Plains: 3"-7"
Worcester: 8"-16"

[Category 5]

Just think, it was 81 today.

[goodgal996]

grr, I usually love snowstorms, but not this time.. I'm supposed to be taking my first plane ride ever out of Bradley airport tomorrow at noontime. Hopefully it won't get really snowy and windy until after that time.

[weathermom]

In the spring I have counted 136 different kinds of weather inside of 24 hours-Mark Twain

[donsutherland1]

Through 12z, there continue to be some notable differences in the modeling, though a reasonable consensus concerning the storm's track has been evolving. Early on, the NAM seems to have done a little better with respect to the mid-level temperatures. The GFS has done better with the lower-level ones. Given the level of uncertainty, a degree of continuity has also been incorporated into the revised estimates.

Revised Estimates:

Albany: 7"-14"
Allentown: 3"-7"
Baltimore: 1" or less
Boston: 5"-10"
Burlington: 7"-14"
Caribou: 8"-16"
Concord: 6"-12"
Hagerstown: 3"-7"
Harrisburg: 3"-6"
Hartford: 5"-10"
Islip: 2"-5"
Montreal: 6"-12" (15.2 cm. - 30.5 cm.)
Ottawa: 4"-8" (10.2 cm. - 20.3 cm.)
New York City: 2"-5"
Newark: 2"-5"
Philadelphia: 0.5"-1.5"
Portland: 5"-10"
Providence: 3"-7"
Toronto: 1"-3" (2.5 cm. - 7.6 cm.)
Washington, DC: DCA: 1" or less; IAD: 1"-3"
White Plains: 4"-8"
Worcester: 8"-16"

[cpdaman]

i remember a storm about 10 years ago (but two weeks later, april fools storm) where the day before temps were very warm and then the next day we got 2 feet of snow just away from the coast in se mass. i wonder if there are any similiarities in the storms, Don?

[stormraiser]

Think it was 8 years ago, because it was the year after my second daughter was born and she turns 9 this May. That would make it 99, no? I was in Hyannis at the time. Boston got 25 inches in 24 hours.

[donsutherland1]

The April Fool's Storm occurred on 3/31-4/1/1997.

[donsutherland1]

Based on a blend of the 18z guidance with the 0z NAM, my final snowfall estimates are as follows:

Final Estimates:

Albany: 12"-18"
Allentown: 4"-8"
Baltimore: 1" or less
Boston: 5"-10"
Burlington: 7"-14"
Caribou: 12"-20"
Concord: 6"-12"
Hagerstown: 3"-7"
Harrisburg: 3"-7"
Hartford: 6"-12"
Islip: 2"-5"
Montreal: 6"-12" (15.2 cm. - 30.5 cm.)
Ottawa: 4"-8" (10.2 cm. - 20.3 cm.)
New York City: 2"-5"
Newark: 2"-5"
Philadelphia: 0.5"-1.5"
Portland: 5"-10"
Providence: 3"-7"
Toronto: 1"-3" (2.5 cm. - 7.6 cm.)
Washington, DC: DCA: 1" or less; IAD: 1"-3"
White Plains: 4"-8"
Worcester: 8"-16"

[Category 5]

Just turned to sleet here. It's coming down hard too.


Hard to believe it was 70 yesterday, and 81 the day before.

[Category 5]

Some snowflakes mixing in now. Should be all snow within the hour.

[Category 5]

Back to all sleet, about a quarter inch of it so far,

[Andy_L]

wooohoooo....thanks for including Ottawa in the estimates Don. Most people seen to just include most of Ontario with Toronto's weather...and that couldn't be further from reality in most cases

BIG THANKS

Andy in Ottawa

[Nimbus]

If the radar loop is accurate all the precipitation north of Trenton NJ is still snow as of 2 PM?

Begining to look like a forecast blowout.

[angelwing]

Finally home from NJ..about 2-3 inches of sleet here

[tropicana]

Snowing in Toronto now...for about the last 45 minutes.

[Stephanie]

We have SLUSH here. A combination of some snow, alot of sleet and freezing rain. It was a white knuckle drive home from Hammonton north!

[Category 5]

2.25" of sleet here. It just turned to all snow. Winds are steady 20-30mph

[angelwing]

4 inches of sleet here and now light sleet

[Category 5]

The snow has stopped here.